Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

England hospital data Part 2

Total patients up just 11 on the day to 1301 - last week the rise was 37 to 1030. So numbers up about 26% wk to wk.

The bad news is the NW rose by 9 of those 11 to 445. Although that is one of the lowest rises recently in the region.

London (down 3 to 300) and Midlands down 11 to 194) had better days BUT Yorkshire had the worst - UP 12 to 187.


As for ventilators - thee too rose by quite a bit. 17 on the day to 229. Last week they also rose by 17 to 187.

Of these the NW unfortuntely was up by 2 to 83. Still much the highest number. That is a rise of 12 in the last 48 hours from 71 (the fall being the consequence of all the NW deaths we have had reported in the past few days).

NW last week was on 70 ventilators - so a rise of just under 20%

London rose by 4 to 60 - up from 51 wk to wk. Midlands up 5 to 38 - up 14 wk to wk. And Yorkshire up 7 to 29 up 11 from 18. Both much bigger rises than the NW.

So we have to expect deaths rising in these regions too and the England numbers going up in coming weeks as discussed earlier in the repirt on todays England hospital deaths numbers.

Headline here - numbers rising - storing up more deaths sadly in coming weeks - but not exponentially rising in the circumstances.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Thanks Ayrshire - very helpful.

Those over 65 numbers are very consistent with what we see in N Ireland daily and at twice their case numbers from a week in one day.

It is why there is a real chance of us opening up in coming weeks.

Because only 2/3% or so of the most vulnerable are catching this thing even in Scotland.

Exactly as is true elsewhere.

Happily the younger people overwhelmingly catching this now are much less likely to die or become long term hospital patients keeping those numbers to a minimum

And vaccinating as many as possible i those ages is going to depress that.

THose numbers are actually really good news imo.

Even if that rise infers England will increase too today and we may have a bit of a scary looking number.

But cases are not the key. Just a scary number right now. The number of those catching it who will get sick, stay in hospital for more than a day or two and a few weeks later sadly die are.

And ALL the evidence we are seeing from everywhere is consistently showing the same thing. These are a much much smaller percentage than they were before the vaccinations.

Go enjoy your holiday! You deserve it.

Thanks HP, weather been kind last 2 days but in typical Scottish fashion its almost the polar opposite for the next two. But yep, again I agree with your assessment - it's my take on things too.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Well another day passes and there's still zero evidence of exponential rises in hospital cases and even less in the deaths even though it's well been over a month and a half for this wave. I guess there will be a lot of apologies on this thread but I doubt it. I suspect the people that would like the country locked down over 1 case will still have their head buried in the sand rocking in the corner.

 

[BlueAnorak]

its the fact that 40 people had had both jabs and were still in hospital put the dampners on things for me.

But they were in hospital and most were highly likely to be old/frail from the reason they were admitted to hospital in the first place.

 

[grunge]

Vaccinations are right down. Looks like supply problems. When Hancock and Johnson announced the delay in the easing of lockdown I recall them saying this would allow another circa 3.5m vaccinations, and people on this forum very quickly picked up on the fact that at the current rate many more than that would be vaccinated. I'm guessing they knew at that point that the vaccine supply would dry up somewhat. if that's true why not just be straight with people and tell them ?

the English data hasn't been added in yet. so looks like it fell off a cliff yesterday but didn't.

 

[Healdplace]

Other nations hospital data:

231 patients (171 Scotland, 47 Wales, 13 Northern Ireland) So TOTAL UK = 1532.

(Last week was 193 + 1030 England = 1223

So a rise of 309 wk to wk - an increase of 25.2%



19 ventilated (18 Scotland, 1 Wales, 0 Northern Ireland) So TOTAL UK = 248

(Last week was 18 + 187 England) So TOTAL UK = 205

So a rise of 43 wk to wk - an increase of 21%

 

[BlueAnorak]

There are indeed big decisions coming on vaccinations for the second half of the year.

Who gets a booster (probably over 60s for sure maybe over 50s if it is practicable in the constrained time frame). They might even let places like Boot's sell jabs to anyone else like they do with the flu jabs not given free to the over 60s or probably over 50s and all age vulnerable again this year

Do we give the same as the first two jabs or one of the other vaccines as a booster (trials and study ongoing due to be reported by Augut but we may need to decide before then)?

Can they be given simultaneously with the flu jab in Sep/Oct/Nov as that would vastly reduce the admin problem and time required and flu was so low last winter because we were isolating and doing the stuff required for Covid that worked for flu as well it is clear people will just be less vigilent to a greater or smaller degree once we open up so flu will likely be back with a bif of a bang this winter.

And - yes - how quickly can we etablish it is safe to vaccinate those not old enough to give consent on their own? Something that will always rightly require more time, thought and care.

Kids at high school need it - or let the current variant rip. At some point a variant will hit the streets that they have no immunity too that could be very dangerous for them.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

the English data hasn't been added in yet. so looks like it fell off a cliff yesterday but didn't.

Won’t be added in today. The system they record it on fell over yesterday so will need manual update. Might not reflect those figures for a few days. Big weekend push coming up though so they might be added in next Monday……..

