Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Greater Manchester unfortunately drove the NW increase today. 68 of the 82 rise were in the ten boroughs.

Stockport did not have a particularly good day - up 19 on 2 days ago to 26 and down just 1 wk to wk .

Tameside also up 19 to 22. But down week to week by 5 versus Stockport's 1.

Manchester up 17 to 42 but down even further by 21 on last week. Most in GM today.

Rochdale was also up 11 to 26 - like Stockport - but down more wk to wk - by 8 - which will help its Pop Score.

Bury still performing best and in single figures again with just 7 cases (5 down wk to wk).

Though Oldham stayed at 13 and that is half where it was week to week so a good day here.

Wigan down 3 on 2 days ago but up 3 wk to wk on 20.

Salford up 3 to 19 on 2 days ago and also up the most week to week - by 9. Costing it Pop Score points. And arguably the worst day today

Bolton on 17 is doing very well - down 1 on 2 days ago and 6 versus last week.

Trafford 14 - up 6 on 2 days ago but down 1 wk to wk
 
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Haven't been called for my covid jab yet so thought I'd go and try my luck and see if they had any spare ones that I could have.

Went to my two local vaccine centres and they were both shut despite the website saying they are open 8-8 7 days a week.

Why are they not manned 16 hours a day? Not enough jabs or not enough staff?
 
117 M34 said:
Haven't been called for my covid jab yet so thought I'd go and try my luck and see if they had any spare ones that I could have.

Went to my two local vaccine centres and they were both shut despite the website saying they are open 8-8 7 days a week.

Why are they not manned 16 hours a day? Not enough jabs or not enough staff?
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It will be to do with availability of jabs or possibly the centre has changed opening hours. I looked at volunteering at test centres (today) and there were no vacancies.
 
Manc in London said:
Thankfully, it is a dominant strain outside South Africa. If course, not so good for South Africans.

As the British variant appears to be more infectious in many countries, the SA variant will hopefully not gain a more significant foothold. I think....
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Absolutely, and I hope it remains that way. And the good news is that South Africa itself continues to post relatively low case and death numbers thankfully. I don't know how much of that (if any) is to do with the climate, or to what extent they are living under restrictions and how well they're being adhered to?

Israel has been mostly open for a few weeks now and (touch wood) are doing ok. Question I have is, if the UK strain has been and is the dominant one over there (Israel), what happens at the point which vaccines have minimised the transmission of this to extremely low levels, does that provide an open space for the South African number to start spreading to higher levels given its competition has been weakened?

Not sure how that works in terms of evolution.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Absolutely, and I hope it remains that way. And the good news is that South Africa itself continues to post relatively low case and death numbers thankfully. I don't know how much of that (if any) is to do with the climate, or to what extent they are living under restrictions and how well they're being adhered to?

Israel has been mostly open for a few weeks now and (touch wood) are doing ok. Question I have is, if the UK strain has been and is the dominant one over there (Israel), what happens at the point which vaccines have minimised the transmission of this to extremely low levels, does that provide an open space for the South African number to start spreading to higher levels given its competition has been weakened?

Not sure how that works in terms of evolution.
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The argument that the other strains are competing with the SA strain I think is based on other strains effectively innoculating people.

Immune hosts carry replicating virus is exactly how they think the Kent variant formed (patient with convalscent plasma). I don;t think the SA variant is in of itself a massive problem it's mroe that it might be a stepping stone.

Fortunately we already have a variant vaccine in trial but we don't want this getting complicated and protracted.
 
Marvin said:
The argument that the other strains are competing with the SA strain I think is based on other strains effectively innoculating people.

Immune hosts carry replicating virus is exactly how they think the Kent variant formed (patient with convalscent plasma). I don;t think the SA variant is in of itself a massive problem it's mroe that it might be a stepping stone.

Fortunately we already have a variant vaccine in trial but we don't want this getting complicated and protracted.
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Not sure how that works. if the SA strain has in fact escaped immunity ( to some extent ) then that means the natural inoculation effected is nullified as well tho?

all a vaccine does is create the same effect in the body as having the virus. Therefore escape vaccine and it escapes natural immunity too.

that being said. Reducing efficacy of immunity isn’t the same as totally escaping immunity. With the test size in that group it’s to early to be worried. Even then. Booster jabs are already in development so roll out of a new one should be quick if it’s needed

also no vaccine or natural immunity is 100%, it’s entirely possible these figures are within the expected margins?
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
Absolutely, and I hope it remains that way. And the good news is that South Africa itself continues to post relatively low case and death numbers thankfully. I don't know how much of that (if any) is to do with the climate, or to what extent they are living under restrictions and how well they're being adhered to?

Israel has been mostly open for a few weeks now and (touch wood) are doing ok. Question I have is, if the UK strain has been and is the dominant one over there (Israel), what happens at the point which vaccines have minimised the transmission of this to extremely low levels, does that provide an open space for the South African number to start spreading to higher levels given its competition has been weakened?

