Coronavirus (2021) thread

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White Hart pub car park in Cheadle which has been turned into an outdoor beer garden is absolutely rammed which is odd as on a normal Monday at 3.30 I doubt that there are more than half a dozen people in the pub. Traffic also mental, worst I have seen it since before lockdown. I understand people have been going stir crazy but if we aren't careful then things could go pear shaped.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I know this won't go down well, because I *really* do hope that you're right. My concern remains that b1351 or Another will make things really difficult in the autumn/winter time. Sorry man, I wish I could join the full on optimism train but I can't get there yet.
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New cases are now so low, we can genome sequence every case and blitz test post codes where new variants are identified.
 
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grunge said:
Well, Collage University London modelling saying we are, as of today, at Herd Immunity levels!. Nice.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: UK set to reach herd immunity 'milestone' within days, say scientists

Real-time modelling indicates the nation is at a point where enough resistance is built up to combat the spread of infection.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

There's bound to be some miss calculations and crossover between those who had it naturally and also been vaccinated who are probably counted twice in this.

But we're so so close now. Need to make sure the SA variant doesn't take hold now and we're good.
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Not strictly correct because age groups below 50 have yet to be vaccinated. Yes a lot of 18-30 year olds have had the virus (more so than any other age group) or have been vaccinated due to their status but it isn't enough to create true herd immunity as under 30s spend a lot of time in each others company - though not really true at the moment.
 
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grunge said:
Well, Collage University London modelling saying we are, as of today, at Herd Immunity levels!. Nice.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: UK set to reach herd immunity 'milestone' within days, say scientists

Real-time modelling indicates the nation is at a point where enough resistance is built up to combat the spread of infection.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

There's bound to be some miss calculations and crossover between those who had it naturally and also been vaccinated who are probably counted twice in this.

But we're so so close now. Need to make sure the SA variant doesn't take hold now and we're good.
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A modelling approach, unfortunately, which has been widely criticised.

Dr Adam Kucharski, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: “Unfortunately, the modelling approach used to produce this analysis has a history of making over-confident and over-optimistic predictions.” They had got it wrong in the past, he said, pointing to the forecast in late September that “a plausible worst-case scenario is a peak in daily deaths in the tens (eg 50 to 60) not hundreds, in November”. That, of course, was before the Kent virus took off.

www.theguardian.com

UCL team’s claim that herd immunity set to be achieved draws criticism

Many scientists critical of University College London Covid-19 forecast as ‘over-confident and over-optimistic’
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

The model is updated with the latest emerging data; hilarously today it claims R=1.39, having changed its mind from the run that generated those headlines. It appears to be rather unstable, to put it kindly.

www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk

Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

Dynamic Causal Modelling, UCL, UK
www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk
 
Big jump in England cases given the other UK nations.

3568

Miles away from Zoe App today.

From 1, 206, 563 tests mind you. Versus just 468, 906 yesterday.

Tripled tests. double cases.

For a Monday (Sunday testing) that sis unexpectedly high.

Versus 2762 last Monday and 4654 week before and 5342 week before
 
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That is the highest England cases total in 12 days btw - up from 1338 yesterday to 3222 in 24 hours.

Wonder why.

Either way a little disconcerting after a run of good news.
 
Eds said:
White Hart pub car park in Cheadle which has been turned into an outdoor beer garden is absolutely rammed which is odd as on a normal Monday at 3.30 I doubt that there are more than half a dozen people in the pub. Traffic also mental, worst I have seen it since before lockdown. I understand people have been going stir crazy but if we aren't careful then things could go pear shaped.
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Just passed two local boozers near me , absolutely rammed and zero social distancing, the police had just turned up as I was passing, no staff on the entrance so basically a free for all , sadly this will only lead one way .
 
roubaixtuesday said:
A modelling approach, unfortunately, which has been widely criticised.

Dr Adam Kucharski, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: “Unfortunately, the modelling approach used to produce this analysis has a history of making over-confident and over-optimistic predictions.” They had got it wrong in the past, he said, pointing to the forecast in late September that “a plausible worst-case scenario is a peak in daily deaths in the tens (eg 50 to 60) not hundreds, in November”. That, of course, was before the Kent virus took off.

www.theguardian.com

UCL team’s claim that herd immunity set to be achieved draws criticism

Many scientists critical of University College London Covid-19 forecast as ‘over-confident and over-optimistic’
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

The model is updated with the latest emerging data; hilarously today it claims R=1.39, having changed its mind from the run that generated those headlines. It appears to be rather unstable, to put it kindly.

www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk

Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

Dynamic Causal Modelling, UCL, UK
www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk
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yeah there is always the risk that its off. even knowing what the herd immunity percentage is seems to be a tricky calculation.

trying my own calculations.

but going by this

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data for the UK - Office for National Statistics

Antibody and vaccination data by UK country and regions in England from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey.
www.ons.gov.uk

as of 14th March about 54% of the population test positive for anitbodies from either having the virus or vaccinations.

14th march 26m people had been vaccinated. we're now at 32m, so we're at least 6m more people vaccinated which is 10% more since then, so we're probably around the 65%ish mark ( not even gonna attempt to calculate an overlap of vaccine+natural )


1st Dose vaccines has slowed down a lot this month.
 
Healdplace said:
Big jump in England cases given the other UK nations.

3568

Miles away from Zoe App today.

From 1, 206, 563 tests mind you. Versus just 468, 906 yesterday.

Tripled tests. double cases.

For a Monday (Sunday testing) that sis unexpectedly high.

Versus 2762 last Monday and 4654 week before and 5342 week before
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probably the schools going back no? Sunday night is one of the bigger LFT nights. havent actually seen the data yet though, might check later
 
BlueAnorak said:
New cases are now so low, we can genome sequence every case and blitz test post codes where new variants are identified.
Click to expand...

But while that's taking place, if and when a new variant is in will have already began to spread. Then afterwards factor in a 4 week delay of dilly dallying over whether to lock down again or not.

Sorry, and I really hope I'm wrong and this post can be revisited in November time with everything still looking positive as is the case now, but after the past year and a bit which we've had I can't shake the feeling that there'll be more trouble ahead, and from anything I'm reading the only way that's likely to happen is variant related.
 
It looks like the big jump today is a lot of England cases from weeks ago found under a sofa.

Apparently only 2200 or so of todays 3500 are from the past 7 days.

So no real panic.

Why Gov UK is not saying this yet I do not know.

It is all over the place still with several GM boroughs missing in one set of data but there in another and regions not updated yet either.

Seems it is quite a big readjustment again still going on.

But looks like nothing to panic over.

It was very odd that England would suddenly jump when the other three nations fell today. So good to know this is not what happened.
 
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