Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueHammer85]

Can safely say everyone I know has given up on the lockdown/ social distancing , my mum isolated for a year but now she is having us over, her friends and other family. All my mates having gatherings , I don’t know anyone who’s sticking to outside only rule at the moment.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Can safely say everyone I know has given up on the lockdown/ social distancing , my mum isolated for a year but now she is having us over, her friends and other family. All my mates having gatherings , I don’t know anyone who’s sticking to outside only rule at the moment.

I think it was inevitable once they relaxed the rules. People feel a bit safer after jab and not seen family for a while. It’s not warm enough to sit outside all day yet either. Probably see a slight spike in cases shortly.

 

[unicorn]

Absolutely, though most of the deaths were saved by lock down rather than vaccines. Their benefit is more now and into the future.

Agree, and still plenty of people will tell you (wrongly) that lockdown had no impact at all on case numbers.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Agree, and still plenty of people will tell you (wrongly) that lockdown had no impact at all on case numbers.

The stats would be even worse but for the voluntary lockdown that happened in the week before the Government’s first wave lockdown (people not using public transport, working from home, use of hand sanitizer etc). It’s an indictment of the Government’s mistakes in the early days that the population knew what to do before they did.

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Can safely say everyone I know has given up on the lockdown/ social distancing , my mum isolated for a year but now she is having us over, her friends and other family. All my mates having gatherings , I don’t know anyone who’s sticking to outside only rule at the moment.

I think a lot of it comes down to how people define 'safe'. Officials tell us they won't do XYZ until it is safe and then proceed to depress everyone with more warnings about lockdowns, waves etc. However, more and more people are finding themselves not feeling 'unsafe' and adjusting their own risk assessed behaviour as a result. People can get angsty about it but that's the real world and I'm sure the behaviour scientists will have known this for ages.

it's seeming more and more like the epidemiologists' definition of 'safe' is almost zero risk which of course is never going to happen and so I'm becoming more convinced than ever that the end of this pamdemic (in the UK at least) will be a societal one because the medics simply seem to always want to push the line further away rather than getting over it. Whitty is right that Covid will almost certainly become a disease we live with and I suspect the people will decide when they've had enough and how 'unsafe' they feel no matter how many graphs Ferguson etc wheel out.

 

[unicorn]

Can safely say everyone I know has given up on the lockdown/ social distancing , my mum isolated for a year but now she is having us over, her friends and other family. All my mates having gatherings , I don’t know anyone who’s sticking to outside only rule at the moment.

I can't get my Mum and Dad (mid-80s) to even leave the house and they had their second Pfizer dose on 3 January. I stood in the garden and talked to them last week and it was clear the last year has terrified them, and their many friends, into staying at home "until it's over". Their little patch of the Fens has hardly had a case, let alone a death, for weeks and they don't know anyone who has had Covid.

 

[Franny's toilet roll]

Nature.com lol. Is that a top shelfer??

if it was a top shelfer you might have read it
The nexus between Sage and ministers is key. Minutes have already shown that, by 10 March, Sage warned community transmission was under way, 500,000 people could die and care homes needed “special consideration”. The Guardian March 2021 analysis

Still 500,000 was being touted by Sage and it was being reported . If it passed you by what more can i say

 

[roubaixtuesday]

if it was a top shelfer you might have read it
The nexus between Sage and ministers is key. Minutes have already shown that, by 10 March, Sage warned community transmission was under way, 500,000 people could die and care homes needed “special consideration”. The Guardian March 2021 analysis

Still 500,000 was being touted by Sage and it was being reported . If it passed you by what more can i say

500,000 uncontrolled.

250,000 if mitigated (peak reduced but not suppressed to R<1) were the predictions with the information at the time.

With what we know now, both were likely underestimates.

 

[BlueHammer85]

I can't get my Mum and Dad (mid-80s) to even leave the house and they had their second Pfizer dose on 3 January. I stood in the garden and talked to them last week and it was clear the last year has terrified them, and their many friends, into staying at home "until it's over". Their little patch of the Fens has hardly had a case, let alone a death, for weeks and they don't know anyone who has had Covid.

that’s sad , think a lot of people are so consumed in News that it weighs heavy on them

 

[Summerbuzz]

if it was a top shelfer you might have read it
The nexus between Sage and ministers is key. Minutes have already shown that, by 10 March, Sage warned community transmission was under way, 500,000 people could die and care homes needed “special consideration”. The Guardian March 2021 analysis

Still 500,000 was being touted by Sage and it was being reported . If it passed you by what more can i say

He's shining you on.

