Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Tim of the Oak]

That's what we'd expect, isn't it ? That Twitter thread by Prof. Pagel definitely suggests delaying some of the domestic re-openings a further 6-8 weeks so every adult can have had a chance of a first jab.

No suggestion from our Govt. that's being considered in light of vaccine tightening, of course, but it would be the final straw for some who need the social comforts of a pub.

FWIW Business leaders are increasingly confident of a strong reopening of the economy, even though there is a level of uncertainty around the hospitality sector.

UK firms step up hiring as lockdown nears end — Reuters UK

British companies sharply stepped up hiring and offered higher pay to new staff last month as they grew more confident about economic recovery and prepared for COVID restrictions to ease, a recruiters body said on Thursday.

apple.news

 

[BlueAnorak]

That's what we'd expect, isn't it ? That Twitter thread by Prof. Pagel definitely suggests delaying some of the domestic re-openings a further 6-8 weeks so every adult can have had a chance of a first jab.

No suggestion from our Govt. that's being considered in light of vaccine tightening, of course, but it would be the final straw for some who need the social comforts of a pub.

The lack of case increases as a result of kids going back to school rather show that idea up to be far too cautious.
Actual data is the thing and that shows that we can move on in reopening our economy internally.
The lack of increase in cases from reopening schools is a huge boost to the govrrnment strategy. Absolutely huge.

 

[RobMCFC]

Full details on the risk in the Telegraph now....

The press conference nobody wanted to give – what we learnt from the blood clot briefing

Medicines regulator forced to concede that the AstraZeneca Covid jab is possibly causing a rare but deadly brain condition

www.telegraph.co.uk

The age graphs are the most important (attached). Basically those below 30 with a low exposure risk are better off taking a different jab. Foe everyone else the maths are still in favour...

Worth pointing out that those benefits v risk graphs were for low levels of the virus circulating.

JVT showed 3 versions of those graphs and even with an increase to moderate infection rates, the benefits to people under 30 were far greater than the risks.

The sad fact is that although it's much better to get the vaccine, they are basically going to kill one healthy person per million by doing it. I know they are saving hundreds or thousands by doing this, but it's a sobering thought nevertheless.

 

[twosips]

According to UCL, UK Herd Immunity day is Monday 12th April with a prediction of 73.4% of people with antibodies.

Seen an awful lot of criticism based around this. It's from a guy who predicted about 50 deaths max in the second wave and the model is also based on the idea that the R has been over 1 for weeks now...which clearly isnt true. I liked that post last night too but read an awful lot now to the contrary so I'm not sure it stands up now sadly. Hopefully its right

 

[BlueAnorak]

Projections of nerd immunity have lost credibility. It
has been politicised and has been a key factor in our colossal death toll.

Herd immunity is the only way out of the lockdown cycle. Fortunately we are achieving it through vaccination rather than a rampant spread of cases.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Seen an awful lot of criticism based around this. It's from a guy who predicted about 50 deaths max in the second wave and the model is also based on the idea that the R has been over 1 for weeks now...which clearly isnt true. I liked that post last night too but read an awful lot now to the contrary so I'm not sure it stands up now sadly. Hopefully its right

yeah but it’s now in the sun so it must be true.

UK 'will achieve herd immunity next week' as jab rollout sees cases plunge

BRITAIN will achieve herd immunity from Covid next week through the vaccine rollout and the number of people who’ve recovered from Covid, it’s reported. Modelling by University College …

www.thesun.co.uk

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Herd immunity is the only way out of lockdown. Fortunately we are achieving it through vaccination rather than a rampant spread of cases.

I agree it’s the end point mate. It’s herd immunity as a strategy that has been so destructive. I know you were referring to the former but I have a few (normally quite intelligent) friends who got obsessed with achieving herd immunity without vaccinations.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The sad fact is that although it's much better to get the vaccine, they are basically going to kill one healthy person per million by doing it. I know they are saving hundreds or thousands by doing this, but it's a sobering thought nevertheless.

Agree with the sentiment, but also was listening to a doc from the Thrombosis expert group (not exactly sure what the name was) on radio 4 this morning, and there seems to be confidence that if people are aware of this and present ASAP if they get symptoms then for most it will be treatable, so hopefully much less than even one in a million.

 

[Gabriel]

Projections of nerd immunity have lost credibility. It
has been politicised and has been a key factor in our colossal death toll.

Presumably re-opening the pubs will have an effect on ‘nerd immunity’...
;-)

 

[Bluemoon dan]

FWIW Business leaders are increasing confident of a strong reopening of the economy, even though there is a level of uncertainty around the hospitality sector.

UK firms step up hiring as lockdown nears end — Reuters UK

British companies sharply stepped up hiring and offered higher pay to new staff last month as they grew more confident about economic recovery and prepared for COVID restrictions to ease, a recruiters body said on Thursday.

apple.news

One of the things I do as part of my job is to keep an eye on local vacancies, I regularly run a search on the National Apprenticeship website for live opportunities within a 10 mile radius of the schools postcode. Heartbreakingly last summer as the year 11's were leaving and in theory being able to apply for these positions it got as low as about 30 Apprenticeship positions being listed. I've just run the same search this morning and it is now showing 171 within that area. It's not quite up to 'normal' levels just yet as I have seen it double that number in the past but its getting there.