Coronavirus (2021) thread

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MCFC_ Phil said:
Obviously not. But the risks increase. We'll be ok to go to Israel and the UAE, maybe even Greenland. Variants per se are not the issue, it's the variant that outwits the vaccine that is
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I get that. But when does it end then? Variants will go on forever. Viruses mutate. That’s what they do. We need to learn to live with it. Updated vaccines annually. I believe It might be limited countries to start with especially in Europe while they catch up with vaccinations but some places are re opening borders already to vaccinated visitors such as Iceland. Others will follow
 
GM Weekly Pop Scores after today:~

Borough / Score Today / Score 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop scores going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop Score is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Salford 112 / 114 / down 2 Testing positive 8.7%

Tameside 110 / 114 / down 4 Testing positive 7.8%

Bolton 102 / 96 / UP 6 Testing positive 8.7%

Wigan 98 / 100 / down 2 Testing positive 8.6%

Oldham 97 / 100 down 3 Testing positive 9.4%

Rochdale 89 / 126 / down 37 Testing positive 9.2%

Bury 84 / 76 UP 8 Testing positive 8.8%

Manchester 82 / 94 / down 12 Testing positive 9.3%

Stockport 78 / 92 / down 14 Testing positive 6.9%

Trafford 37 / 70 / down 33 Testing positive 6.7%


Today's readjustment put most places up but Rochdale and Manchester fell week to week and Stockport rose the least from its big fall yesterday so all three did well out of today

Salford has been having a few high scores this week and stays in top slot. Though Tameside has been struggling a bit too of late and closed the gap and risk taking it over again.

Rochdale the real winners and fell again today after a week of falls that sees them falling day to day this week more than anyone.

As for Trafford - inevitably after yesterday's lowest in half a year of just 2 it went up but stays in the 30s in weekly Pop score miles ahead of the rest.

Bury rose a lot and Stockport not much allowing it to overtake Bury and go second behind Trafford resuming the battle they had all last Summer for best Pop score and cases in GM.

That competition is still very one way as Stockport still trails Trafford by 167 with the gap increasing day by day, Stockport will likely exit the 6000 club next week and after it was the other way round for most of last year leave Trafford as the only GM borough in that lower level. Probably for some time.

At least with GM scores so low these days it will be a long time - if ever - before Oldham reaches the 10.000 club, which TEN other boroughs have already done when it was last autumn a close thing between Oldham and Blackburn for who would go into the next unclaimed highest 1000 club.

Blackburn won that race to 9000 just. But is now a VERY long way ahead of Oldham and one of two places in the 11,000 club and with a score of 11, 769 very likely will make it to the 12, 000 club before Oldham gets near the 10K one from its current score of 9390 - which is the highest in GM.

The three boroughs with the best Pop score now (Trafford, Stockport and Bury - with the welcome but unexpected arrival of Manchester alongside) were last Summer the ones then vying for lowest cases and other records every day against each other so it is a good sign seeing that pattern reappear.

Normality is returning.
 
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Apologies for The Sun link, but I’m not a paying subscriber of The Telegraph, anyway it’s a “funny” article about the potential gobby EU and their threats....

www.thesun.co.uk

Pfizer warns EU not to block vaccine exports as essential ingredients made in UK

PFIZER has urged the EU to back down on its threats to block vaccine exports to the UK as essential ingredients are made in Yorkshire. The drugmaker warned that production could “grind to a h…
www.thesun.co.uk www.thesun.co.uk
 
Tonster said:
I get that. But when does it end then? Variants will go on forever. Viruses mutate. That’s what they do. We need to learn to live with it. Updated vaccines annually. I believe It might be limited countries to start with especially in Europe while they catch up with vaccinations but some places are re opening borders already to vaccinated visitors such as Iceland. Others will follow
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But the point is that JUST FOR THIS YEAR it makes sense to not have foreign holidays, let everyone catch up on vaccinations and see where we are later in year. Everyone is fed up of lockdowns.
 
Rammy Blue said:
Apologies for The Sun link, but I’m not a paying subscriber of The Telegraph, anyway it’s a “funny” article about the potential gobby EU and their threats....

www.thesun.co.uk

Pfizer warns EU not to block vaccine exports as essential ingredients made in UK

PFIZER has urged the EU to back down on its threats to block vaccine exports to the UK as essential ingredients are made in Yorkshire. The drugmaker warned that production could “grind to a h…
www.thesun.co.uk www.thesun.co.uk
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Just don't. We'll have a raiding party beaming down from the Politics Forum before you know it.
 
