Coronavirus (2021) thread

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BlueAnorak said:
Cases are rising

But hospitalisations are not rising much and deaths are barely rising at all, both due to the sensible vulnerable being double vaccinated.

This is excellent news. Current restrictions may need to be kept for a month or so to get us closer to full herd immunity (via vaccination), but once we have got there, all restrictions need to be lifted to let our now primed immune systems deal with the new strains that are not that much more dangerous to our herd. It then becomes like flu to our society and should be dealt with as such. [That said normal flu only has a natural R0 of 1.5 (ave) not 3.2 (ave) for infectious Variant of Concern (IVOC) Alpha (Kent) and who knows what for IVOC Delta (India).]

It is a shame we have never shut our our borders to control our risk but the demand to have a holiday in the sun is intense (see numerous newspaper articles about holidays and the chattering classes demanding their pandemic holidays) . On this point it should be noted that Genome testing has proven that the Autumn 2nd wave was brought on by holiday makers returning from Spain with a new strain not by the original strain.
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Spot on!

21st June, 28th June… 12th July… I’m not bothered at all, if the reasoning is sound with a target to get all of the vulnerable and at-risk and as many or all of the over ‘xxx’-age-they-feel-is-the-right-age to ensure have got both vaccine jabs done before we fully open up.

But once we’ve got there, more fool you if you have refused the vaccine! We are opening up and that’s that.

The borders is the biggest thing throughout this whole thing for me. We are an island, we should find it easy to close out borders and keep on top of where people are coming from. And it should also be easy to track that people from India, or now Vietnam, can fly to Helsinki or Lisbon and then into Great Britain rather than directly into Britain from those places and enforce quarantine on these people trying to bypass the quarantine rules.
 
Comparisons with case numbers and varients between the UK and even other European countries are more or less meaningless. The UK sequences around 50% of cases, Germany about 3% now, Italy 1% & Spain none. Germany carries out around 300k tests a day on a much larger population yet we do over double that on a low day and well over a million on a big day.

The UK has a very clear picture of what varients are in circulation whereas most other countries don't have a clue.
 


More of this sort of news around the country would be most welcome today, particularly Bolton, Greater Manchester and Scotland where this Delta variant has hit hardest so far it seems.
 
Blue and still suffering said:
The media don't help in this, one minute they are pushing for the lifting of restrictions, the next it's we need to carry on with them to reduce the spread.
Also and perhaps this is me being a bit thick but apparently there was a comment this morning on the radio from one professor that the vaccines were masking the spread of the new variant. Isn't that what they are supposed to do? or am I missing the point?
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SAGE, the scientists and the media have a lot to answer for and I hope some of them face criminal charges when the review is done next year. There is already a lot of people giving up, taking their own lives and others on the brink. People want their lives back.
I said it last week some of these people advising the goverment are enjoying this moment and don't want to be out of the spotlight.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
she is Comparing a position when aggressive action was needed because nobody in the country was vaccinated.

it’s a different position now but she ignores this.

not arsed about 21 June being delayed but crikey there are some out there who are demanding lockdowns And aggressive action.

getting most of the adult population vaccinated in the uk is pretty aggressive action .
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It would be if it had happened.
Less than half the adult population have had two doses so far.
 
ayrshire_blue said:


More of this sort of news around the country would be most welcome today, particularly Bolton, Greater Manchester and Scotland where this Delta variant has hit hardest so far it seems.
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Is it just Glasgow with hotspots or many other parts
 
I've been told I've received a letter to my family home in Manchester offering me to register for a COVID jab. I'd be tempted to come over and have the jab but there's no guarantee I'll be offered the same one for my second dose in Ireland, so I just have to sit it out I suppose.
 
Nebuchadnezzar said:
I've been told I've received a letter to my family home in Manchester offering me to register for a COVID jab. I'd be tempted to come over and have the jab but there's no guarantee I'll be offered the same one for my second dose in Ireland, so I just have to sit it out I suppose.
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Couldn’t you arrange to have it in Northern Ireland?
 
denislawsbackheel said:
It would be if it had happened.
Less than half the adult population have had two doses so far.
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they are doing it right based on risk , of course , so the older and / or more risky you are the higher percentage vaccinated in that group as you would expect to protect them

all over 50s will now be offered a second dose by 21 June .

if people refuse the vaccine then they are selfish pricks.

we can criticise the government for a lot of things the roll out of the vaccine programme isn’t one of them.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
SAGE, the scientists and the media have a lot to answer for and I hope some of them face criminal charges when the review is done next year.
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Don't like the facts? Imprison people for telling the truth. Ridiculous.


BLUEMATT23 said:
There is already a lot of people giving up, taking their own lives and others on the brink
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This is emphatically false. As far as data allows us to understand, the incidence of suicide is down not up. Scaremongering on this is highly reprehensible and can harm vulnerable people. Please stop.

Blues, if you feel despair reach out for help.

www.samaritans.org

Samaritans - Here to listen

Samaritans works to make sure there’s always someone there for anyone who needs someone. Read more.
www.samaritans.org www.samaritans.org
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Don't like the facts? Imprison people for telling the truth. Ridiculous.




This is emphatically false. As far as data allows us to understand, the incidence of suicide is down not up. Scaremongering on this is highly reprehensible and can harm vulnerable people. Please stop.

Blues, if you feel despair reach out for help.

www.samaritans.org

Samaritans - Here to listen

Samaritans works to make sure there’s always someone there for anyone who needs someone. Read more.
www.samaritans.org www.samaritans.org
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It's not scaremongering, it's a personal experience to me and for people that I know
 
Marvin said:
Map of the variant.

