Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Gets automatically cancelled mate.
Perhaps it's because I used the national booking system rather than the local GP one my wife used, but I can't make an earlier booking without pressing a button that will cancel my existing booking, and as I can't see availability of an earlier booking I'm a bit reluctant to press that button.

I don't know how folk bringing forward their 2nd jabs are doing so WITHOUT cancelling their existing booking.
 
They’re now inviting 32 year olds. Seem to be rapidly whizzing down the ages now which can only be a good thing.
My 30 year old son popped round last night. He had the Pfizer last week because his girlfriend who he lives with, is front line NHS. Apparently that counts as a reason to offer it to a younger age group. Makes sense.
 
Perhaps it's because I used the national booking system rather than the local GP one my wife used, but I can't make an earlier booking without pressing a button that will cancel my existing booking, and as I can't see availability of an earlier booking I'm a bit reluctant to press that button.

I don't know how folk bringing forward their 2nd jabs are doing so WITHOUT cancelling their existing booking.
There's plenty of alternatives as we found out when Mrs H realised she had missed her 2nd jab. The ones available quickly look like the later appointments, Mrs settled on 2nd June, Etihad at 9am. Maybe best to keep your original appointment.

edit, should have put "later in the day" eg around 6pm onwards and at weekend.
 
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How do you bring it forward. Mine is due 1 June, soon enough, but I was invited to get it early.

After you type in NHS number, D.O.B. and booking reference it just brings up the current booking with no option to book a new, earlier date.

Not too worries, it's only 10 days away, but wondered what the process was.

NB There's an option to cancel and rebook but I don't want to press that button unless I know there actually is an earlier appointment available !
I received a text message on Wednesday from my Medical Centre and followed the link then booked my appointment
I had my first jab at the Etihad but my second will be at the Jain Community Centre
 


Boom. First real world study of vaccine efficacy against variant first identified in India.

33% efficacy in preventing symptomatic infections (ONE DOSE)

81% in same (TWO DOSES)

Efficacy in preventing serious illness and mortality likely to be even higher.

Small evasion on protection against symptoms, likely even smaller evasion against serious cases.

Still need to learn about the transmission, as much higher rate could still cause us major issues as we know, but this is great news for the vaccines.
 
I received a text message on Wednesday from my Medical Centre and followed the link then booked my appointment
I had my first jab at the Etihad but my second will be at the Jain Community Centre
Thanks, I think the process is different if you booked through your local Medical Centre (as Mrs Unicorn did) to the national website. Seen a few people comment on that.
 
Thanks, I think the process is different if you booked through your local Medical Centre (as Mrs Unicorn did) to the national website. Seen a few people comment on that.
It’s highly unlikely you won’t be able to get your original appointment back in the even unlikelier event that you can’t find an earlier one after you’ve cancelled.
 


Boom. First real world study of vaccine efficacy against variant first identified in India.

33% efficacy in preventing symptomatic infections (ONE DOSE)

81% in same (TWO DOSES)

Efficacy in preventing serious illness and mortality likely to be even higher.

Small evasion on protection against symptoms, likely even smaller evasion against serious cases.

Still need to learn about the transmission, as much higher rate could still cause us major issues as we know, but this is great news for the vaccines.

Fantastic news
 


Boom. First real world study of vaccine efficacy against variant first identified in India.

33% efficacy in preventing symptomatic infections (ONE DOSE)

81% in same (TWO DOSES)

Efficacy in preventing serious illness and mortality likely to be even higher.

Small evasion on protection against symptoms, likely even smaller evasion against serious cases.

Still need to learn about the transmission, as much higher rate could still cause us major issues as we know, but this is great news for the vaccines.

Not an expert so I will trust to those who are far better scientifically knowledgeable than I am,

But the key thing I took from reading that in full was the Bolton data.

No sign at all even there that the over 60s (the most likely to be hospitalised but also to have had both doses of vaccine) were being significantly impacted by the new variant. Certainly not in terms of illness troublesome enough to require hospitalisation.

Really that is what matters.

There appears a clear downward fall in age groups so that the most cases by far are in the youngest. And the gulf between the under 60s and over 60s looks like the biggest gap of all. Exactly what we need to see. As pre vaccine the over 60s were by miles the ones most impacted. Only the vaccine can account for this change.

This certainly seems to suggest we can beat off this variant with a few weeks hard graft - even if it spreads - without any significant new wave impact in the data where it really matters - hospital not case numbers.

Very encouraging.
 
Not an expert so I will trust to those who are far better scientifically knowledgeable than I am,

But the key thing I took from reading that in full was the Bolton data.

No sign at all even there that the over 60s (the most likely to be hospitalised but also to have had both doses of vaccine) were being significantly impacted by the new variant. Certainly not in terms of illness troublesome enough to require hospitalisation.

Really that is what matters.

There appears a clear downward fall in age groups so that the most cases by far are in the youngest. And the gulf between the under 60s and over 60s looks like the biggest gap of all. Exactly what we need to see. As pre vaccine the over 60s were by miles the ones most impacted. Only the vaccine can account for this change.

This certainly seems to suggest we can beat off this variant with a few weeks hard graft - even if it spreads - without any significant new wave impact in the data where it really matters - hospital not case numbers.

Very encouraging.