Rammy Blue said:
But the point is that JUST FOR THIS YEAR it makes sense to not have foreign holidays, let everyone catch up on vaccinations and see where we are later in year. Everyone is fed up of lockdowns.
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My feelings exactly. It's not much to ask is it. People saying we could holiday in Europe are off their heads
 
Bumped into a couple of runners I know from running along the river Mersey (one I also know from the gym).
Both fit as fiddles: one early 50’s the other in his 30’s. Both sub 20 min 5kers.
I was walking the dog as I’m still nowhere near running (definitely long covid at this 3 months on stage).
The younger guy mentioned he had it last year and went on for about 3 months (and still not 100%) but also mentioned a couple of other really fit running guys who caught it really bad too.

Really wish those remaining deniers would listen...they have the empathy of a rock.
 
MCFC_ Phil said:
Obviously not. But the risks increase. We'll be ok to go to Israel and the UAE, maybe even Greenland. Variants per se are not the issue, it's the variant that outwits the vaccine that is
Click to expand...

What about the variant that doesn’t make anyone ill, but is more contagious and gives anyone that catches it antibodies against any other variant effectively ending the pandemic naturally? Based on no variants outwitting the vaccine, that is just as likely.
 
True_Blue69 said:
What about the variant that doesn’t make anyone ill, but is more contagious and gives anyone that catches it antibodies against any other variant effectively ending the pandemic naturally? Based on no variants outwitting the vaccine, that is just as likely.
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If it is as likely then where is it? The variants we are tracking are variant in respect of the spike protein sequence which affects its binding ability to the human respiratory cell. We should expect more single point mutations that gradually make it more effective.
 
  • Where is the Moderna vaccine and what happened to UMRA approval of J&J and Novovax vaccines? In the pipeline?

  • Why is is that UK and Europe are so very reliant on overseas vaccine manufacture e.g. India? I know there are UK and European plants but it seems that India seems to be producing half of AZ's vaccine supply. The Vaccine taskforce seems to have done a good job in agreeing contracts with vaccine groups at an early date but manufacturing capacity seems to be a bottleneck that wasn't addressed? I say that knowing very little about bioreactors but I would have thought that a government could encourage diversified production given 1 years notice?
 
Marvin said:
If it is as likely then where is it? The variants we are tracking are variant in respect of the spike protein sequence which affects its binding ability to the human respiratory cell. We should expect more single point mutations that gradually make it more effective.
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Where’s the one you seem to crave that will avoid all vaccines? Nowhere to be seen just like the mythical one I described.
 
Marvin said:
  • Where is the Moderna vaccine and what happened to UMRA approval of J&J and Novovax vaccines? In the pipeline?

  • Why is is that UK and Europe are so very reliant on overseas vaccine manufacture e.g. India? I know there are UK and European plants but it seems that India seems to be producing half of AZ's vaccine supply. The Vaccine taskforce seems to have done a good job in agreeing contracts with vaccine groups at an early date but manufacturing capacity seems to be a bottleneck that wasn't addressed? I say that knowing very little about bioreactors but I would have thought that a government could encourage diversified production given 1 years notice?
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Moderna - first doses due in April, apparently.

UMRA? Do you mean MHRA? J&J have only just filed, at the end of February. That's less than a month, and it's all but inconceivable that something would be authorised that fast.
Novavax hope for approval in the UK in May.

AZ have formed partnerships with other companies to make the vaccine - there is no history with AZ making vaccines, and they do not have their own facilities appropriate for it. The contracts were signed long before anyone had worked out what was needed to make them, so they haven't had a year's notice - AZ was only authorised in the UK at the end of December. You also need staff trained to run them, and regulatory assessment of the plant to be able to use new equipment.

There simply aren't that many large scale manufacturing companies for this type of vaccine in Europe - it's also far more expensive than to make vaccines in India. Reagent production, service supply (electricity/water), vaccine production, bottling - it's not a one-stop process, hence the UK making stuff in Oxford or Stoke and bottling in Wrexham (the last two are definitely partnerships, and are not AZ sites).
 
True_Blue69 said:
What about the variant that doesn’t make anyone ill, but is more contagious and gives anyone that catches it antibodies against any other variant effectively ending the pandemic naturally? Based on no variants outwitting the vaccine, that is just as likely.
Click to expand...

I think that's a scientifically illogical construct.

There is no direct connection between contagiousness, lack of symptoms and antibody production, and imagining such a thing is hope not science. No-one knows what would do all of those things, and it's therefore hypothetical.
It is far more likely that a variant avoids the vaccine as it is known how that can happen, and has happened.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
I think that's a scientifically illogical construct.

There is no direct connection between contagiousness, lack of symptoms and antibody production, and imagining such a thing is hope not science. No-one knows what would do all of those things, and it's therefore hypothetical.
It is far more likely that a variant avoids the vaccine as it is known how that can happen, and has happened.
Click to expand...

So it’s scientifically impossible for the a weaker strain of the virus that is less likely to make you ill to emerge but can still cause the body to create antibodies?
 
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