Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ayrshire_blue]

270 cases in Scotland today

5 are aged 65+
35 are aged 45-64


108 are aged 25-44
122 are aged 0-24

 

[ayrshire_blue]

 

[twosips]

Just came to post that too. Amazing news and shows that while yes, we should be concerned about this new variant, it doesn't mean we should be worried. We just need to get as many jabs into arms as possible and we're good to go.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Good news but Indian B.1.617.2 is the variant of concern not B.1.617.1. It is unlikely that B.1.617.2 will be a lot worse though.

Agreed - but iirc the B.1.617.1. is here too (in much lower numbers) but there were concerns surrounding it having similar mutation to the SA variant and might have posed a problem for vaccine efficacy. I know b.1.167.2. Is the VOC and the dominant one here but hopefully the confidence in vaccine efficacy against it holds up, should know soon I guess?

 

[splinter]

Wow..outstanding figures

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App

Predicted Cases 2802 - much closer to the real cases today.

North West now up to the dark pink zone with Scotland, Yorkshire and London.

And predicted symptomatic cases up 877 on yesterday to 32, 541.

NORTH WEST NUMBERS

(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)

BOLTON 1209 / 4267 V 1295 / 4571 Down a bit but in second tier of infection along with neighbour Chorley which is a bit lower on 377 / 3252

That 4267 is the number to watch. It has to fall a lot. Indeed to go off watch list it has to go below 1000 - as do the places below here.

OLDHAM 430 / 1837 v 263 / 1978 - high numbers but its cases are still in single figures. Was lowest in GM today.

STOCKPORT 373 / 1290 v 394 / 1364 - a small fall day today but still over the 1000 so still on the watch list.

MANCHESTER 657 / 1204 v 309 / 566 - Big rise matching cases that came today hours after Zoe made this prediction from its data reported to the app. Enough to take Manchester alongside Stockport on the lower levels of the watch zone. Though rising where Stockport numbers are falling.


Other GM Areas

BURY 29/ 152 v 29 / 156 - still very low and very little change

ROCHDALE 32 / 147 v 31 / 144 - like Bury doing well - tiny increase

SALFORD 158 / 624 v 168 / 666 - happily a small fall.

TAMESIDE 38 / 170 v 46 / 207 - Also falling so good to see

TRAFFORD 101 / 433 v 105 / 449 - Another small daily fall.

WIGAN 121 / 374 v 127 / 391 - watching closely given proximity to Bolton but numbers edging down is good.


Fylde (Blackpool) is on 172 / 2188 V 178 / 2259 small fall on the Fylde.


~
So only Manchester was the real concern today with the big rise that was reflected perfectly hours later in its actual case numbers.

 

[unicorn]

Yes these are cases rising and not deaths and it will probably take a lot more cases to create 100 deaths now than was true in January. But we have to act swiftly and stop the exponential rise in numbers and the hints of spread in GM - but we have an edge here. We have the time to squash this we would not have had in January. But we need yo act not just debate.

Based on known evidence about mortality rates, approximately how many cases in a younger (unvaccinated) population would it take to produce 100 deaths. Presumably well over 10,000 ?

 

[Healdplace]

Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East UP 58 to 215 v 224

London down 48 to 229 v 252 - nothing worrying here as yet

South East UP 111 to 230 v 195

South West UP 32 to 111 v 120







MIDLANDS

East UP 13 to 187 v 257 - nice fall wk to wk

West down 49 to 164 v 179 Midlands had a good day.



NORTH

North East up 32 to 108 v 97 - up slightly and nearly lost lowest cases to the south west


Yorkshire down 9 to 333 v 406 (Down, doing better than the North West and miles behind now)




NORTH WEST UP 178 to 578 v 371. Huge rise on day and week to week and top scorers in the UK by a whopping 245. We know why.


GREATER MANCHESTER

Up 117 day to day to 365 - largest total in weeks. From NW rise of 178

Up 173 week to week. Vast majority of the NW rise of 207.

 

[shemnel]

Based on known evidence about mortality rates, approximately how many cases in a younger (unvaccinated) population would it take to produce 100 deaths. Presumably well over 10,000 ?

looking at officially recorded data only, in England only;

there are 1,288,186 covid cases < 30 yrs.
there are 231 covid deaths < 30 yrs

this means the IFR on known cases is ~0.018 %

known cases is surely nowhere near the real cases, especially in the younger population. I would bet it's double at the very least.

a 'positive' that predominantly younger folks are getting it is that it translates into far less deaths further down the line, with zero vaccination.

(upping that to < 40 yrs = 0.04%. Again only recorded cases, which will be a large under estimate.)

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

we are going to have a big 3rd wave from this week on and the vaccines will be tested to the max
the 21st of june open the flood gates is not going to happen because next week and the week after cases will be high sadly the deaths will be up again could even be in tripple numbers each day

Fucking hell didn’t know Chris Whitty was on blue moon.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester Cases


365 cases today - up 117 on day. Biggest rise in weeks. From 578 North West cases.




Bolton - unfortunately huge rise - of 65 - biggest daily rise yet - to 189 - up a giant 128 on last week. Tripled in 7 days. Pop score rise today was 66 - biggest by anyone in GM for over 3 months


Manchester also shoots up 35 to 71 which is biggest rise and highest number in a while here too. Up 38 from last week. Hope it is a blip and not the start of another Bolton. To have done as badly as Bolton today Manchester would have had to score 350 cases.


