Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
Scotland update:

0 deaths - was 0 last week (Sunday registration means this is common)

386 cases - was 715 last week

123 Greater Glasgow, 70 Lothian, 51 Lanarkshire

4.5% positivity - was 6.6% last week

824 patients - down 13 on yesterday - was 1141 last week

71 ventilated - down 7 on yesterday - was 99 last week

Another really good set of numbers to start the week
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Good news, my Daughter and grand children live in Central Glasgow and they have been in the highest band of Lockdown for months, the kids are back in school and loving it, so fingers crossed we are on the right side of this, so we can go up there to see them in the not to distant future
 
Regional Scoreboard:

Most down. A couple up. And no - NOT the North West - though it is still highest.

But down a little to a new low for 2021.



East down 62 to 385

London UP 44 to 522

South East UP 22 to 512

South West down 55 to 253 - one of the lowest totals I have seen since last Summer.



East Midlands down 16 to 611

West Midlands down 149 to 594


North East down 50 to 276 - another number not see since last Summer.

Yorkshire down 45 to 745


And North West down 72 to 808. Just 63 ahead of Yorkshire. Closest gap in a long time.
 
Greater Manchester Highlights:

Cases 368 - which is down just 6 on yesterday but is still the lowest score since late Summer.

This does raise the % of the NW total (which fell by 72) to 45.5% but that is about where it should be on population.


Half the boroughs up and half down but none by much. And all of them down week to week - most down a lot. So very good day for the weekly Pop Scores across GM.

Every single borough under 100 and a gap between Manchester - the most at 79 - and the lowest score of 25 is just 54. Another low.

Indeed all 9 boroughs except Manchester are spaced between 25 and 45 and 6 of those boroughs have scores between 25 and 30.

These similar numbers in the lower ranges is a sign of normality returning.

Very good day in GM.
 
England hospital Data:

Not quite such good news. Though not a big disaster.

Numbers up for the first time in a while but not by much and caused mostly by London - which is up 190 - though North West up too - by 20. Everywhere else went down.

Moreover ventilators up too and - again - London was the reason. It rose by 56 - whereas the rest fell. Including North West which went below 200 on ventilators for the first time in weeks.

We will have to see what tomorrow brings to see if this is just a one day blip or becomes a stall in what have so far been excellent numbers.


Patients up from 10, 663 by 102 to 10, 765. Versus last week 14, 147 (which was itself just a fall of 3 on the day as Monday usually sees peak admission numbers from across the weekend).

Ventilators up from 1630 by 28 to 1658. Versus last week 2072.
 
Very promising figures today, and a couple of studies published today and last week showing excellent vaccine effectiveness.

So this is the last time I'll post the % over 80s deaths, which was intended as a way to see if vaccines were working.

As the pros are now all over that, this no longer adds anything, and the numbers are starting to get noisy anyway as the totals are so small now.

1614623923053.png

But you can see the nice downward trend from a month after vaccination started, as predicted.
 
UK patients total today is 12, 914. Ventilators 1812 (may be lower as Wales has not updated in days).

But not 14, 808 and 1971 as Gov UK says.


England hospital regions:

Patient // Ventilators // change in past 24 hours and v last week

East down 13 to 1100 v 1521 // down 5 to 136 v 164

London UP 190 to 2018 v 2737 // UP 56 to 511 v 653 Big increase in both measures skew the numbers today

Midlands down 25 to 2458 v 3080 // down 9 to 349 v 421

NE & Yorks down 5 to 1742 v 2118 // down 2 to 217 v 248

North West UP 20 to 1622 v 2078 // down 7 to 196 v 256 A small patient rise like last Monday.

South East down 59 to 1354 v 1860 // UP 1 to 191 v 234

South West down 6 to 471 v 743 // down 6 to 58 v 96
 
The top 5 boroughs in England for highest case numbers via weekly Pop Score are all in the Midlands.

This is 5 day old data remember.

They are Corby 294, Peterborough 232, Fenland 231, Leicester 230 and North Warwickshire 215.

Ist, 2nd and 4th on that list are falling not rising.

And these numbers are big only relatively. In the late autumn/early Winter they would not have made the top 100. When Kent and London areas were up to 1200 at one point.