 

[BlueAnorak]

Unhappily today's hospital deaths in England are well up,

25 with 10 from the NW. Last wk was 16 with 4 and wk before 12 with 4.

Deaths are now clearly starting to rise as I guess was inevitable.

And the NW again understandably is a big factor.

Though if this the worst of it from the region it may not be terrible news.

But definitely not good news.

Weekend factor. Tuesday and Wednesday are always the worst. In reality you can double the numbers on Sun and Mon and halve the numbers on Tue and Wed.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Well, had a week off here, some things have changed, others not so much.

Bad: Cancelled our French holiday as 19yo can't travel under current restrictions and they're only getting tighter.
Good: 19yo and 21yo sons both got first jabs
Bad: UK cases still remorselessly rising ~exponentially, doubling time ~two weeks
Good: European cases still mainly plummeting, save for Portugal and Spain it seems. Vaccination in EU looks increasingly likely to win the race with Delta.
Bad: hospitalisations and now it seems probably deaths following the exponential growth of cases (always expected, but still...)
Good: I think we are likely to peak this wave within a month.

Why the latter?

We're currently vaccinating at a rate to cover ~10% of the population in a month (and have been for several months)
Currently over 60% of the population are vaccinated, leaving 40% susceptible (numbers include children, and single vaxxed, but roughly)
So we'll reduce the number of susceptible people from 40% to 30%, a factor of 0.75. That's equivalent to knocking down R from ~1.3 it is now to ~1.0. Zero growth.

It gets better: we're currently infecting ~10,000 daily, so they become immune. But it's likely that's a huge underestimate of real infections, which on historical rates are likely ~2.5x higher, say 25,000. Equivalent to 10% of vaccinations, so worth having.

But if that continued to double at the current rate, it would be 100,000 daily. It's better still; vaccinations hit those already immune through infection as well as the unprotected, but infections only target the susceptible. And likely ~25% of the population has acquired antibodies through infection. Those those 100,000 infections would actually be worth ~130,000 vaccinations. Which is half the number currently being fully vaccinated daily.

So here's an optimistic prediction. The current growth rate of ~30% weekly will drop by ~1% a day on average over the next month to zero.

Bookmark this and come back and tell me I'm a fool when it goes tits up. The current Euros potential superspreader might just catalyse a big increase...

[I think this is in line with some of the modelling which suggested we'd be at or around peak when the four week delay is up, but can't locate it]

Nice to see you back posting. I recall the modelling indicating worse hospitalisations and deaths than what we currently have. Someone posted Imperials modelling compared to what is happening a day or so ago on here.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

There are indeed big decisions coming on vaccinations for the second half of the year.

Who gets a booster (probably over 60s for sure maybe over 50s if it is practicable in the constrained time frame). They might even let places like Boot's sell jabs to anyone else like they do with the flu jabs not given free to the over 60s or probably over 50s and all age vulnerable again this year

Do we give the same as the first two jabs or one of the other vaccines as a booster (trials and study ongoing due to be reported by Augut but we may need to decide before then)?

Can they be given simultaneously with the flu jab in Sep/Oct/Nov as that would vastly reduce the admin problem and time required and flu was so low last winter because we were isolating and doing the stuff required for Covid that worked for flu as well it is clear people will just be less vigilent to a greater or smaller degree once we open up so flu will likely be back with a bif of a bang this winter.

And - yes - how quickly can we etablish it is safe to vaccinate those not old enough to give consent on their own? Something that will always rightly require more time, thought and care.

UCLH are running trials of a single Covid booster/flu vaccine which would be great but flu vaccine supplies are often difficukt to pin down. Biggest problem is what do you do if there’s no flu in Australia to predict what type we might get here?

I think the booster will be given to cohorts 1-4 and I don't think we will be vaccinating children against it this year, or any year and, in my view, nor should we.

I also think there will be a huge amount of respiratory illnesses this winter, with many children affected,

 

[unicorn]

Not sure if it increases or decreases it tbh, out of the classrooms and into fresh air for a lot of them, it might actually have a beneficial affect as opposed to a detrimental one.

Huge numbers in any case, now just around 700 or so off the peak cases in January. I know we now have the vaccines etc but just how far are these numbers going to climb? 3,000, 5,000, 10,000?

I assumed there'd be a lot more mingling in pubs, cafes, trains and ferries during the holiday, but I hope you're right.

 

[unicorn]

England hospital update:

A good day in the NW.

Fewest people admitted for over 2 weeks. Just 42. Seven days ago it was 66.

This is also the lowest % of the daily England admissions from the NW in some weeks too. Still the most at just over 25% But a week ago it was daily aound 33%.

There were 171 admissions (2 day old data remember) down from 178 the day before AND lower than last week too when it was 187.

Unfortuntely that is where the good news for the NW ends. See post below.

Seizing on positives here, but a week-on-week reduction in admissions is definitely good news.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I recall the modelling indicating worse hospitalisations and deaths than what we currently have.

There is huge uncertainty on short term models - you'll recall the graphs had enormous shaded intervals showing ranges- and they don't even include uncertainty on the assumptions.

