Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Greater Manchester Cases


251 cases today - up 52 on day. From 381 North West cases. GM 65.9% of NW cases. Very high.




Bolton - went the wrong way sadly - up 66 (more than entire GM rise on its own) - to 145 - up 54 on last week - large chunk of the entire NW rise. Pop score rise today was 51 - double yesterday. Sad reverse of last two days.


Manchester down 3 to 30. Up 4 on last week. Gap between Bolton and Manchester is 115 - almost triple yesterday!

Wigan is up 8 on 17 - which is up 10 wk to wk.

Trafford down 1 to 12 - which is up 6 wk to wk.

Bury up 1 on 12 which is up 1wk to wk too. Bury still a little up.

Rochdale down 8 on 10 - which is down 5 week to week.

Stockport up 4 on 10 which is down 2 on last week.



Which means three boroughs are in single figures today:-


Salford down 7 to 7 which is the same as last week.

Oldham down 6 to 5 - which is the same wk to wk.


And top again:-


Tameside is down 2 on just 3 which is down 3 wk to wk.




Weekly total cases:-


Bolton near 900 weekly cases - pushing 4 times Manchester and 10 time everybody else keeps looking scary but not yet spreading elsewhere which s what matters.

Bury still struggling a little compared with as it was. But so low that is relative.

Wigan is still climbing also now over 100 with Manchester and Bolton.

Back to just 3 over 100 - though - as Rochdale did better today happily.


Oldham 47. Bury 68, Salford 68, Tameside 74, Trafford 82, Rochdale 96, Stockport 97, Wigan 123, Manchester 259, Bolton 877.
 
I think we need to see an updated estimate from the Gov of when they are going to have everyone over 18 vaccinated.

First and Second dose.

Testing, local restrictions etc is just window dressing compared to that, it’s the only way out, and it’s not too far away.

plan also clearly seems to be Pfizer booster jabs for groups 1-4 and possibly single doses for secondary school children, would be better to see it laid out in a press confrence.
 
Healdplace said:
Unfortunately - whatever Zoe says - North West actually is UP today and by some distance now is the most infected and, sadly, Bolton back well up too. By 66 to 145. Second worst yet in this run of numbers. And almost double yesterday.
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They are surge testing you know. So they will be catching at least twice as many cases.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 305 / 153 / UP 152 Testing positive 9.6%

Manchester 47 / 38 / UP 9 Testing positive 9.7%

Rochdale 44 / 47 / DOWN 3 Testing positive 9.7%

Wigan 37 / 26 / UP 11 Testing positive 8.9%

Bury 36 / 23 / UP 13 Testing positive 9.1%

Trafford 34 / 31 / UP 3 Testing positive 7.1 %

Tameside 33 / 28 UP 5 Testing positive 8.2

Stockport 33 / 30 / UP 3 Testing positive 7.2%

Salford 27 / 31 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 19 / 30 DOWN 11 Testing positive 9.8%




Bolton still climbing and over 300 for first time in months for a GM borough - also above the rest by 258 ahead of the rest. This gap i growing which is bad for Bolton but good for the rest of GM as nobody is rising much to close that gap.

Stockport climbed back to third in last few days with better numbers too.

Wigan though starting to edge up. With Bury these are the ones to watch in coming days.

Oldham easily best in GM well clear of the rest and now sub 20 which is not common in GM to get so low.



Remember going down in this table is good not bad!
 
BlueAnorak said:
They are surge testing you know. So they will be catching at least twice as many cases.
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Possibly but they do not publish testing data over the weekend. They were surge testing last two days as well when it went down. But tests get scattered over multiple days so it ca be hard to read patterns. You can only go from cases found.

The data on cases allocated to actual days shows numbers pretty consistent in past week around 140/150. But as tests come back in over next few days these will rise and change a little.
 
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Rammy Blue said:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but shouldn’t we expect Bolton figures to be relatively high due to surge testing? Door to door is bound to pick up a number of asymptomatic that ordinarily wouldn’t have had a test so don’t think we need to panic, as yet.
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Yes, you will find more cases if you intensively test. That is inevitable. And why we need the positivity numbers.

As I have said a few times recently cases right now are not the measure we really need to study. That is the positivity rate and the hospital data even more so.

But cases are all in their wisdom Gov UK have decided to give us now over the weekends.

We will know more tomorrow when we see the last 3 days testing numbers and hospital numbers.