Wigan up 5 on day to 23 - which is up 7 wk to wk. Numbers are escalating a bit too but not yet overly so.

Stockport on 19 for third straight day which is up 6 on last week. Also dicing with going out of control but not yet taking off . Like Wigan could tip either way.

Rochdale up 3 on 13 - which is down 5 week to week.

Salford down 1 to 12 which is down 6 on last week. Rochdale & Salford doing fine for now.

Trafford up 3 to 11 - up 6 wk to wk.

Tameside up 4 also on 11 which is up 1 wk to wk

Bury up 6 to also be on 11 which is up 5 wk to wk.


And that leaves just one borough in single figures today:-


Oldham down 1 to 7 - which is 5 down wk to wk.



Weekly total cases:-


Bolton tops 750 weekly cases and keeps climbing and Manchester up big too.

Bury - still easily in the lead.

But weekly numbers in several boroughs are rising. Now four over 100 and Stockport only just missed making it five.

Bury 45, Oldham 59, Salford 73, Trafford 75, Tameside 78, Stockport 99, Rochdale 107, Wigan 112, Manchester 270, Bolton 751.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Im 43 and I have serious reservations about taking it, is anyone else in any doubt?

Not being funny but don’t be a half wit.

 

[feelymcfeel]

Not being funny but don’t be a half wit.

Half wit would be an improvement.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Nearly 800 new cases of Indian variant are confirmed

Britain has seen a sharp rise in the number of confirmed cases of the B1617.2 coronavirus variant first found in India, Public Health England said on Thursday, with the total now at 1,313.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 261 / 108 / UP 153 Testing positive 9.5%

Manchester 49 / 35 / UP 14 Testing positive 9.7%

Rochdale 48 / 38 / UP 10 Testing positive 9.7%

Tameside 34 / 20 UP 14 Testing positive 8.2

Wigan 34 / 26 / UP 8 Testing positive 8.9%

Stockport 33 / 27 / UP 6 Testing positive 7.2%

Trafford 31 / 38 / DOWN 7 Testing positive 7.1 %

Salford 28 / 32 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 25 / 26 DOWN 1 Testing positive 9.8%

Bury 23 / 22 / UP 1 Testing positive 9.1%



Bolton still climbing miles above the rest 212 ahead of second - this gap is increasing every day which is awful news for Bolton but good news for GM that nobody is emulating its rise yet. Though Manchester is the most likely based on its big jump up today. For now never seen a top pop score this far away from the rest.

Stockport is just going up slightly and went up a ranking in the numbers today as most places are now inching up.

Wigan is a bit like Stockport as in August when Bolton last saw a big number rise. Fingers crossed there is no cross contamination this time around.

Oldham and Bury are still top of the tree and doing well right now.

But Trafford has slowly reasserted itself to slip down the table.

Remember going down in this table is good not bad!

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

I'll put this here as it's more widely read than the vaccine thread.

I've just updated the MyGP app as I've read that from Monday it will show your vaccination status once you have had both shots. There is a new section at the top of the first page called MyGP TICKet that does exactly that. I had my second shot on the 3rd and it won't show mine yet though. This might be because it takes 10 days before you are classed as 'fully baked' or maybe it will be from Monday, the official start date.

This will definitely be useful for foreign holidays soon and maybe for things like large events once everyone has been offered a vaccine.

 

[True_Blue69]

Yes these are cases rising and not deaths and it will probably take a lot more cases to create 100 deaths now than was true in January. But we have to act swiftly and stop the exponential rise in numbers and the hints of spread in GM - but we have an edge here. We have the time to squash this we would not have had in January. But we need yo act not just debate.

The vaccine doesn’t stop you catching it, are people forgetting this? Cases are practically irrelevant providing the vaccine works.

 

[True_Blue69]

Agreed. And thank you. But as I have said before targeted messaging is needed and more than ever right now.

Invulnerability is for myth and Superman not those saying too risky to have this vaccine.

Things like the 45% of deaths today under 60 need stressing to make that point.

And unfortunately I fear we have to rethink refusing to be vaccinated not having any material consequences too. Keep it a choice. Do not impose. But there have to be consequences from saying no in order to change enough minds.

45% of what though? Use the actual number rather than a high percentage which is bound to cause alarm. If you say 5 people under 60 have died today, it tells the true story.

 

[blueparrot]

45% of what though? Use the actual number rather than a high percentage which is bound to cause alarm. If you say 5 people under 60 have died today, it tells the true story.

I agree, and surely the %age of deaths under 60 going up is a good thing, as it must means the vaccinations in older people are cutting the deaths of the older age groups.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

looking at officially recorded data only, in England only;

there are 1,288,186 covid cases < 30 yrs.
there are 231 covid deaths < 30 yrs

this means the IFR on known cases is ~0.018 %

known cases is surely nowhere near the real cases, especially in the younger population. I would bet it's double at the very least.

a 'positive' that predominantly younger folks are getting it is that it translates into far less deaths further down the line, with zero vaccination.

(upping that to < 40 yrs = 0.04%. Again only recorded cases, which will be a large under estimate.)

And that’s people who died with Covid, not necessarily from Covid, which takes the IFR even lower.