Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ayrshire_blue]

That makes a lot of sense.

Earlier this year we were hearing estimates that (as I recall) around 20% of people may have had the virus in different levels, obviously far higher than the c.7% (4.4m) who've actually tested positive.

I'd assume a significant number of those 20% were younger age groups who, such as all the folk still making train journeys into London in March 2020.

So I guess you'd expect their first vaccine dose to be giving enhanced protection ?

That's my thoughts yeah. So hopefully as we start to vaccinate more and more of the younger age groups even with only first doses then it might balance some of the loss that the Delta variant is doing to the efficacy if there have been significant numbers infected.

 

[somapop]

As pointed out by Dr John Campbell for weeks, the Pfizer jab can be a cause of Myocarditis (Heart inflamation.)
A report from Isreal today says 1/20,000 young men get it after vaccination

Pfizer's jab is linked to heart inflammation in Israel, medics say

A study by health officials in Israel found 148 cases of the condition myocarditis, which is swelling in the heart, that they think could be linked to vaccination because they happened soon after.

mol.im

The moral - Nothibg really to worry about, but If you're young man don't exercise for 3 weeks after Pfizer vaccination then build it up slowly and watch out for chest pain or irregular heart rythems as you build it up again or you could have a heart attack
Probably as dangerous as the AZ jab for younger women - so the advice needs to change a bit. Follow the above advice and you'll be fine.

Isn’t this (or has it been) linked with all these long covid heart racing issues (which I’ve suffered from?)
I’ve known from a kid over exerting when ill knackers you out.
I’ve knocked running on the head given recent heart racing.
Gentle gym stuff & walks now.

At the same time I’m rapidly putting weight on. Bitch of a catch 22.

 

[Marvin]

Some new research out from European Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute EMBL-EBI, Hinxton, UK 2. Joint Biosecurity Center JBC 3. Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, UK 4. The Francis Crick Institute, London, UK 5. Public Health England PHE 6. London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK

They find Indian variant to be 37% more transmissible than Kent variant. Summary and link to research is in the link below.

https://www.ebi.ac.uk/about/news/announcements/genomic-surveillance-sarscov2-england

 

[Marvin]

Mail reporting a Nepalese variant. Not a very convincing story at the moment. They are claiming it to be different to the Indian variants. It could turn out to be one and the same?

 

[Healdplace]

A rather speculative article of maybe, ifs and buts.

Best of all we get told that Portugal may have the variant so may get shut down for travel from UK.

Days after it was OK to let thousands of fans go there from two of the cities already struggling with the Indian variant here. Because we could not risk letting in a few EUFA bods so that it could be far more sensibly played here.

Hopefully there is nothing to worry about - hard to know from the maybes in that article but probably not on past record.

The worrying thing is this infers the media will be forever more off in search of the scoop of the end times by being the first to discover and report the Armageddon Variant where even Bruce Willis cannot save the world.

Which will be the cue for most people to finally say to papers like this - arma geddon out of here and not buy this pap.

These papers really need to stop reporting every new variant as if they are more than what they usually are. A variant of a virus that varies a lot - usually with minimal impact on us.

Only if they actually have genuine data to suggest a concern say so. Not report them all and hope you get lucky once Gambling on doom and gloom should not be the aim of the media.

 

[Healdplace]

Some new research out from European Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute EMBL-EBI, Hinxton, UK 2. Joint Biosecurity Center JBC 3. Wellcome Sanger Institute, Hinxton, UK 4. The Francis Crick Institute, London, UK 5. Public Health England PHE 6. London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK

They find Indian variant to be 37% more transmissible than Kent variant. Summary and link to research is in the link below.

https://www.ebi.ac.uk/about/news/announcements/genomic-surveillance-sarscov2-england

That is the right kind of data and what we do need. And pretty clear from how fast this has spread here since we let it sneak in that this is o the money.

But the good thing is the faster it spreads the faster we get it dominant and we can peak its wave.

A new variant is not really a big deal if it spreads faster and only really if it makes people more sick or evades the vaccine enough to be a threat. Faster spread might in a sense be a good thing as a wave over in 3 weeks is a lot better than one that builds up over months. If there is no medical and hospital care conequence.

 

[Rammy Blue]

It’s so ridiculous, we are busy here deciding which countries go on to our green list, yet then they go to amber/red when they’ve had visitors from here as we take the Indian variant over.

Just listening to GMB‘s report and they quite cleverly don’t point out it’s down to us it’s there, lol.

 

[Marvin]

That is the right kind of data and what we do need. And pretty clear from how fast this has spread here since we let it sneak in that this is o the money.

But the good thing is the faster it spreads the faster we get it dominant and we can peak its wave.

A new variant is not really a big deal if it spreads faster and only really if it makes people more sick or evades the vaccine enough to be a threat. Faster spread might in a sense be a good thing as a wave over in 3 weeks is a lot better than one that builds up over months. If there is no medical and hospital care conequence.

• As in India where after explosive growth it is falling away almost just as fast. Self-limiting but after it rushes through it will have changed somewhat, and our immunity will be eroded somewhat. The question is to what degree.
  
  
• It's now growing fast in South Africa. Which will probably be a seasonal effect.
  
  
• Another thing to note (which you probably already have) is surging vaccination levels in China. For some reason (manufacturing?), they are starting an enormous vaccination program on a scale that hasn't been seen...
  

What happens when USA, China finish their domestic vaccination? ANd India is the biggest vaccine manufacturer in the world. It has a long way to go to vaccinate its own population but might be in a better place soon and this may change vaccine supply.

• Then there's a new wave of vaccines in the pipeline that will be boosters. GSK, Valneva may be more effective. GSK because they are testing a variant-based vaccine (Phase 3 trial), and Valneva because it uses the whole virus model. Moderna is also trialing a variant-based vaccine. No doubt Pfizer and Astrazeneca are working on this too.
  
