Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Len Rum said:
That's a good post.
Up till last week I thought the efficacy rate was the be all and end all.
Hence Pfizer 'better' than AZ.
But as you state this is not necessarily the case , the best vaccine is probably the one that reduces serious illness and (obviously) death and they are all stated by the experts to do that, although we don't know which are the best.
However does better efficacy in reducing the number of cases cut down the risk of variants ( don't know)?
A couple of other things I'm not clear on. We are often told that in the trials no deaths or serious illness resulted in the vaccination sample. But what about the placebo group - if there were similarly no deaths or serious illness in that group? How does that enable conclusions to be drawn about the effectiveness of the vaccine?
Final point - still not entirely happy about the AZ trials being restricted to younger people, although we are told not to be concerned.
Click to expand...

As far as I know:
Q: However does better efficacy in reducing the number of cases cut down the risk of variants ( don't know)?
A: Less cases = less transmission = less occasions which can cause mutation; it therefore probably comes down to whether "better efficacy" is judged on serious illness, or not catching it at all. Efficacy itself will not affect the chance of mutations, but should reduce the number of occasions that chance can occur.

While memory may be iffy, I think placebo groups had a small number of serious illnesses, and not much more than 1-2 deaths; the difference is therefore between "none" and "some" - obviously the AZ trials (as an obvious example) had relatively few elderly triallists, so they wouldn't have been expecting many "serious" cases.

AZ trials: this is partly a matter of standard protocol being to minimise risk of exposing elderly triallists to a relatively early trial; IMO, this is a matter of a shortcut process being used, where phase 3 trials led to an emergency use order about a month later. Usual process would be multiple trials over a much longer time, trying with different age groups as they go.
I don't think there is a cause for concern - data said it worked for younger ages, and there is no actual pathogen present in it (it's the attachment part, not the active part), so there is no reason that it wouldn't work. @roubaixtuesday gave some stronger reasoning to me here:
forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk

Coronavirus (2021) thread

Scotland data: 1 death - was 3 last week 273 cases - was 278 last week 1.3% positivity - was 1.3% last week 107 patients - UP 1 on day - was 119 last week 14 Ventilated - UP 1 on day - was 20 last week Scotland - and other countries - starting to show a clear bottoming out and even slight...
forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk
 
MillionMilesAway said:
As far as I know:
Q: However does better efficacy in reducing the number of cases cut down the risk of variants ( don't know)?
A: Less cases = less transmission = less occasions which can cause mutation; it therefore probably comes down to whether "better efficacy" is judged on serious illness, or not catching it at all. Efficacy itself will not affect the chance of mutations, but should reduce the number of occasions that chance can occur.

While memory may be iffy, I think placebo groups had a small number of serious illnesses, and not much more than 1-2 deaths; the difference is therefore between "none" and "some" - obviously the AZ trials (as an obvious example) had relatively few elderly triallists, so they wouldn't have been expecting many "serious" cases.

AZ trials: this is partly a matter of standard protocol being to minimise risk of exposing elderly triallists to a relatively early trial; IMO, this is a matter of a shortcut process being used, where phase 3 trials led to an emergency use order about a month later. Usual process would be multiple trials over a much longer time, trying with different age groups as they go.
I don't think there is a cause for concern - data said it worked for younger ages, and there is no actual pathogen present in it (it's the attachment part, not the active part), so there is no reason that it wouldn't work. @roubaixtuesday gave some stronger reasoning to me here:
forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk

Coronavirus (2021) thread

Scotland data: 1 death - was 3 last week 273 cases - was 278 last week 1.3% positivity - was 1.3% last week 107 patients - UP 1 on day - was 119 last week 14 Ventilated - UP 1 on day - was 20 last week Scotland - and other countries - starting to show a clear bottoming out and even slight...
forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk
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Thanks for that.
I get better info on this forum than from any of the media outlets.
 
worsleyweb said:
I completely forgot about covid for the last hour. Shows how important it is for football to continue for me. It’s not then same but by god it’s better than nothing.
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Yeah I was 'no football' during this shitstorm but I'm shallow enough to admit I've been bouncing round the lounge today.
 
worsleyweb said:
I completely forgot about covid for the last hour. Shows how important it is for football to continue for me. It’s not then same but by god it’s better than nothing.
Click to expand...
Likewise not been on a high like the last hour or so for ages, pop in here and it's back to covid. Few more months of mass vaccines and back at city in august fingers crossed.
 
England hospital data summary

Another fall - though only a small one. Not unusual at weekend. Nor will it to be to rise tomorrow.