I would love there to be a wank mag called Nature tho. PHD's in glasses and white coats, teaching us about secondary sexual characteristics.

'We secretly fantasise about me getting Cited by all comers', says Dr X, 42, senior research assistant at John Hopkins - whose body of work was submitted to "Nature's Wives" by hubby Dr Y.V.P, who says he mostly wants to see some healthy reproduction.

'I want you to scatter your data all over my regression curves. You can mine my stuff whenever you want! We can even do it online, if you have a big enough pipe!'

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Can safely say everyone I know has given up on the lockdown/ social distancing , my mum isolated for a year but now she is having us over, her friends and other family. All my mates having gatherings , I don’t know anyone who’s sticking to outside only rule at the moment.

We are.
Let’s hope you don’t have any family deaths because of your scant disregard of advice.

 

[crooky]

We are.
Let’s hope you don’t have any family deaths because of your scant disregard of advice.

Classy...

Cases are low and a lot of people's older immediate family now have some level of protection with one jab. So it's not that hard to understand that people will want to start pushing the rules.

 

[BlueHammer85]

We are.
Let’s hope you don’t have any family deaths because of your scant disregard of advice.

cheers pal, hope so too - I was just making the point I don’t know anyone who is abiding by the outside visit only rules

 

[Summerbuzz]

Classy...

Cases are low and a lot of people's older immediate family now have some level of protection with one jab. So it's not that hard to understand that people will want to start pushing the rules.

It's just statistically inevitable that this means we'll be fighting it, subject to measures for longer, than if everyone focused on doing everything we can now.

 

[unicorn]

that’s sad , think a lot of people are so consumed in News that it weighs heavy on them

They're quite happy with their own company to be honest, but they won't visit friends on their own and I can't say I blame them after the media scare show.

 

[BlueAnorak]

500,000 uncontrolled.

250,000 if mitigated (peak reduced but not suppressed to R<1) were the predictions with the information at the time.

With what we know now, both were likely underestimates.

Only with more infectious variants i would think.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The telegraph takedown of the SAGE study is excellent. Apologies if you can't read it.

Why the models warning of a third UK Covid wave are flawed

Much of the data suggesting a surge in hospital admissions and deaths this summer is needlessly negative and often out of date

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[BlueHammer85]

The telegraph takedown of the SAGE study is excellent. Apologies if you can't read it.

Why the models warning of a third UK Covid wave are flawed

Much of the data suggesting a surge in hospital admissions and deaths this summer is needlessly negative and often out of date

www.telegraph.co.uk

is it too long to copy and paste the whole thing ?

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Scores after today:~

Borough / Score Today / Score 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop scores going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop Score is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.


Rochdale 70 / 99 / Down 29 Testing positive 9.5%

Tameside 68 / 99 / Down 31 Testing positive 8.0%

Manchester 66 / 97 / Down 31 Testing positive 9.5%

Bolton 63 / 110 / Down 47 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 61 / 110 Down 49 Testing positive 9.6%

Wigan 53 / 81/ Down 28 Testing positive 8.8%

Stockport 50 / 68 / Down 18 Testing positive 7.1%

Salford 49 / 79 / Down 30 Testing positive 8.9%\

Bury 49 / 66 / Down 17 Testing positive 9.0%

Trafford 43 / 73/ Down 30 Testing positive 6.9%



As you see everywhere now falling and the gap between top and bottom remains narrow with low scores all round of levels not seen since last Summer.

Trafford is back with the lowest score and pulled away of the rest again today so well over its recent hump - but the real story is that all of GM is doing remarkably similar and well.

Weekly cases:- Bury is down 8 to become the first GM borough with a sub 100 weekly total at just 94, First time this has occurred in about 9 months.

At 103 Trafford fell further and stays second but closes the gap.

Salford in third on 128. Oldham on 145 overtakes Rochdale as does Stockport one back on 146 - its lowest weekly score since August with Tameside not far behind on 153 and Rochdale now on 155. And Wigan now on 173. But Bolton on 177 also drop below 200.

Leaving just Manchester above but unlikely to manage sub 200 easily given its much higher population but also falling fast at just 365. It's lowest too since July.,

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

is it too long to copy and paste the whole thing ?

Against forum rules.

Don't copy and paste articles from other publications, as it infringes copyright laws. Please provide links to any articles you wish to reference instead.