Reference: sanger

You can do something similar for the SA variant - practically nonexistent.

You can also get the numbers/proportion of the new variant to Kent Variant if you want. Pretty useful. I guess we kind of knew this / could guess this. The data is for a fortnight to 22nd May 2021.

I'll flag up Manchester now as a potential problem area. It combines a cluster of variants with some of the lowest vaccine rates in the country.


View attachment 18332
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Nice map

But there is no potential about Manchester being a problem for the reasons you state.

I have been posting its vaccination numbers daily because they wete so low and showing how it's cases have been escalating on Zoe and saying for a week it will soon overtake Bolton. And it just has.

Unfortunately Greater Manchester is the epicentre of this variant and has one of the least vaccinated places (Manchester) and one of the most (Stockport) literally side by side.

That is not going to help either as boundaries are imaginary and do not mean a damn to a virus.

GM has to get this under control. Until it does talk of opening up in 3 weeks - in GM anyway - is pointless.

As of last night nearly all GM boroughs are in the watch list. And case numbers have skyrocketed everywhere in the past week. Nobody is getting away with it around here.

Until we get on top of this spread we cannot know which way this is going to go. The vaccinations are making a difference but I do not understand why no effort seems to be going into speeding up the dismal numbers in Manchester. Who will only just cross 50% of the population having one jab - versus Stockport close to three quarters.

The focus on Bolton has helped there and numbers seem to be stabilising but that is coming at the expense of Bury Manchester, Salford and others rising to overtake them. Narrow focus on one place just lets this variant spread faster.
 
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splinter said:
Is it just Glasgow with hotspots or many other parts
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Started in Glasgow but in other parts too mainly around the central belt, places not far from Glasgow or indeed sharing a boundary with it as is the case with Bolton and surrounding areas. Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire, North Lanarkshire, Ayrshire, West/East Dunbartonshire. All fairly local to Glasgow and easily spread.

I'm a big believer that if Glasgow can get brought under control after a spike then this is possible everywhere else up here. So here's hoping.
 
Healdplace said:
Nice map

But there is no potential about Manchester being a problem for the reasons you state.

I have been posting its vaccination numbers daily because they wete so low and showing how it's cases have been escalating on Zoe and saying for a week it will soon overtake Bolton. And it just has.

Unfortunately Greater Manchester is the epicentre of this variant and has one of the least vaccinated places (Manchester) and one of the most (Stockport) literally side by side.

That is not going to help either as boundaries are imaginary and do not mean a damn to a virus.

GM has to get this under control. Until it does talk of opening up in 3 weeks - in GM anyway - is pointless.

As of last night nearly all GM boroughs are in the watch list. And case numbers have skyrocketed everywhere in the past week. Nobody is getting away with it around here.

Until we get on top of this spread we cannot know which way this is going to go. The vaccinations are making a difference but I do not understand why no effort seems to be going into speeding up the dismal numbers in Manchester. Who will only just cross 50% of the population having one jab - versus Stockport close to three quarters.

The focus on Bolton has helped there and numbers seem to be stabilising but that is coming at the expense of Bury Manchester, Salford and others rising to overtake them. Narrow focus on one place just lets this variant spread faster.
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Don't the city regions of Manchester and Salford have a much lower vaccine take-up because - in part at least - there are around 100,000 students in those two regions who distort the usual age demographics giving a much higher proportion of u-25s who haven't yet been called for vaccination in any numbers?
 
Healdplace said:
Nice map

But there is no potential about Manchester being a problem for the reasons you state.

I have been posting its vaccination numbers daily because they wete so low and showing how it's cases have been escalating on Zoe and saying for a week it will soon overtake Bolton. And it just has.

Unfortunately Greater Manchester is the epicentre of this variant and has one of the least vaccinated places (Manchester) and one of the most (Stockport) literally side by side.

That is not going to help either as boundaries are imaginary and do not mean a damn to a virus.

GM has to get this under control. Until it does talk of opening up in 3 weeks - in GM anyway - is pointless.

As of last night nearly all GM boroughs are in the watch list. And case numbers have skyrocketed everywhere in the past week. Nobody is getting away with it around here.

Until we get on top of this spread we cannot know which way this is going to go. The vaccinations are making a difference but I do not understand why no effort seems to be going into speeding up the dismal numbers in Manchester. Who will only just cross 50% of the population having one jab - versus Stockport close to three quarters.

The focus on Bolton has helped there and numbers seem to be stabilising but that is coming at the expense of Bury Manchester, Salford and others rising to overtake them. Narrow focus on one place just lets this variant spread faster.
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Manchester Borough best get vaccinating
That's if the people take up the offer..
 
@lancs blue just snuck in ahead of me there

The low vaccine %age in Manchester (~50% first jab) can be seen in the LTLAs of Oxford, Nottingham, Birmingham, Salford, Greenwich, Westminster, Newcastle, Southampton....these are the city LTLAs, not the entire greater city area. So it's either that people who live centrally in cities are all reluctant to get jabbed, or something else in the demographics;

- there are way more younger people still awaiting (Mcr is now jabbing any over 18)
- there are way more students who may be registered in those cities to live but have been jabbed at home (i neevr registered GP at uni, left it at my dad's area)
- there are higher ethnic populations that are less willing to take the jab (bottom reason for me, but still could be a contributory one)

i'm willing to bet you could find a good correlation between mean age and 1st dose %age, up to about a week ago when it started to be opened up to all
 
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