Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Lockdown clearly over in Didsbury. No masks, nobody social distancing, runners for some reason, running through the main high street. Cafe society is back, albeit carrying your cup as an accessory or as if you work at Google.
More important things to worry about, such as your place in the queue for the latest patisserie. (Seriously. Like the Harrods sale.)
Can't wait to move from this pretentious, hypocritical place asap.
Was a nice suburb, now a parody of itself.
Makes me piss the locals call it Didsbury "village" it's a suburb of Manchester not a village which is usually defined as being in a "rural" setting.
 
marvin you keep going on about mutation. Of course there is potential. What do we do wait for the entire world to be vaccinated? Once we have vaccinated the over 50s we quite simply have to open up. Speaking to a Cooper again this week, all he is dealing with is suicides and domestics. People are really starting to struggle.
Should stick to barrels;-)
 
I was thinking about a discussion that Chucrhlawton blue was raising yesterday. People were looking at the graphs and at the figures and noticing decreasing falls and worrying about that. It dawned on me this morning that the epidemic can decline at a constant rate and yet produce a flattening curve.

In other words if I start with 1 milllion virus particles and it declines by half in a week then:

Week 0: 1,000,000
Week 1: 500,000
Week 2: 250,000
Week 3: 125,000

And graph virus numbers over time and we get a curve not a straight line.

If you plot this on log axis then you get a straight line.

Ourworldindata, for instance, gives you the option.

You can clearly see the decline is exponential as the line is roughly straight.


Screenshot_20210221-131021_Chrome.jpg
 
Lockdown clearly over in Didsbury. No masks, nobody social distancing, runners for some reason, running through the main high street. Cafe society is back, albeit carrying your cup as an accessory or as if you work at Google.
More important things to worry about, such as your place in the queue for the latest patisserie. (Seriously. Like the Harrods sale.)
Can't wait to move from this pretentious, hypocritical place asap.
Was a nice suburb, now a parody of itself.
I cycled through yesterday and was staggered by the queues for the cafes, patisseries etc. Couldn’t get through the place fast enough.
 

Very interesting and fits what we see in the day to day data.

The most interesting of all is that we are falling faster than Israel.

Yet young compliance with lockdown is lower in Israel than here so this blurs the difference in the fall in cases and patients caused by either lockdown or vaccination.

As we are behind Israel in vaccination impact that potentially bodes really well for where we are heading.

The one thing we have to know is if it is the Pfizer vaccine impact in Israel or if having that and AZ in the UK alters the dynamics in any way. Though I think we hedged bets by accident or design by offering the Pfizer most to the very vulnerable. And over 75s.
 
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