But as the nightly reports suggest these have not up to now been showing any reason to be concerned.
 
Healdplace said:
Yes, you will find more cases if you intensively test. That is inevitable. And why we need the positivity numbers.

As I have said a few times recently cases right now are not the measure we really need to study. That is the positivity rate and the hospital data even more so.

But cases are all in their wisdom Gov UK have decided to give us now over the weekends.

We will know more tomorrow when we see the last 3 days testing numbers and hospital numbers.

But as the nightly reports show these have not up to now been showing any reason to be concerned.
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Positivity rating is definitely increasing in Scotland. Perhaps not by much, but it is noticeable, and was noticeable last September time too before the shit eventually hit the fan. Some kind of reversal would be nice!
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Positivity rating is definitely increasing in Scotland. Perhaps not by much, but it is noticeable, and was noticeable last September time too before the shit eventually hit the fan. Some kind of reversal would be nice!
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Just got to keep pushing hard with the vaccinations, I get the feeling it’s been allowed to slide to a certain degree and maybe this Indian variant has given everyone the kick up the arse that was needed.
 
Hopefully that is true. I have a feeling it might be being portrayed as worst case scenario because there is an increasing mood of it is all over euphoria and dampening that down a little as we branch out into new freedoms might not be that bad an idea whilst we carry on trying to vaccinate as many as possible over the coming month.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Positivity rating is definitely increasing in Scotland. Perhaps not by much, but it is noticeable, and was noticeable last September time too before the shit eventually hit the fan. Some kind of reversal would be nice!
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People still being stuck indoors, with this shite weather, would be my guess. Which suggests that as we go into summer, rather than autumn, we should get the opposite effect.
 
Healdplace said:
Possibly but they do not publish testing data over the weekend. They were surge testing last two days as well when it went down. But tests get scattered over multiple days so it ca be hard to read patterns. You can only go from cases found.

The data on cases allocated to actual days shows numbers pretty consistent in past week around 140/150. But as tests come back in over next few days these will rise and change a little.
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No possibly about it.
50% of cases are asymptomatic.
These are picked up by surge testing as well as people with very mild symptoms thet can be similar to a slight cough or other bugs.
(Note: False positives are now quite well discounted as people only get themselves a PCR test if they have symptoms. LFT positive tests are now subsequently discounted if they are backed up by a negative PCR test.)
 
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Various news sources tonight are reporting tonight that real world data suggests that Vaccines appear to prevent 97 per cent of infections with the Indian variant, with no known cases of death among those fully vaccinated in the UK.

If so, surge testing and surge vaccinations will keep it in check. I await to see the stats that they are reviewing
 
BlueAnorak said:
Various news sources tonight are reporting tonight that real world data suggests that Vaccines appear to prevent 97 per cent of infections with the Indian variant, with no known cases of death among those fully vaccinated in the UK.

If so, surge testing and surge vaccinations will keep it in check. I await to see the stats that they are reviewing
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Thats good news - lets hope they can keep the vaccine programme ahead of the growth in the Indian variant growth.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Various news sources tonight are reporting tonight that real world data suggests that Vaccines appear to prevent 97 per cent of infections with the Indian variant, with no known cases of death among those fully vaccinated in the UK.

If so, surge testing and surge vaccinations will keep it in check. I await to see the stats that they are reviewing
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This?
 
Healdplace said:
Hopefully that is true. I have a feeling it might be being portrayed as worst case scenario because there is an increasing mood of it is all over euphoria and dampening that down a little as we branch out into new freedoms might not be that bad an idea whilst we carry on trying to vaccinate as many as possible over the coming month.
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I'm sure you're right, it's about managing down that sense of normality so we don't "overdo" it, BBC and LBC inviting scientist on the radio telling us it would be irresponsible to go inside pubs and restaurants so stay outside etc etc.

Of course, this message just causes greater fear in people who weren't going to do anything risky anyway.
 
I received a text from the NHS today, saying my second jab was being brought forward as I was in a high priority group. As advised, I went on the NHS website to re-book my second jab, but as the the information wasn't clear, I phoned them up.

I was told I shouldn't cancel my second jab, because I would lose that date and would have to re-book, which would probably be in 12 weeks time!

I asked if you could see the possible dates to bring the second jab forward before cancelling the existing booking, but I was told that wasn't possible.

Oh well, the 1st of June it is, 14 weeks after my first jab.
 
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