Coronavirus (2021) thread

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India has reported a new "Delta plus" coronavirus variant of concern, officials have said.

Sixteen cases of the variant, a mutation of B.1.617.2, were found in the state of Maharashtra on Tuesday, federal health secretary Rajesh Bhushan told a news conference.


Delta plus is thought to be more transmissible than the original Delta variant, according to state officials who are increasing testing and local vaccination drives.
 
Marvin said:
Well we all model risk all the time in our every day world. The idea that scientists delberately get it wrong because they are risk averse is not really credible.

You state your assumptions at the outset, and your methodology and someone else can come along and improve it.
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But they did get it wrong.
Worse, they already knew the actual vaccine effectiveness statistics against the Alpha and Delta varriants when they published the last two model sets.
All that can do, is to make it appear that scientists cry wolf, which is bad news for everyone, as it gives credence to conspiracy theory nutters.
 
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BlueHammer85 said:
Great …


India has reported a new "Delta plus" coronavirus variant of concern, officials have said.

Sixteen cases of the variant, a mutation of B.1.617.2, were found in the state of Maharashtra on Tuesday, federal health secretary Rajesh Bhushan told a news conference.


Delta plus is thought to be more transmissible than the original Delta variant, according to state officials who are increasing testing and local vaccination drives.
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Does anyone seriously give a fuck anymore, what exactly do people want to be locked down forever.
They will just keep coming up with excuse after excuse.
And yes we will all have to have a booster jab, maybe even free this year,
But Mark my words the cost after this 1 will be anything from 50-100,been saying this for over 12 months.
And by the way you will have to have it if you want to do anything whatsoever basically, oh and if yer don't work ull get it for free,,,,, happy days......... NOT
 
Saw an old mate today, he's 52, one of his 19 year old twin boys caught Covid three weeks ago, couldn't breathe and ended up being blue lighted to hospital, thankfully ok now. Mate was diagnosed positive but had the 2 doses and only had mild sniffles, his wife and other twin boy tested negative. I expect in the future we will k ow who's susceptible but twins with the same DNA will present a bit of a challenge.
 
frothy said:
It's doing my fucking head in, my Daughter and grand children live in Glasgow, they have followed every rule for the last 18 months like we have, they should be coming down to see us this weekend for the first time since the beginning of July last year , they are then going on to Liverpool to see his parents, then a week in Wales and then off to see friends in Brighton, fuck um, you can have 60,000 people in Wembley but can't go and watch your kids sports day, the world has gone fucking mad, rant over for now
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Liverpool, Brighton and Wales? That's not a trip I'd be going on :-)

Dippers, plastic Dippers, and Taffy Dippers, kin nightmare.
 
BlueAnorak said:
But they did get it wrong.
Worse, they already new vaccine effectiveness against the Alpha and Delta varriants when they published the last two model sets.
All that can do, is to make it appear that scientists cry wolf, which is bad news for everyone, as it gives credence to conspiracy theory nutters.
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But what was the difference between their assumptions and the latest estimates? I haven't checked but I heard a BBC reporter say there wasn't much in it. I can't be bothered to check it out.
 
Marvin said:
But what was the difference between their assumptions and the latest estimates? I haven't checked but I heard a BBC reporter say there wasn't much in it. I can't be bothered to check it out.
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This time round, on average around 7% lower than the "optimistic" model. Still that's better than the 17% or so they were wrong by against the "optimistic" model against the Alpha variant.
They only undershot on the AZ 1 dose for hospitalisation figure.
 
RobMCFC said:
Australia have strict quarantine for 14 days, don’t they?

This proves that you cannot stop a virus by shutting borders. I accept that you can slow down the number of clusters, but this idea of keeping it out is (and always has been) nonsense.
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37 cases versus opening the floodgates to the Delta variant to try to get a trade deal with India.

Science has smashed ideology time and time again throughout this pandemic. Yes the peole on here who advocated a herd immunity strategy and / or who try to undermine the Countries who’ve managed the pandemic well still try to justify their position. Likewise, the last two (post wave) reopening of our economy saw us fall on our arses.

Btw, I’m for the ending restrictions as soon as we can be fairly confident to do so. Hopefully, the last restrictions will end on the 19th July.
 
Marvin said:
I had a quick look at that paper and what stood out to me was: "CovidSim contains over 900 input parameters".
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That for me is a model killer. If you can't model something with less than 10 variables then throwing 900 at it screams of overfitting to the extreme. Not only will your model be slow to react but your predictions will be worthless as well
 
BlueAnorak said:
This time round, on average around 7% lower than the "optimistic" model. Still that's better than the 17% or so they were wrong by against the "optimistic" model against the Alpha variant.
They only undershot on the AZ 1 dose for hospitalisation figure.
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which model are you looking at? there were 3 of them?
 
grunge said:
which model are you looking at? there were 3 of them?
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1624436222893.png

Well there was this crap one from Warwick. They're currently 35% out from their best guess and that's going to get worse and worse over the next few days. I reckon they'll be over 60% off when the 21st June hospitalisation numbers are released. They predicted 530 admission on the 21st, my model said 280 I reckon it's going actually be sub 250 at this rate.
 
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BerkshireBlue said:
That for me is a model killer. If you can't model something with less than 10 variables then throwing 900 at it screams of overfitting to the extreme. Not only will your model be slow to react but your predictions will be worthless as well
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Yep, the scope for cascading errors with 900 variables is obscene. Unless a lot of those are properly encapsulated out into sub classes/coroutines

example: if the model has a ( random guess from top of my head ) social distancing routine. that provides a few variables that feeds into the model but could be a whole sub routine to create that variable that needs 50/60 variables in its own right to run the code that calculates the single output,
 
BerkshireBlue said:
View attachment 19894

Well there was this crap one from Warwick. They're current 35% out from their best guess and that's going to get worse and worse over the next few days. I reckon they'll be over 60% off when the 21st June hospitalisation numbers are released. They predicted 530 admission on the 21st, my model said 280 I reckon it's going actually be sub 250 at this rate.
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Ta, I was looking at this one.

 
RobMCFC said:
Australia have strict quarantine for 14 days, don’t they?

This proves that you cannot stop a virus by shutting borders. I accept that you can slow down the number of clusters, but this idea of keeping it out is (and always has been) nonsense.
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It's absolutely crazy, Australia and NZ are targeting "zero covid", will never ever happen. Some of the clowns in charge here also are seeking this but it is unrealistic and pointless.
 
RobMCFC said:
Australia have strict quarantine for 14 days, don’t they?

This proves that you cannot stop a virus by shutting borders. I accept that you can slow down the number of clusters, but this idea of keeping it out is (and always has been) nonsense.
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Yes but with the new mRNA and Vector vaccines you can now lock down your borders to give yourself time to develop a vaccine and deploy it to limit serious illness and death.
 
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grunge said:
which model are you looking at? there were 3 of them?
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Warwick and LSHTM.
It gobsmacked me that the press has not actually compared these models to the actual data in the PHE report.
Should I have time this month, I will knock up a spreadsheet.
I really shouldn't be gobsmacked, our press across the board is absilutely useless. All they could be bothered to do was knock up a few stories about the actual vaccine data being better than the reports.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Yes but with the new mRNA and Vector vaccines you can now lock down your borders to give yourself time to develop a vaccine and deploy it to limit serious illness and death.
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Except they haven't done that effectively down there. My brother and his family live in Aus and they are exasperated by the slow pace of vaccine roll-out there. And all the while they risk an outbreak that undoes everything before they've got their vaccine protection in place.
 
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