Bury, Bolton, Stockport and Tameside are all in the top 30 in 12th, 14th, 25th and 29th

Only Stockport was rising, the others falling.

But all have been falling since and Stockport by a lot.

Unlikely anywhere in GM will be this high by the time the data catches up with now and not last week.

Rochdale in 35th, Wigan in 45th and Salford 49th also in the top 50 but the same applies to them.

Manchester at 57th and Oldham at 61st with Trafford way ahead of them at 111st.

Cheshire East by the way for Andy Hinch fell off the radar weeks ago hence the lack of reports in here.

It sits at 153 rd on that list with a Pop score of just 90 - below everywhere in GM now.
 
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associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

This modelling paper (11th Feb) suggest the real effects of vaccination to be seen towards the end of march or so

I must admit I'm still finding the hospitalisation rate and deaths of over 80s a little confusing, ie a bit high, but then perhaps we haven't quite waited long enough

Edit; god knows why the link is going on about cookies, but it works
 
My lad is in Czech Republic and they are struggling now :-(
I hope he can get a vaccine soon but I doubt it.
I haven't seen him since February 2019 as last year's trip was cancelled and now it looks like this year's could be too.
I'm just hoping he can come to us instead, perhaps later in the year, but I am worried about the whole thing over there now. Czech did really well at the beginning, but it's not good there now :-(
Sometimes I wish he had never gone.
 
shemnel said:

Error - Cookies Turned Off

associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

This modelling paper (11th Feb) suggest the real effects of vaccination to be seen towards the end of march or so

I must admit I'm still finding the hospitalisation rate and deaths of over 80s a little confusing, ie a bit high, but then perhaps we haven't quite waited long enough

Edit; god knows why the link is going on about cookies, but it works
Click to expand...

I think the main point that comes out is that ICU impact is much later than deaths, because ICU median age is ~60, whereas deaths median age is ~80. So the earlier vaccinating of 80+ means deaths fall earlier than ICU.

Just from a quick skim, might well have misconstrued something.
 
mackenzie said:
My lad is in Czech Republic and they are struggling now :-(
I hope he can get a vaccine soon but I doubt it.
I haven't seen him since February 2019 as last year's trip was cancelled and now it looks like this year's could be too.
I'm just hoping he can come to us instead, perhaps later in the year, but I am worried about the whole thing over there now. Czech did really well at the beginning, but it's not good there now :-(
Sometimes I wish he had never gone.
Click to expand...

The situation obviously isn't good here. Rising numbers of cases with one of the highest infection rates worldwide, high numbers of deaths and nowhere near enough vaccines all point to a pretty bleak situation.

However, the govt have put new measures in place though for at least the next 3 weeks which hopefully should lead to a fall in numbers and vaccines are supposed to be arriving in greater numbers in the near future so it is anticipated that we'll be out of the woods by the end of Summer, so there is some reason for optimism.

It has been decided that vaccines will be allocated based on age and from today over 70s can apply for vaccination, as can teachers. My mum has been able to get both her jabs (she's in her 80s) but it is unlikely that I'll get mine until later Spring/early Summer. I was on the extremely clinically vulnerable list in the Uk but that counts for nothing here as it's purely based on age, not medical need.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
IMO we should be prioritising vaccination of prisoners and POs. I would happily delay my own highly anticipated jab to enable that.

I don't expect it to be a popular opinion!
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Even in that prison above which is full of sex offenders? Not sure how they are more deserving than teachers but each to their own.
 
KnaresboroughBlue said:
The situation obviously isn't good here. Rising numbers of cases with one of the highest infection rates worldwide, high numbers of deaths and nowhere near enough vaccines all point to a pretty bleak situation.

However, the govt have put new measures in place though for at least the next 3 weeks which hopefully should lead to a fall in numbers and vaccines are supposed to be arriving in greater numbers in the near future so it is anticipated that we'll be out of the woods by the end of Summer, so there is some reason for optimism.

It has been decided that vaccines will be allocated based on age and from today over 70s can apply for vaccination, as can teachers. My mum has been able to get both her jabs (she's in her 80s) but it is unlikely that I'll get mine until later Spring/early Summer. I was on the extremely clinically vulnerable list in the Uk but that counts for nothing here as it's purely based on age, not medical need.
Click to expand...
That's good news at least, some optimism.
Thanks for the update KB xx
 
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