Coronavirus (2021) thread

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unicorn said:
Quite a lot of catch-up in those 664 deaths too. 74 outside the last week and quite a few larger batches in East Anglia might suggest the snow affected reporting timeliness.

Still heading the right way, anyway.
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Yes there does seem to be quite a back dating audit of cases today.

The key is checking the numbers added to the totals today, yesterday, day before etc and comparing them to the add ons 7 days ago and wk before that.

Very telling as they all fall

Here are the 5 day totals for deaths assigned to the ACTUAL day for the past 3 weeks

712 - 720 - 764 - 787 (PEAK 19 Jan) - 721 - 708 - 690 - 666 - 675 - 691 - 658 - 618 - 650 - 596 - 513 - 524 - 534 - 532 - 534 - 435 - 444 (latest 5 day total for 5 Feb)

Pretty easy to see that is clearly going one way.
 
blueparrot said:
Just did a quick check, as we have been planning for a couple of years to go to South Africa next January for our 25th anniversary. Hopeful that can go ahead.
Anyway in answer to your question. On BA it won't let me book April May. It will let me book June this year. So looks like they aren't flying.
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BA (and Virgin) are only operating cargo flights to / from Johannesburg at the moment. No passenger flights to anywhere in South Africa.
 
Not sure if covered.



Manaus in Brazil. population of about 2m people. it was believed in the 1st wave they hit 76% or so of people caught it and were now at herd immunity levels ( 67% is estimated Herd Immunity ).

But in Janurary they had a major resurgence. Hospital admissions went from 550 odd in Dec to nearly 3500 in Jan.

May 2020 to Nov 2020 they had very low admissions to hospital.

4 possible explinations ( could be a factor of all )

1) Massive under reporitng in 1st wave and the blood doner tests were not remotely accurate

2) Waning immnity? was 7 or so months between waives. UK tests show this didn't happen here so this isn't looking likely

3) Antigenic escape. where the virus has changed enough to not be caught by the immune system.

4) increased transmisibility pushing the herd immunity needed higher.
 
mancity1 said:
The government on " health advice " had regions and in truth the areas outside of Greater Melbourne in Victoria were harshly treated as numbers were very low with the vast majority of shires having no covid at all.

When daily numbers hit 700 ( all a result of hotel quarantine bungling as a result of poor public policy implementation ) the justification was that people moving from Melbourne to places like Torquay which many do during holidays and on weekends would spread the virus so a police ring was placed around greater Melbourne preventing people from travelling to any other place unless it was strictly for work purposes and even then they needed a permit signed by the employer so effectively only essential goods and services to ports and supermarkets and warehouses were allowed.

We had 800 odd deaths in a national total of 909 to date.

Its not rocket science had we kept the virus outside nursing homes the death toll would have been much much lower.

We closed all passenger travel to and from all countries for many months and you still cannot leave the country outside for work or relocation.

All arrivals of returned citizens are placed in quarantine for at least 14 days but despite this various strains continue to creep into the public however since the second major lockdown in Victoria in numbers that allow contract tracing both primary and secondary to be managed reasonably effectively.

We are far more forgiving and complicit with Government Advice and Government bungling and interference into ones privacy and civil liberties.

Mini state border and hot spot lockdowns are triggered with single digit cases in fact often just one case recently bar NSW which has a right of centre government in place ( in the main ) and manages their numbers despite doing most of the heavy lifting for returned travellers and shutting down business as soon a new case in the community occurs.
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Sounds tough on some of the population but worth it in the long run, cheers.
 
1001 deaths

13, 013 cases

However 60,000 fewer pillar 1 & 2 tests yesterday

547, 937

2.4% positivity - which means around double given the multiple testing

The number of tests is similar to 2 days ago when 14, 104 cases were found.
 
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62,322 v 47,525 v 38,905 v 25,308 v 19,292 v 13,015 TODAY

Really put it in perspective how far numbers have fallen since the 62,322 on 6 January (and that was not even the highest that week as on Friday 8 Jan we were 68,053).
 
Healdplace said:
Scotland vaccination data


985, 569 first doses - 57, 447 yesterday - down from 61, 299 - second highest ever despite blizzards Nicola Sturgeon noted.

Also adding they will top one million first dose vaccinations today.

About 5,5 million people live in Scotland so it is already over 20% of the adult population.

99.8% of all older care home residents now vaccinated

96% of over 80s living in the open community

80% of those aged 75 to 79 in the open community

45% of those aged 70 to 74 in the open community
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And there it is, sorry just adding on from your stats from earlier as its a good news post and that particular milestone has now been reached!
 
blue b4 the moon said:
Was hoping we'd be 'only' in three figures today with the way it's been dropping...pretty close though and going the right way.
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That is only 262 or so added on from England out of hospital (ie care homes mainly) which is under one half what it was 2 or 3 weeks ago. Wednesday is always a big catch up day and there were quite a lot of cases added on from the past few weeks back before even Christmas in some cases today.
 
Regarding the proportion of deaths with say the over 80s.

It appears to be reducing but am I right in saying that the daily announced death toll includes many from weeks or even months ago? If that is the case then it really isn’t real time information as many of those deaths are from before vaccinations even began. I assume the government will be seeing the actual numbers of daily deaths and the proportion of those in the vaccinated groups within them. You would hope that the over 80s group in particular is falling much faster than what has been posted on here today.
 
cleavers said:
In the real world of "date of death", rather than "date reported on", we're probably around the 600-650 mark.
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Indeed.

I posted the exact England date of death numbers for the past 3 weeks a couple of pages back (at 5 days anyway so they are only up a bit from add ons since).

That number has fallen in 3 weeks from 800 a day to high 400s. So adding on the other nations (which were just 71 today from all settings) we are certainly nowhere near 1000 per day.

These reported numbers can be deceptive as Wednesday always has a large catch up of back dated deaths.

Those 664 England hospital deaths are from 43 different dates - not yesterday.

In fact only 56 actually happened yesterday!
 
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