Coronavirus (2021) thread

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England vaccination data is like the other nations WAY down


Just 113, 987 first doses yesterday - down from 306, 109 day before - and 187, 246 last week on this day.

Second doses also down to 2346 from 2432.

Yesterday was the lowest EVER England vaccination total since they started publishing on Gov UK on 10 January.
 
Eds said:
If all goes well then we could expect a half full stadium for that game according to what has been announced
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DOn't think so; the "not earlier than 17 May" option is
  • In very largest outdoor seated venues such as football stadiums up to 10,000 people allowed to attend (or 1/4 full whichever is lowest)
 
MillionMilesAway said:
DOn't think so; the "not earlier than 17 May" option is
  • In very largest outdoor seated venues such as football stadiums up to 10,000 people allowed to attend (or 1/4 full whichever is lowest)
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Dail Fail must be wrong again then!

Edit: Can see why they were confused a outdoor events are 4k or 50% but outdoor seated events is 10k or 25%
 
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So much more positive after that statement from boris

seems to me the right balance , not going too quickly but every few weeks something else to look forward to And a gradual steady return to normal

now get jabbing so it can be delivered !!!
 
fair enough, it seems structured, bit miffed i cant organise a 3 household (9 person) get together for a 40th and an 80th until earliest June 21st. You can go to a bar with a load of strangers from May 17th though. I know these things are complicated, just disappointed after missing my dad's 70th last Autumn.

One serious point :- From March 29th rule of 6 or 2 households outdoors only but up to 15 parents and no limit on under 5s for outdoor activities? this is the one that looks most open to 'interpretation' to me.

Para 103: "All children will be able to access any outdoor childcare and supervised activities. Parent and child groups can also take place outdoors with a limit of 15 attendees (children under five years of age do not count towards the attendee limit.)"
 
roubaixtuesday said:
So, as predicted, the headline vaccine efficacy figures reported are somewhat misleading and the confidence intervals overlap massively.

At 4 weeks after one dose, efficacy reported.

Pfizer 76-91%, spot value 85%
AZ 73-99%, spot value 94%

Note that the AZ figure is based on just two(!) hospitalisations, the Pfizer on 18. The AZ confidence interval seems remarkably tight given it's based on only two patients, but OTOH I'm very sure they know their stats better than I do. The three week AZ figure is 72-90%, spot value 84%, based on 18 hospitalisations, which seems more soundly based.

Bottom line here is that both vaccines look very good at four weeks with a single dose, and can't be differentiated by this dataset.

Poor reporting to give the spot values, based on a poor press release which did the same, in my opinion.

They torture the data with myriad adjustments including age, sex, prexisting conditions, deprivation index and something to do with prior test results, none of which I really understand. If you just look at the base rate of hospitalisations with and without vaccine, they are far less impressive sounding, presumably because the most vulnerable are most likely to have been vaccinated.

The Pfizer one seems to drop off after 4 weeks, I've seen in claimed that may be an artefact of the low sample size.
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Sorry, is that the efficacy which drops off after 4 weeks with Pfizer? I struggle to get my head around some of the information, apologies. If so, what's it dropping to and won't this have a massive detrimental effect on delaying the 2nd dose for 12 weeks?
 
Healdplace said:
England vaccination data is like the other nations WAY down


Just 113, 987 first doses yesterday - down from 306, 109 day before - and 187, 246 last week on this day.

Second doses also down to 2346 from 2432.

Yesterday was the lowest EVER England vaccination total since they started publishing on Gov UK on 10 January.
Click to expand...

I wonder why? Low on vaccine?
 
blueparrot said:
I assume back in school will be avoiding contact, unlike karate , judo and dance.
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You think they are going to be able to stop Children playing and making contact with each other in school? They keep telling us that children are very unlikely to pass on Covid-19, and i am talking about Primary school age ie my Grandkids
 
Healdplace said:
England vaccination data is like the other nations WAY down


Just 113, 987 first doses yesterday - down from 306, 109 day before - and 187, 246 last week on this day.

Second doses also down to 2346 from 2432.

Yesterday was the lowest EVER England vaccination total since they started publishing on Gov UK on 10 January.
Click to expand...
My Dad is still trying to get in for his second dose (Pfizer). Was through the NHS but he’s not sure what’s happening now. He’s now into week five.
 
worsleyweb said:
the damage being done to kids is huge. They have to go back.
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So pupils back in schools on the 8th.

But am I right in thinking that each one will be tested at least twice on their return?

If so, in a larger comp of, say, 1000, that might entail something like 400 tests a day... can schools manage that?

And what you do with the presumably long queues of kids waiting for the test who might be infectious ?

Or if the tests are performed at home, how will schools know that the parents did their bit? Would a scan of a test result showing the number be sufficient?

And what reassurances can be given to unvaccinated staff who may possibly be at risk of long COVID or something worse?

Not having a go here. Just wondering whether anyone has thought about these potential logistical difficulties?
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
Sorry, is that the efficacy which drops off after 4 weeks with Pfizer? I struggle to get my head around some of the information, apologies. If so, what's it dropping to and won't this have a massive detrimental effect on delaying the 2nd dose for 12 weeks?
Click to expand...

Yes. I wouldn’t worry about it yet though as there’s not enough of a data set to really prove the numbers they’re saying.

Worth waiting another couple of months yet.
 
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