  When these are deployed the world will be in a completely different place. We will have a base level of immunity where we all have had some exposure to the wild-type, and the world will have unprecedented manufacturing capability (assuming there are raw materials) and this is the period when we will probably finish Covid off. It will then be a flu and subject to periodic vaccination which we won't think much about. But this needs to happen this Autumn.
  
  I think there is a level of planning and thinking going on which means that we basically complete our first round of vaccination with the first generation of vaccines, and then see where we are and incorporate the latest antigen in boosters that finish it off.
  
  So the two uncertainties are how the virus evolves, and what that means to our immunity, and when will the next generation vaccines be ready?
  
  
• It might be smarter to move away from the spike protein and to have a diversified attack next time around.

 

[True_Blue69]

Mail reporting a Nepalese variant. Not a very convincing story at the moment. They are claiming it to be different to the Indian variants. It could turn out to be one and the same?

Scummy twats need to start being held to account. Why are we the only country obsessed with variants, no one else seems to be bothered. I’ll tell you why, reporting on them generates clicks and is keeping the gutter press in business.

 

[grunge]

Scummy twats need to start being held to account. Why are we the only country obsessed with variants, no one else seems to be bothered. I’ll tell you why, reporting on them generates clicks and is keeping the gutter press in business.

Others are bothered, we're just not hearing about it as much. for example most places blocked travel from us over the Kent Variant and Austria has blocked travel from us last week over the India Variant spikes we are having now.

That being said, The Nepal variant seems to just be the India Variant.

Im only taking note of variants when countries/WHO or reuptable science based sources mention it. Everything else is likely to be just noise.

 

[Marvin]

Mail reporting a Nepalese variant. Not a very convincing story at the moment. They are claiming it to be different to the Indian variants. It could turn out to be one and the same?

Oh look...

 

[Marvin]

Scummy twats need to start being held to account. Why are we the only country obsessed with variants, no one else seems to be bothered. I’ll tell you why, reporting on them generates clicks and is keeping the gutter press in business.

Because it's a trait of the epidemic. Recall the growth of the Kent variant prior to Christmas and now another strain is replacing the Kent variant.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

0 deaths - was 2 last week

49 cases - was 58 last week

0.6% positivity - was 0.5% last week

Apparently one third of those cases were NOT Welsh but in Wales when tested

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths:

12 with 3 from NW.

Last week 9 with 2 NW - wk before 6 with 0 - wk before 9 with 2.

So the slight increase in numbers week to week keeps happening.

Though there ARE caveats here.

Some of this likely still some holiday hangover data.

PLUS one of these in 111 days old so may be discounted

And nother - remarkably - is 393 days old from May 2020! Which probably will be.

All 3 NW deaths were in East Lancashire (covering Blackburn/Burnley/Rossendale).

Other regions East 1, London 4, Midlands 2, NE & Yorks 2, - zero in SW & SW regions.

Age ranges 1 aged 40 - 59, 6 aged 60 - 79, 5 aged 80 +

 

[Healdplace]

England Hospital Deaths:

Here are the Numbers for the past 2 weeks by date of death (as in deaths reported FROM that date added day to day)

DATE ||WITH TOTAL DEATHS AFTER 1 DAY / 2 DAYS / 3 DAYS / 4 DAYS / 5 DAYS = NOW CURRENT TOTAL

21 MAY|| 2 / 3 / 5 / 7 / 7 = NOW 7

22 MAY || 0 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 2 = NOW 2

23 MAY || 0 / 4 / 4 / 5 / 5 = NOW 5

24 MAY || 1 / 6 / 7 / 7 / 7 = NOW 7

25 MAY || 0 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 2 = NOW 2

26 MAY || 3 / 10 / 11 / 11 / 11 = NOW 13

27 MAY || 1 / 4 / 4 / 4 / 4 = NOW 5

28 MAY || 1 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 5 = NOW 5

29 MAY || 1 / 2 / 2 /3 / 4 = NOW 4

30 MAY || 0 / 1 / 5 / 5 ?

31 MAY || 0 / 5 / 8 /? / ?

1 JUN || 1 / 2 / ? / ? / ?

2 JUN || 1 / ? / ? / ? / ?


? means days not added as 5 days have not yet passed.


Hard to interpret yet but decide for yourself.

Looks as if there are smallish signs of a recent uptick. But as yet not dramatic. And may turn out to be just a blip when the more recent dates add extra days data. Certainly not as yet much to worry over. As even with vaccines more cases will equal more deaths - just a smaller % of them as most cases involve the less vulnerable. But a smaller % of a growing number may still translate into a small rise.

 

[Resurrection Joe...]

Just had my 2nd AZ shot...no significant issues to report....and not the first time i've been jabbed in a car park in Harpurhey.

 

[Bluesince1979]

Scummy twats need to start being held to account. Why are we the only country obsessed with variants, no one else seems to be bothered. I’ll tell you why, reporting on them generates clicks and is keeping the gutter press in business.

Fuelled by the variant fetishists like the fella that commented above you.
some people get off on it so the media print it

 

[ayrshire_blue]

A bit of light hearted humour for an otherwise dismal, tragic topic. Please don't take any offence.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Seems a lot of media having a negative day again with no holidays and new variants, just as we are getting back some of our lives. Things will never be the same again.

 

[True_Blue69]

Seems a lot of media having a negative day again with no holidays and new variants, just as we are getting back some of our lives. Things will never be the same again.

Can’t work out if you are serious or not, course they will be. You should have learnt by now that the media are pricks who have led with fear from the start, partly directed by SAGE looking at early meeting minutes that were published.