Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Ban-jani said:
And when their death rates are far higher there will be accusations of racism.
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there are a lot of interesting podcasts out there about why BAME uptake is low, to simply blame those people is way too simplistic, i think you should broaden your knowledge in that area. It basically boils down to mistrust of governance from years of unethical healthcare research and the perception of systemic racism

please dont heap blame on these communities, this is exactly the last thing that is needed
 
shemnel said:
there are a lot of interesting podcasts out there about why BAME uptake is low, to simply blame those people is way too simplistic, i think you should broaden your knowledge in that area. It basically boils down to mistrust of governance from years of unethical healthcare research and the perception of systemic racism

please dont heap blame on these communities, this is exactly the last thing that is needed
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I am sorry but that is a crock of shit.

If working class white men were refusing the vaccine everyone would be saying how ignorant they are.

If you have a link to this “years of unethical healthcare research”, whatever that even means, I’ll read it but whoever is refusing this vaccine is a dick head in my opinion, unless you’ve got a history of severe allergic reactions to vaccination.

And that’s whatever colour or background you are.
 
shemnel said:
there are a lot of interesting podcasts out there about why BAME uptake is low, to simply blame those people is way too simplistic, i think you should broaden your knowledge in that area. It basically boils down to mistrust of governance from years of unethical healthcare research and the perception of systemic racism

please dont heap blame on these communities, this is exactly the last thing that is needed
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The important thing is to find solutions.

I’ve noticed that the great and the good get rolled out to encourage more take up but that doesn’t seem to be working. Paying for community champions isn’t doing it either. All to people who have turned their Mosques etc into vaccination centres and peole who have organised community vaccination centres eg in Whalley Range.
 
xgorton said:
If you think I'm having one now then another in 12 weeks then another in the Autumn no way,I will be having the one off Johnson & Johnson when it's available.
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It won’t be a one off, that one will need an adapted booster too. Don’t know how you think you are going to choose anyway, nor why you would want to wait.
 
Anyone have an idea of how people will need to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity ?
 
When do people think large weddings will be back on? Going to have to move ours for a second time, this week but honestly have no idea when to aim for, thinking summer 2022 but wonder if even that will be ok at this point.
 
splinter said:
Anyone have an idea of how people will need to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity ?
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It's looking increasingly unlikely that herd immunity is a realistic aim.

Ro is the R number with normal behaviour and no immunity. The formula for the fraction needed to be immune to reach herd immunity is (Ro-1)/Ro

The original variant had an Ro of ~3 but the new variants are said to be ~50% more transmissible.

If R ~5 then the fraction needed to be immune is ~80%

The vaccine is unlikely to give "sterilising immunity" ie complete protection against transmission, is not 100% effective against disease either, and reduced effectiveness against variants has been reported for some variants. Given that we're also not going to be immunising children, then reaching a complete suppression of the virus through herd immunity doesn't seem likely.

However, it's still vital as many people as possible are vaccinated, not just to protect themselves, but also because even if we haven't reached formal herd immunity, outbreaks will be much easier to contain the closer we are to that limit. There seems to be a body of opinion that current immunity levels reached through prior infection and vaccinating have helped speed the reduction in cases in the current lockdown, and that level was probably something like 20% at the start rising to maybe 30% now and over 50% in the next couple of months.

It may be that we end up similar to the flu; there's an annual booster jab but still outbreaks through the winter, dying down in the summer but never completely going away.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
is the virus just fizzing out ? very few countries have even started vaccinating.
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Lots of people said this after the first wave. They were spectacularly wrong.

Most of the world's population is in the Northern Hemisphere, and most of the Northern Hemisphere is under significant restrictions as a reaction to the second wave peaks.

However, given vaccinations and Northern Hemisphere summer coming, I'm personally very hopeful we have reached Peak Covid.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
is the virus just fizzing out ? very few countries have even started vaccinating.
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There is something happening wouldn’t like to try any explanation myself, except as you say vaccination doesn’t explain it. Seems to be driven in the main by falls across europe, ,USA, India, but South Africa too steep falls.
7 day average fallen from 750,000. 11 January to 385,000 yesterday.

1613380941195.png
 
roubaixtuesday said:
It's looking increasingly unlikely that herd immunity is a realistic aim.

Ro is the R number with normal behaviour and no immunity. The formula for the fraction needed to be immune to reach herd immunity is (Ro-1)/Ro

The original variant had an Ro of ~3 but the new variants are said to be ~50% more transmissible.

If R ~5 then the fraction needed to be immune is ~80%

The vaccine is unlikely to give "sterilising immunity" ie complete protection against transmission, is not 100% effective against disease either, and reduced effectiveness against variants has been reported for some variants. Given that we're also not going to be immunising children, then reaching a complete suppression of the virus through herd immunity doesn't seem likely.

However, it's still vital as many people as possible are vaccinated, not just to protect themselves, but also because even if we haven't reached formal herd immunity, outbreaks will be much easier to contain the closer we are to that limit. There seems to be a body of opinion that current immunity levels reached through prior infection and vaccinating have helped speed the reduction in cases in the current lockdown, and that level was probably something like 20% at the start rising to maybe 30% now and over 50% in the next couple of months.

It may be that we end up similar to the flu; there's an annual booster jab but still outbreaks through the winter, dying down in the summer but never completely going away.
Click to expand...
Quite sure I read that there’s now a study in England that is to test the AZ/Ox and Pfizer vaccines on children aged 6-16.
 
One for the vitamin D afficionados

Short version: Study claims are not backed up by the paper, but no harm in taking it regardless.

 
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