Coronavirus (2021) thread

[cleavers]

Not yet. It's almost entirely the result of the hardest lock down in Europe right now.

The vaccination should enable us to lift restrictions without cases during again, but has had only a small impact on car's and deaths so far. The lock down has crushed them.

I don't understand why people find this so hard to work out.

As things stood yesterday less than 3% of the population has had both doses of vaccine, so while first dose roll out is impressive and offers some protection, we are a long way from full vaccine protection at this point.

I would have also thought that the vaccines that were rolled out im Jan would have had an impact on cases and therefore deaths? Why would this not be the case?

Nobody is saying it hasn't had some impact, but the biggest impact is through the lack of connections between people, because most sensible people have largely followed the rules.

As I posted a couple of days ago, I know of one person who had both jabs by early January, who subsequently went into hospital with another issue in late Feb, tested negative, was sent home after a few days in hospital, then fell ill, was taken back to hospital, tested positive, and died a few days ago, there is no "full" protection.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales vaccination update:


1, 019, 210 first doses given - 11, 819 today - was 9095 yesterday & 7816 last week

206, 394 second doses given - 14, 364 today - was 8201 yesterday & 7897 last week

 

[cleavers]

I follow you as a font of all knowledge and ask if you know what the vaccinating situation is in Manchester city for those aged 64.

If you or someone you know is 64 (or even over 55 now), then you can book a vaccination online, it doesn't matter where you are.

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App today shows just a small fall today to 5731 from 5862 in the report today of new symptom input creating a predicted case number.

Yesterday it was pretty close to the cases tests we later actually saw (which was only 96 fewer than Zoe predicted at 5766)

 

[Healdplace]

Unfortunately I think it is looking like we will have an increase in cases again today. The early data from Scotland shows 691 cases. And 20 deaths. Cases up. Deaths down significantly.

Will post the full data later as it will not appear until about 2 pm today.

Inevitably school returns are going to create case rises. So this is not the big deal it might seem. Especially as positivity keeps dropping which is because far more tests are being done daily and almost inevitably you test more - you find more - as a lot of cases are asymptomatic and without all this testing would never get picked up as they did not during the first wave last Spring.

You would imagine England would be on trend too - especially if they do anything like the extraordinary number of tests yesterday that obliterated the previous UK record at over one a half million in one day.

That is 2% of the UK population tested in a single day. A lot of them schoolchildren I assume.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Unfortunately I think it is looking like we will have an increase in cases again today. The early data from Scotland shows 691 cases - down week to week - as is the positivity - from 3.9% to 3.1%

Scotland is up week on week from 543 cases and 2.6% positivity last week, I think your figures are perhaps from 2 weeks ago.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland is up week on week from 543 cases and 2.6% positivity last week, I think your figures are perhaps from 2 weeks ago.

I had corrected it. But thanks. It was the week before you are correct. I was writing it from a BBC report. Not a great idea given what I said earlier. Then got distracted by a phone call from Sky before I checked my own data.

I think the media are out to wreck this forum!

 

[ayrshire_blue]

I had corrected it. But thanks. I was writing it from a BBC report. Not a great idea given what I said earlier. Then got distracted by a phone call from Sky before I checked my own data.

I think the media are out to wreck this forum!

Haha no problem, wasn't having a go by any means...just saw the figures earlier as they were released particularly early this morning for a change. Second perhaps concerning week on week rise, I do wonder if this is an effect from the early primary schools and nurseries returning 2 and a half weeks ago now or if its unrelated.

 

[worsleyweb]

I don't understand why people find this so hard to work out.

As things stood yesterday less than 3% of the population has had both doses of vaccine, so while first dose roll out is impressive and offers some protection, we are a long way from full vaccine protection at this point.


Nobody is saying it hasn't had some impact, but the biggest impact is through the lack of connections between people, because most sensible people have largely followed the rules.

As I posted a couple of days ago, I know of one person who had both jabs by early January, who subsequently went into hospital with another issue in late Feb, tested negative, was sent home after a few days in hospital, then fell ill, was taken back to hospital, tested positive, and died a few days ago, there is no "full" protection.

We cant stop the world until we have full protection. Your comments don't take into play the fact that significant trial samples and now real life evidence show both vaccines give 90% plus immunity after 21 days of the first dose. The second dose is more so that it last a significant period of time. One very sad anecdotal incident does not change that and no one is saying that the lockdown has not had a huge impact on cases but it is being released in line with those that will die of this being 90% protected. As of today 23/24 million people approximately will have had that first dose. And they were the ones most likely to die of this. Add into the mix the news that it works well on the most worrying variants.

 

[M18CTID]

I don't understand why people find this so hard to work out.

As things stood yesterday less than 3% of the population has had both doses of vaccine, so while first dose roll out is impressive and offers some protection, we are a long way from full vaccine protection at this point.


Nobody is saying it hasn't had some impact, but the biggest impact is through the lack of connections between people, because most sensible people have largely followed the rules.

As I posted a couple of days ago, I know of one person who had both jabs by early January, who subsequently went into hospital with another issue in late Feb, tested negative, was sent home after a few days in hospital, then fell ill, was taken back to hospital, tested positive, and died a few days ago, there is no "full" protection.

The concerning thing I take from that is that someone died of Covid some 2 months after their second jab. I'm not expecting the vaccines to prevent deaths completely but I thought data had showed they were close to 100% effective in preventing fatalities

 

[cleavers]

We cant stop the world until we have full protection.

I never said we should, in fact we never will, but today, we are still a long way from having even 90% protection for adults in the UK, I'm nearly 60 and still have none, that is how far away we are.

There are still more than enough people left unprotected in the UK for another significant wave to happen if we are not cautious, but luckily/hopefully that is not the road we are following.