Honesty without this thread and your level headed objective analysis I think I’d be in a panicked heap in the corner.

Sick of reading reactionary hyped up shite in the media about this.
 
ZOE APP DATA



Predicted Cases DOWN 109 to 2551.

North West still the only UK red zone.

Predicted symptomatic cases also up a bit again to 38, 445 - a rise of 655 in day. Half yesterday.



NORTH WEST NUMBERS



(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


BOLTON 856/ 3019 V 455 / 1605 V 183 / 646 - A very big rise that takes Bolton up into the higher tier of the dark pink zone. Of course more testing finds more cases is a factor. But as I was noting yesterday GM was becoming more and more a concern not just Bolton.

As we see here unfortunately.....

BURY 530 / 2808 V 270 / 1432 Big Rise. Doubles from yesterday and into the second tier of watch zones.

Moreover - sadly a THIRD GM borough now joins in - though for now just in the lowest tier pink watch list (over 1000)

TAMESIDE 292 / 1306 V 165 / 736 - the warnings signs were there yesterday here too with a steep rise as I noted. Now realised with another.

Sadly Zoe is again reflecting what we see in real life cases but appears to be a day or two ahead. Those running the situation in GM really need to pay attention to these GM borough Zoe numbers and act on local testing and vaccinations when they see signs.

Moreover the North West now has a new leader - one of the worst numbers in the UK and above Bolton.

LANCASTER 633 / 4434 V 166 / 1163 - TRIPLED since yesterday.

North West is certainly in a bit of trouble comparative to other regions right now.


Indeed even WIRRAL has now gone light pink (first watch zone over 1000) at 513 / 1605

Merseyside has been very low for weeks.



Others GM Areas:-




MANCHESTER 264 / 485 V 139 / 255 - double yesterday

OLDHAM 175 / 750 V 87 / 373 - another doubling in 24 hours- need to watch .

ROCHDALE 60 / 275 V 27 / 122 another doubling

SALFORD 72 / 284 V 42 / 166 - not quite so bad but a sixth successive and larger increase here

STOCKPORT 115 / 398 V 112 / 389 - also a sixth successive rise but recent days the uptick very slight here.

TRAFFORD 92 / 392 V 112 / 480 - bucks the trend and actually falls a little today.

WIGAN 134 / 413 V 49 / 152 - unfortunately proximity to Bolton and the real cases rising we saw yesterday to highest in a while show these numbers almost tripling in a day not to be a shock. But are a concern.

THIS IS CLEAR WARNING TO THOSE RUNNING GREATER MANCHESTER THAT WE RISK THIS SPREADING UNLESS THEY ACT QUICKLY. BY THE TIME IT TURNS UP IN THE 5 DAY DATA IT MAY BE EVERYWHERE. NO NEED RO PANIC BUT THERE IS NEED NOT TO WAIT AND LET IT GET OUT OF CONTROL


Chorley, Fylde and High Peak all inching up too but not to any extent worth monitoring.




But according to Zoe Cases are rising everywhere in England particularly a bit as is inevitable as we all relax.

Not in of itself a big concern Just a need to watch carefully




Aberdeen (Scotland) 1465 / 6481 v 1663 / 7357 is a bit of a fall but for now

STILL WORST AREA IN UK ON ZOE




Newport (Wales) 155 / 1020 V 166 / 1094 - after days of fall has almost dropped enough to be off the lowest red list entirely.

North Lanarkshire (Scotland) 1046 / 3091 V 1533 / 4531 - is an even better fall here but just on the middle grade of pink in UK regions.



Others in England:-

Redbridge from the south is up enough to top this list in England today at 1239 / 4106

North Lincolnshire 686 / 4023 V 738 / 4329 - small fall

Bedford 578 / 3398 V 597 / 3511 - a small fall

Leeds 2096 / 2674 V 2192 / 2797 - a small fall

Bradford 1994 / 3739 V 2076 / 3891 - falling a little.

Leicester (708 / 2006 V 812 / 2300) and Hinckley (282 / 2532 V 286/ 2653) both fall a little

Ashfield in Nottinghamshire is UP though from the 1000s to 287/ 2270 - in the second pink tier.


So today most places going down and a lot are in the North West too. But more are going up - even if just bit by bit - to be entirely expected as we open up - in Greater Manchester than we would maybe like to see.

Would not be surprised to see a couple more boroughs turn pink this weekend.

But not panic stations yet. We solve Bolton and stop the rest getting out of control. Both achievable in next week or two.
 
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How far are we off all over 50s being offered the 2nd jab ...can't be far off ?
 
Scotland data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

370 cases - was 413 last week

1.8% positivity - was 1.6% last week.


THIS IS ABOUT ALL WE WILL GET TODAY OTHER THAN THE GOV UK NUMBERS LATER.

NO HOSPITAL DATA AT WEEKENDS ANYWHERE NOW AND NO CASES FROM WALES UNTIL TOMORROW.

AND NO ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS UNTIL MONDAY NOW EITHER.

N IRELAND MAY OR MAY NOT SAY SOMETHING BUT ONLINE DATA NOT AT WEEKEND NOW EITHER.
 
Ages of the 370 Scotland cases

14 aged over 65 (Not exactly panic stations, is a slightly higher % and raw number than usual though)
49 aged 45-64

130 aged 25-44
165 aged 0-24
 
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