I think the whole thing stinks too be honest and smacks of a complete u turn, i was staggered about this tonight too be honest.They are still saying all will be done by July. Just that they are prioritising the over 50s during the shortage next month. When they also have to do many more second jabs for the over 60s. Which they have to do first because of the 12 week time table. It is unfortunate but unless the delay lasts longer than 4 weeks should not mean the end of July schedule for all adults is lost. Just reorganised.
I think the whole thing stinks too be honest and smacks of a complete u turn, i was staggered about this tonight too be honest.
That press conference was an absolute car crash tonight. Hancock is an idiot
I dont believe a word they say on the dates and that commitment to end of july doesn't make sense if they are going to pause a few weeks.did you read the above post?
They aren’t pausing.I dont believe a word they say on the dates and that commitment to end of july doesn't make sense if they are going to pause a few weeks.
I've no idea what the July reference means.
We will not see a high death toll returning
Ah ok. I though you had to stay unblinded to continue. Yes, I’ve got the Novavax jab booked for April 1st. I could have had the NHS one by now, but wouldn’t have managed the 2nd dose before June. Whereas my second Novavax is April 22nd.We were down there today for bloods so she's still on it mate even unblinded.
I took your previous post to mean you were booked in with the NHS but you mean with Novovax from your comments.
keep politics out of this thread ffs.
It's a supply issue which would be factored into targetI dont believe a word they say on the dates and that commitment to end of july doesn't make sense if they are going to pause a few weeks.
Ah right, yes, it appears that was the case because it was summer. I expect the same to happen across the continent again this year.That the figures were much better in July last year but the pandemic wasn't over
If we just opened up now, we absolutely would.
Do you ever listen to what is actually said instead of putting you're own interpretation on what you think was said.I think the whole thing stinks too be honest and smacks of a complete u turn, i was staggered about this tonight too be honest.
That press conference was an absolute car crash tonight. Hancock is an idiot
Ah right, yes, it appears that was the case because it was summer. I expect the same to happen across the continent again this year.
I don't propose fully opening up but consider this:
We had a small amount of excess deaths at the end of Feb/start of March, an amount that we would never consider worthy of even the most minor restrictions.
Those people sadly caught this virus at the start of February.
By the time there is anything resembling a substantial reopening of the economy (mid-April) it will be 2.5 months since the point at which infections were at an entirely tolerable level.
Given the costs of these lockdowns, that is an absurdly slow timetable, unfathomably slow, in fact. And that is without considering the millions of efficacious vaccines that have been administered in that time frame.
Not just my interpretation looking at sky news, bbc etc they suggest that Hancock has skated over the supply issue and it was a very poor and disappointing press conference this evening from him, exactly my take on it.Do you ever listen to what is actually said instead of putting you're own interpretation on what you think was said.
Your maths here is contingent on a return to complete 'normality' tomorrow and a constant growth rate which in itself is impossible as we vaccinate 3m per week, hence a continually diminishing susceptible population.The doubling time of the virus unsuppressed was about 3 days.
So if 50% of people are immune, if completely open, that'll increase to 6 days (I'm not exactly sure if that translates directly with the maths of epidemiology, but it'll not be far off I wager). Let's call it a week.
Cases now: 5,000/day
4x doubling to mid april: 80,000/day, same rate as the peak in January (and yes, less deaths because of vaccines, but still very bad).
ie it's still got the potential to kick off massively, hence the caution.
I think opening the schools first, then seeing how that goes was very sensible.
I bet the govt has in mind to accelerate if there's no significant uptick with the schools. Should have a good idea on that in a week or so.
According to the FT, the issue appears to be the same that has hampered the EU AZ program, specifically AZ not meeting its UK supply commitments.
Your maths here is contingent on a return to complete 'normality' tomorrow and a constant growth rate which in itself is impossible as we vaccinate 3m per week, hence a continually diminishing susceptible population.
And, as you correctly referred, we have removed a large % of possible deaths with the groups vaccinated so far.
Set against the NHS cost/benefit QALY measures, a continuing lockdown of this significance, at this stage, would be laughed out of the room.
According to the FT, the issue appears to be the same that has hampered the EU AZ program, specifically AZ not meeting its UK supply commitments.
Not just my interpretation looking at sky news, bbc etc they suggest that Hancock has skated over the supply issue and it was a very poor and disappointing press conference this evening from him, exactly my take on it.
Your maths here is contingent on a return to complete 'normality' tomorrow and a constant growth rate which in itself is impossible as we vaccinate 3m per week, hence a continually diminishing susceptible population.
And, as you correctly referred, we have removed a large % of possible deaths with the groups vaccinated so far.
Set against the NHS cost/benefit QALY measures, a continuing lockdown of this significance, at this stage, would be laughed out of the room.