If the SA strain and other mutations massively reduce the vaccine efficiency and create a larger amount of reinfections then I don’t see how we get out of this. It isn’t going to stop spreading and mutating in 2022 so not sure why social distancing would only be in place until the end of this year. If we get to a point where the SA strain does become the dominant one but we eventually get on top of it, what’s to stop it from mutating into an even worse form ? God this whole shitshow is depressing.
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Coronavirus (2021) thread
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Tim of the Oak
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Hopefully, the virus will become less deadly but the British variant shows that isn’t guaranteed in the near future. It’s great that the vaccines have been developed so fast and look like being so effective.the suggestions that it will become less deadly are valid as natural selection suggests that if the virus kills the host the host isn't spreading it anymore. making it far harder for more deadly versions to spread. but that has a whole host of technicalities ( how easy the spread is, asymptomatic spread, incubation periods, how long until mortality etc etc ) to it and can take decades rather than months, It may well become a common cold variant eventually.
Right now, Lockdowns and Vaccines are making it harder for the virus to transmit which will mean the more transmissible or vaccine tolerant variants will be promoted.
However no sign that any variant has bypassed the vaccine yet. But this is why the next few months its key people obey the lockdowns so these variants cant spread if they do form.
BlueAnorak
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The SA varriant has been in the UK 2 months at least.An individual case is not more dangerous. Faster spread of the variant makes it more dangerous. We were too slow to restrict access to our borders and the testing is an attempt to limit the spread of the South African variant before it is wide spread.
Hotel Quarantine should have been in force since before February half term 2020. It wasn't and is difficult to enforce because the chattering classes like to travel and they have tremendous soft power in the UK.
Gaylord du Bois
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Sky reporting on this now. Was in a good mood when I woke up this morning. lol.
Probably worth ignoring until they can actually put someone in front of a camera to day as much.
Tim of the Oak
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Why we shouldn't fear the effectiveness of the vaccines (at least for now).
It’s great to see the impact the vaccines are having. I think will start to see significant improvement here by the end of February when the protection for approximately 15 million people start to kick in.
Rammy Blue
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First off mate, you’re answering a point I wasn’t making. Secondly, that’s what a virus does, it mutates. How do you think any variant occurs, by magic?I just don't buy into the theory that it was inevitable. Sorry mods for mixing politics with this thread but it really can't be helped on this occasion because the two things go hand in hand. Part of the reason for the Brexit vote was in order to 'take control of our own borders' yet we first heard about this strain before Christmas. Since then it's been far too little, too late. We're still an island at the end of the day so could have used that to our advantage, completely closed the borders and enforced the strictest of quarantine and isolation period for those who are returning to the UK from anywhere in the world.
I feel that if we could turn back clocks, we'd have done that in February 2020, yet when a new potential problem was discovered or at least made public in December 2020 we've still been slow to react and done so in a half measured manner.
Again, sorry for mixing politics here but it's impossible not to. I just don't see this strain being over here as something we couldn't avoid, we could if we tried.
Gaylord du Bois
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I hate to be the bearer of bad news this morning (genuinely - right sunk my mood), but monoclonal antibodies failed unfortunately. I know some on here were quite excited about that.
What's happened to the new positive you ?
Stay positive. Look forward not sideways.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news this morning (genuinely - right sunk my mood), but monoclonal antibodies failed unfortunately. I know some on here were quite excited about that.
So GSK's monoclonal anitbody still works against the South African and Brazilian variants, and new ones based off the variants are already in trials.
So GSK's monoclonal anitbody still works against the South African and Brazilian variants, and new ones based off the variants are already in trials.
Genuine question. Is there anyway a doctor can tell which variant a patient has so they can use that treatment for a certain individual?
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