The current reduction in case/hospital/death numbers is largely because of the lockdown, with some useful help from vaccines in the oldest age groups, but unless they had underlying reasons for early vaccination, most under 70's don't yet have the '3 week after' protection.

 

[worsleyweb]

I never said we should, in fact we never will, but today, we are still a long way from having even 90% protection for adults in the UK, I'm nearly 60 and still have none, that is how far away we are.

There are still more than enough people left unprotected in the UK for another significant wave to happen if we are not cautious, but luckily/hopefully that is not the road we are following.

The current reduction in case/hospital/death numbers is largely because of the lockdown, with some useful help from vaccines in the oldest age groups, but unless they had underlying reasons for early vaccination, most under 70's don't yet have the '3 week after' protection.

Which is why pubs are shut for another 2 months etc etc.

 

[cleavers]

The concerning thing I take from that is that someone died of Covid some 2 months after their second jab. I'm not expecting the vaccines to prevent deaths completely but I thought data had showed they were close to 100% effective in preventing fatalities

The most worrying thing about it for me, is that had the person not had to go to hospital in the first place, they would still be alive, because the only place they could have caught it was in hospital, and they were initially in a part of the hospital well away from any covid wards. I only posted it as an example of the fact there is no such full protection for those vaccinated.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I thought data had showed they were close to 100% effective in preventing fatalities

Caution: following is from memory. I may have some things wrong.

Data from both AZ and Pfizer had no deaths on either placebo or active arm.
=> no *direct* conclusion on fatalities can be taken from the trial.

Data from AZ showed 10 severe cases on placebo, zero on active
=> "100%" effective against severe disease. BUT with huge uncertainty with just 10 cases.

Data from Pfizer showed 9 severe cases on placebo, one on active
=> "90%" effective against severe disease. Again, huge uncertainty on the real figure

The real world population dying from COVID is likely more frail than the trial population, so might be expected to give worse results.

The emerging data on both vaccines in the UK and Israel looks really good, though I don't recall the figures exactly I think a confidence interval of 70-95% ish was quoted for both vaccines against hospitalisation.

I don't think there has been a figure quoted in real world use against deaths yet.

Short version: They're very good, but probably not 100% and no-one knows just how good against deaths yet.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The most worrying thing about it for me, is that had the person not had to go to hospital in the first place, they would still be alive, because the only place they could have caught it was in hospital, and they were initially in a part of the hospital well away from any covid wards. I only posted it as an example of the fact there is no such full protection for those vaccinated.

Another reason why getting case loads down is important and we can't just let the virus run through the relatively invulnerable unvaccinated population. Hospitals can't be isolated from the wider community.

 

[Mike Cledford]

I am certainly not that I should stress.

But in my experience it varies from practice to practice. It is not based on where you live but your GP and their lists.

In my family a younger husband has had the jab versus his (several years older) wife despite living in the same house because they are registered at different practices.

But almost everywhere should be well through the 60 - 65s by now. The percentage numbers are quite high in that range for those having had the first jab.

I believe you can go onto the actual national site and self book in that age range now and you do not need to wait for a letter. Which in almost every case (my own included) comes AFTER the person has been contacted already by phone call or text or taken the initiative and booked themselves.

Thanks once again

 

[unicorn]

Unfortunately I think it is looking like we will have an increase in cases again today.

Interested in views on what we see as a "safe level" where local track and trace could be effective

Dr Andrew Lee, Reader in Public Health at Sheffield Uni was on LBC last night and mentioned 50 weekly cases per 100,000 as a rate similar to what we had last summer before the September spike. We're not TOO far above that 50 rate right now, I guess. Can't see the rate getting much below 50 with schools back.

 

[Marvin]

We cant stop the world until we have full protection. Your comments don't take into play the fact that significant trial samples and now real life evidence show both vaccines give 90% plus immunity after 21 days of the first dose. The second dose is more so that it last a significant period of time. One very sad anecdotal incident does not change that and no one is saying that the lockdown has not had a huge impact on cases but it is being released in line with those that will die of this being 90% protected. As of today 23/24 million people approximately will have had that first dose. And they were the ones most likely to die of this. Add into the mix the news that it works well on the most worrying variants.

You are quoting trial data measured against the wild-type virus.

If that was the real world then I would agree with you. This would be a formality. The timescale would be set by the population and the vaccination rate. That seems to be how you are viewing this but when we learned of the variants then this problem became more complex and you don't want to know about that.

Well we don't have the original virus in the UK any more. South Africa has another strain. The current virus spontaneously mutates into forms that are similar to the SA variant and we are going to pre-select those strains through vaccination and then when the lockdown lifts they have the opportunity to grow. Therefore we still have a problem that is going to drag on until at least the Summer/Autumn when another vaccine will be introduced.

Imo it's on the decline but it will be like ever-decreasing circles and it will be long and drawn out.

 

[Mike Cledford]

If you or someone you know is 64 (or even over 55 now), then you can book a vaccination online, it doesn't matter where you are.

Thanks will pass that on.

 

[Healdplace]

Haha no problem, wasn't having a go by any means...just saw the figures earlier as they were released particularly early this morning for a change. Second perhaps concerning week on week rise, I do wonder if this is an effect from the early primary schools and nurseries returning 2 and a half weeks ago now or if its unrelated.

Sorry, I know you weren't - was just distracted by Sky keep calling me trying to get me to film something, Totally non Covid related. More to do with my day job But I have long retired from that kind of thing so it has thrown me a bit off concentration.

Will try to focus better this afternoon.

And, yes, I hope these upticks are just what will be largely asymptomatic youngsters a product of the much higher testing going on. As the falling positivity implies.