Down just 51 to 22, 991. It was 28, 112 last Sunday - so a fall of 5121 in the week

This is the lowest total since New Year's Day.



Ventilated patients fell by 52 to 3047. It was 3366 last Sunday.


Regionally East and Midlands went up slightly - around 40 in patients - everyone else fell a little

London and South East by the most but neither over 60,

North West fell from 3292 to 3270.


With ventilators most places fell. Indeed London fell by 39 to go below 1000 at 977. Last there exactly a month ago when rising sharply to the peak of deaths on 19 January.

Unfortunately only one area rose day to day on ventilated patients - that was North West up 12 to 346.
 
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worsleyweb said:
I completely forgot about covid for the last hour. Shows how important it is for football to continue for me. It’s not then same but by god it’s better than nothing.
Click to expand...
Yep, never watch football on TV, only go to games. Hid behind the sofa today with fingers in ear till lad shouted 4-1. Changed my mind about bringing it back today. I was wrong.
 
GM Scoreboard:

1050 - up from 968, 40.0% of North West Total which rose by by 136 to 2625. 1.1% rise on yesterday to highest in two months.

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v Today:- 1294 v 1107 v 1212 v 1050 - Lowest of the four most optimistic I can offer.



Pop Score is cases across whole pandemic v 100,000 people - rises daily but lower the better.

Weekly Pop is same measure across last 7 days only. Can rise or fall depending on if more cases or less occur today v the same day last week.


Either way Up is bad, down is good.



Manchester 215 – up from 210. Total 47, 147. Weekly 1472. Pop score up 39 to 8528. Weekly Pop down 5 to 266.

Bolton 158 - up from 125. Total cases 22, 445. Weekly 827. Pop score up 55 to 7806. Biggest jump today. Weekly Pop up 9 to 288.

Wigan 116 up from 97. Total cases 25, 695. Weekly 761. Pop score up 35 to 7818. Weekly Pop down 13 to 231. Big drop in cases versus last week is why.

Salford 109 - down from 126. Total cases 20, 404. Weekly 705. Pop score up 42 to 7883. Weekly Pop up 2 to 272.

Stockport 98 - up from from 94. Total cases 18, 078. Weekly 682. Pop score up 33 to 6161. Weekly Pop down 8 to 232.

Rochdale 73 - up from 68. Total cases 18, 697. Weekly 519. Pop score up 33 to 8407. Weekly Pop down 1 to 234.

Tameside 71 up from 60. Total cases 15, 750. Weekly 436. Pop score up 31 to 6954. Weekly Pop down 16 to 193. Huge week to week fall takes second GM borough sub 200.

Oldham 70 up from 66. Total cases 20, 510. Weekly 505. Pop score up 29 to 8650. Weekly Pop down 13 to 213.

Trafford 63 - up from 62. Total cases 14, 788. Weekly 442. Pop score up 26 to 6230. Lowest rise of the day again and picks up another 7 on Stockport's overall pop score lead cutting it to just 69. Halved in a week. Weekly Pop down 7 to 186. Best weekly Pop score in GM.

Bury 57- down from 60. Total cases 15, 203. Weekly 392. Lowest weekly total in GM again and still falling. Very consistent low numbers here daily now for over 2 weeks. Pop score up 30 to 7960. Weekly Pop down 2 to 205.


Pop Scores Today v 7 Days ago // Up/down over past week (lowest best)


Trafford 186 v 234 // down 48

Tameside 193 v 298 // down 105

Bury 205 v 257 // down 52

Oldham 213 v 258 // down 45

Wigan 231 v 269 // down 38

Stockport 232 v 266 // down 34

Rochdale 234 v 260 // down 26

Manchester 266 v 307 // down 41

Salford 272 v 291 // down 19

Bolton 288 v 287 // UP 1


Bolton still struggling a little and the falls are slowing but other than Bolton - which week to week has barely moved - everywhere still trending down and Tameside has had a particularly good week - easily the biggest fall in the past 7 days with the other 8 boroughs week yo week much the same kind of modest drop.
 
Not caught up lately with this virologist guy on Twitter but I remember from the start of the pandemic his clarity & voice of reason (he always insisted a vaccine was the only way out).

 
somapop said:
^^ the thread really needs reading as the first tweet makes it sound a little negative...
Click to expand...

I've read it and the NY times article and sadly 2021 is going to be a wash.

By the time we vaccinate for the original virus then the UK/SA variant and then whatever new variant(s) comes out it'll be over a year.

Would be interesting to hear whether the original variant with no vaccine is more, or less dangerous than the new variant with the 'version 1 vaccine' that doesn't protect as much as first thought?
 
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