Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Surely there's a huge argument for drop in centers advertised as AZ only so for anyone who's really not wanting that miniscule blood clot risk can wait for MRNA and those (like me) who's just desperate to get vaccinated as quickly as possible can go?

Would speed up the entire process, if the risk is documented then I feel its only right that people still have the chance to take that (very small) risk balanced against catching Covid while they wait.
Active athletic men should have AZ at any age. The Myocarditis from Pfizer / Moder a looks a bigger risk than clots in men for AZ from the Israeli study.
Young men should stop exercising for 2 weeks after mRNA vaccination and gradually ramp up again afterwards starting with gentle exercise.
 
Don't agree about Fergusson - he always overcooks the predictions pretty dramatically. His prediction success is quite frankly shit.

point was, He'll still just be reporting the data that comes from the modelling. He's not stating an "option" as such. that data will then be 1 small fraction of the larger analysis SAGE and the like use to advice the Gov.

but then, how was his prediction overcooked? we're at 152,183 deaths now. with all the lockdowns, social distancing, masks etc etc. 500K is now looking pretty conservative if we did nothing.
 
point was, He'll still just be reporting the data that comes from the modelling. He's not stating an "option" as such. that data will then be 1 small fraction of the larger analysis SAGE and the like use to advice the Gov.

but then, how was his prediction overcooked? we're at 152,183 deaths now. with all the lockdowns, social distancing, masks etc etc. 500K is now looking pretty conservative if we did nothing.
His teams model so his teams outcome prediction based on his code not actual data.
His teams original modelling was based on the original virus strain (R0 = 1.5-2.2) with nothing done to stop it. As nobody understood asymptomatic transition back then his model was crap. Regardless of his prediction program savy statasticians like me analysed his teams modelling code and said it was shit.
His model for a massive summer wave this year were based on NO bad boy variant. It was shit with actuals undercutting his best case prediction by half.
Boys and Wolves come to mind.
 
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His original modelling was based on the original virus strain with nothing done to stop it. As nobody understood asymptomatic transition back then his model was crap. Regardless of his prediction program savy statasticians like me analysed his teams modelling code and said it was shit.
His model for a massive summer wave this year were based on NO bad boy variant. It was shit with actuals undercutting by half his lowest predictions

I know a number of big data science types ( at least 1 is Dr level ) who also analysed his code ( I downloaded it but couldn't be fussed to get it compiling to be honest, had better things to do with my time :D ) and all said the opposite to you. that the modelling code was sound. the data piped in though may be a different matter.

Cant say I've seen ( not looked ) anything from him about this year.
 
Surely there's a huge argument for drop in centers advertised as AZ only so for anyone who's really not wanting that miniscule blood clot risk can wait for MRNA and those (like me) who's just desperate to get vaccinated as quickly as possible can go?

Would speed up the entire process, if the risk is documented then I feel its only right that people still have the chance to take that (very small) risk balanced against catching Covid while they wait.
Couldn’t agree more. The guidance says that it “shouldn’t be offered” but it would be interesting to see what would happen. That being said, and it’s only one man, but I know of a 42 year old chap who has refused the AZ vaccine 3 times now. Says he’ll keep booking and coming in but will only have Pfizer....
 
Active athletic men should have AZ at any age. The Myocarditis from Pfizer / Moder a looks a bigger risk than clots in men for AZ from the Israeli study.
Young men should stop exercising for 2 weeks after mRNA vaccination and gradually ramp up again afterwards starting with gentle exercise.
As it’s men it won’t be at the forefront of any publicity, sadly.
 
Hospital numbers in England are up but the news is mixed. Especially in the North West.

Patients up 26 to 805 - the highest in 3 weeks (when numbers were coming down).

The driver of this is (as expected) the NW - up 10 to go over 200 to 202 - 29 up on last week.

NW was last over 200 patients 5 weeks ago when numbers were coming down.

NW also had its highest number of admissions today - 38 - since in mid April.

That was 38 out of 101 - total admissions - down from 115 yesterday but a higher % from the NW as only 31 of that 115 was NW. Recall these numbers are from 2 days ago.

Last week same day it was 95 admissions and 27 of them were from the NW. So up 11 in the week.

So not good BUT ventiltors fell from 124 to 119 and all 5 of that fall was in the NW where numbers fell from 35 to 30. Exactly the same as seven days ago.

Midlands up 10 patients to 135 and London up 9 to 247 were the other reasons that total patient numbers went up today.