Not sure how that works in terms of evolution.
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Many twists and turns to come I'd say but what is clear, overall, is the scientists are leading after the first leg. The virus is still in with a chance and dangerous on the break but with the team we have I think the medical team will come out on top eventually. Hopefully we can all attend the World Cup of non Covid next year by visiting any country we wish, plucky Covid may still be around but even Gibraltar hammered it into submission. Star signings, AZ and Pfizer took a while to find their feet but after some intense training, coaching and readjustments they are now performing at the top of their form. MOM,all the world wide scientists and medical staff who will have booted this shit out of the ball park.
 
hammocity said:
Many twists and turns to come I'd say but what is clear, overall, is the scientists are leading after the first leg. The virus is still in with a chance and dangerous on the break but with the team we have I think the medical team will come out on top eventually. Hopefully we can all attend the World Cup of non Covid next year by visiting any country we wish, plucky Covid may still be around but even Gibraltar hammered it into submission. Star signings, AZ and Pfizer took a while to find their feet but after some intense training, coaching and readjustments they are now performing at the top of their form. MOM,all the world wide scientists and medical staff who will have booted this shit out of the ball park.
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JVT is that you?!
 
hammocity said:
Many twists and turns to come I'd say but what is clear, overall, is the scientists are leading after the first leg. The virus is still in with a chance and dangerous on the break but with the team we have I think the medical team will come out on top eventually. Hopefully we can all attend the World Cup of non Covid next year by visiting any country we wish, plucky Covid may still be around but even Gibraltar hammered it into submission. Star signings, AZ and Pfizer took a while to find their feet but after some intense training, coaching and readjustments they are now performing at the top of their form. MOM,all the world wide scientists and medical staff who will have booted this shit out of the ball park.
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Just remember 10 man Leeds have just beat city :+(
 
grunge said:
Not sure how that works. if the SA strain has in fact escaped immunity ( to some extent ) then that means the natural inoculation effected is nullified as well tho?

all a vaccine does is create the same effect in the body as having the virus. Therefore escape vaccine and it escapes natural immunity too.

that being said. Reducing efficacy of immunity isn’t the same as totally escaping immunity. With the test size in that group it’s to early to be worried. Even then. Booster jabs are already in development so roll out of a new one should be quick if it’s needed

also no vaccine or natural immunity is 100%, it’s entirely possible these figures are within the expected margins?
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Prior to vaccination in Israel 1% of the viral strains were the SA variant, 80% the UK variant. The SA variant did not have a advanatage in terms of infectiveness so the other variants effectively restricted the growth of the SA variant by innoculating the hosts with partial immunity.

The SA variant has not totally evaded the immune response hence this argument works for me.
 
Wales data:

Comparison with 2 weeks ago as no data last Sunday

3 deaths - was 0 two wks ago

53 cases - was 171 two weeks ago (think this is the lowest 'normal' daily number I can recall in Wales) - less than Manchester on its own had 4 out of 7 days last week!)

0.7% positivity - was 1.2% two wks ago.
 
Wales vaccination update:

1, 572, 752 first doses given - 16, 436 today - was 19, 194 yesterday & 10, 558 last Sunday.

525, 177 second doses given - 15, 699 today - was 11, 160 yesterday & 2673 last Sunday.

Big step up from last week and 2K up on yesterday.
 
Zoe app data:

1732 predicted cases - up 106 on yesterday.

NE & Yorkshire the only area in the Red Zone at a range of 36 - 163 (all numbers per million people)

In the dark pink second group are now:-

Scotland 0 - 111

North West (now up to third highest) 16 - 87

Wales 0 - 76

London 10 - 58

In the light pink third group are:-

South East 11 - 43

East 5- 46

Midlands 2 - 52

South West 0 - 28

And the only one in the white zone and best in UK is

N Ireland at 0 - 366


Though I have no real idea why it rates that much higher than what looks to me the obviously better range of the South West.


The number of reported to the app symptomatic cases ongoing of Covid has fallen as it has every day now since January to go below 40K

At 39, 040 that is a fall in last 24 hours of 1791.

Calderdale (unhappy valley perhaps should be renamed) is the most infected area in the UK with 1485 cases reported and an extrapolated 'real' number based on % of population reporting to the app of 7128 active case sin this area on the Yorkshire / GM county borders.

Much of West Yorkshire (Leeds etc) and North Lincolnshire closely behind.

Bolton is rated the most infected in the North West (odd as its case numbers have fallen a lot recently)

At about a third of the above number at just 528 extrapolated based on % of population using the app to 2040 active cases.

Here are the other 9 GM boroughs with reported cases / extrapolated true active cases:

Bury 150 / 795

Manchester 242 / 444

Oldham 168 / 717

Rochdale 77 / 352

Salford 82 / 323

Stockport 121 / 418

Tameside 295 / 1317

Trafford 131 / 559

Wigan 108 / 333
 
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