Hospitalisations seem to be following cases at the moment, as you'd expect. Not sure if vaccination will be expected impact that faster than cases any more, I guess it depends if the hospitalisations are mainly in age groups yet to have 2nd jabs or not.

Overall, unfortunately, it's proceeding as expected, still rising exponentially, but as I posted, I think good reason to be optimistic in a few weeks.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago


SOUTH


East UP 29 to 442 V 385 - the East as a region is doing OK - hospital numbers low too.

London UP 43 to 1066 V 813

South East DOWN 1 to 817 V 585

South West DOWN 58 to 688 V 539

Not huge rises here week to week which is good.






MIDLANDS



East UP 92 to 600 V 365

West UP 184 to 821 V 498



Midlands starting to go up on all measures now.




NORTH



North East DOWN 134 to 714 V 618- Not much of a rise here happily.


Yorkshire DOWN 16 to 975 V 674 - up week to week but still ot got to 1000 despite being close for days.



AND

NORTH WEST UP 349 to 2790 V 2017 - unfortunately the biggest rise in a while here.



Past weeks NW numbers are 2017 - 2157 - 2858 - 2754 - 2538 - 2107 - 2441 - 2790

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 1840 - 2112 - 1976 - 2317 - 2191 - 2134 -2262 - 2017

GM numbers in past week 1014 - 925 - 1341 - 1306 - 1151- 974 - 1086 - 1248

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I don't think we will be vaccinating children against it this year, or any year and, in my view, nor should we

I strongly disagree with this - but I can understand the viewpoint.

For older children, at least, the downsides are minimal, whereas the downsides of continued disruption are big, the dangers of COVID real albeit relatively small, and the knock on to the whole population potentially big too.

I've a 16yo who's been isolating three times so far. I don't want that again. I think we should offer (voluntarily at parental consent of course) vaccines to 12-17yo, and exempt the vaccinated from any of this contact isolation.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

There is huge uncertainty on short term models - you'll recall the graphs had enormous shaded intervals showing ranges- and they don't even include uncertainty on the assumptions.

Hospitalisations seem to be following cases at the moment, as you'd expect. Not sure if vaccination will be expected impact that faster than cases any more, I guess it depends if the hospitalisations are mainly in age groups yet to have 2nd jabs or not.

Overall, unfortunately, it's proceeding as expected, still rising exponentially, but as I posted, I think good reason to be optimistic in a few weeks.

hospital admissions are not rising as quickly as they did in the 2nd wave, and this indian variant is more contagious and is likely to result in more hospitalisation. from my in expert eye it would seem to me that they overegged the models somewhat.

 

[Healdplace]

Full GM details:


Total cases 1248 - UP 162 on Yesterday - from NW rise of 349. So just below the 50% par - OK news.

Wk to wk UP 234 when the NW rose by 773, biggest rise in a while - So GM up by well below expected 386 or so.

So GM had another good day wk to wk relative to rest of the region.


BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 118 / UP 39 / UP 15

BURY 107 / UP 36 / UP 29

MANCHESTER 321 / UP 55 / UP 53

OLDHAM 75 / DOWN 18 / UP 30

ROCHDALE 85 / UP 12 / UP 24

SALFORD 129 / UP 18 / UP 13

STOCKPORT 85 / DOWN 4 / UP 11

TAMESIDE 86 / UP 8 / UP 27

TRAFFORD 81 / DOWN 10 / DOWN 17

WIGAN 161 / UP 26 / UP 49


More ups than downs Trafford and Oldham had the best days and only one down both day to day and week to week.

Stockport flattening continues. Even up a bit on Pop Score.

Bolton had its least good day in a whole but not the biggest number in past week so OK.

All in all a good day

 

[ctwrd]

There is huge uncertainty on short term models - you'll recall the graphs had enormous shaded intervals showing ranges- and they don't even include uncertainty on the assumptions.

Hospitalisations seem to be following cases at the moment, as you'd expect. Not sure if vaccination will be expected impact that faster than cases any more, I guess it depends if the hospitalisations are mainly in age groups yet to have 2nd jabs or not.

Overall, unfortunately, it's proceeding as expected, still rising exponentially, but as I posted, I think good reason to be optimistic in a few weeks.

The models are, as they have been throughout, way, way out. Period

 

[Marvin]

I strongly disagree with this - but I can understand the viewpoint.

For older children, at least, the downsides are minimal, whereas the downsides of continued disruption are big, the dangers of COVID real albeit relatively small, and the knock on to the whole population potentially big too.

I've a 16yo who's been isolating three times so far. I don't want that again. I think we should offer (voluntarily at parental consent of course) vaccines to 12-17yo, and exempt the vaccinated from any of this contact isolation.

Vaccination of children has come onto the agenda because if you don't it will just keep spreading. Some people might be prepared to accept that risk.

As far as children go in isolation better imo to get vaccinated than get infected. Viruses are more damaging than vaccine. And as things stnd, children are likely to get infected eventually if we do not vaccinate them.

Short term though is it better to vaccinate adults overseas?