So these are not drastic number changes.

We will have no data now for the weekend so it may be a few days before we can see if the slight edging up continues or something changes. Seems most likely with case numbers it will inevitaly accelerate a bit but for now we have only minor reasons to be concerned here.

But not no reason at all. The pattern is much like it is in Scotland in England.

And Wales and N Ireland are akin to another in a different way.

But they seem to yet be impacted by the new variant much. So we have to see what happens when they inevitably will be at some point. Their advantage is small numbers to start with.
 
Well done for managing to find articles about covid killing kids, bet that was fun for you. Mine is fortunate enough to not suffer with underlying health issues so like I said, I’ll wait a few years until she has any vaccine for it.

just showing you what you said about her not being harmed by covid 19 is pie in the sky and you "am I bovverd" approach to parenting astounds me but each to their own.
 
Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago


SOUTH


East Up 130 to 340 V 236

London Up 151 to 820 V 495

South East Up 123 to 563 V 338

South West Up 83 to 215 V 92


As you can see the new variant is spreading across the UK and numbers rising pretty much across the board.




MIDLANDS



East up 30 to 274 V 198

West up 55 to 370 V 226



Fairly modest rises here



NORTH



North East up 41 to 154 V 97

Yorkshire up 44 to 465 V 343


AND

NORTH WEST up 112 to 1755 V 1251


The NW up but not by the most today and pro rata one of the least. But around a 40% week to week rise.

London though up a lot and a few other regions starting to stir. This is no longer just a NW increase.
 
Active athletic men should have AZ at any age. The Myocarditis from Pfizer / Moder a looks a bigger risk than clots in men for AZ from the Israeli study.
Young men should stop exercising for 2 weeks after mRNA vaccination and gradually ramp up again afterwards starting with gentle exercise.

I'll take the full year off, just to be sure.
 
just showing you what you said about her not being harmed by covid 19 is pie in the sky and you "am I bovverd" approach to parenting astounds me but each to their own.

What a prick you are. You do what you thinks best for your kids and I’ll do what I thinks best for mine.
 
Full GM details:


Total cases 945 - up 67 on Yesterday - which is slightly over average of the 112 daily NW rise

Wk to wk up 194 of the NW rise of 504 - well under the expected 50%. So GM not rising as fast as some areas in NW are week to week



BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK


BOLTON 135 / UP 18 /DOWN 106

BURY 64/ UP 9/ UP 19

MANCHESTER 199 / DOWN 21 / UP 45

OLDHAM 43 / UP 14 / UP 25

ROCHDALE 66 / UP 8 / UP 23

SALFORD 126 / UP 21 / UP 49

STOCKPORT 102 / DOWN 3 / UP 49

TAMESIDE 49 / UP 15 / UP 19

TRAFFORD 61 / DOWN 2 / UP 24

WIGAN 100 / UP 8 / UP 47


Big wk to wk fall for Bolton is more good news. Aside from Manchester above it Salford almost was.

Bolton, Manchester, Stockport and Trafford down day to day in a day when UK numbers soared is good.

But Wigan just made it to a century and so 5 of the 10 boroughs into 3 figures today.


May be the turnimg point of the GM pandemic. I guess we will see where it goes from here.
 
As at 30th May, 19 additional mutations have been detected in the 'delta' strain, and the delta strain represented 79% of genomic sequences. The mutations probably have zero effect and if they don't have a beneficial effect they may die out. I don't know whether the 79% figure is skewed by surge testing. Could be. The Kent variant is collapsing in numbers which is a bit galling.
 
What a depressing couple of days news wise
Just as we've got some freedom looks like we're heading for a 3rd wave.
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-





Tameside 190, Oldham 199, Rochdale 268, Trafford 278, Bury 321, Wigan 383, Stockport 432, Salford 483, Bolton 890, Manchester 1000.



The table above tells its own story. Bolton no longer top in GM as it has been for 2 weeks or more. Drops over100 and is now way off top slot.

Manchester which is not surprisingly nearly always top scorer given its size is once again symbolically on exactly 1000. That return to normality is the cobsequence of B9olton falling as the rest of GM rose and they met higher than I had hoped. Was wanting it tobe nearer the 500 mark. Not 900 as it means Bolton's success was outpaced y the other boroughs climb upwards.

We now have to await some sign they can turm things around like Bolton has.


Only Tameside and Oldham left below 200 - JUST!
 
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