Coronavirus (2021) thread

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BlueAnorak said:
The actual answer to that question is probably:
1. When sufficient over 45s have been double vaccinated for 3 weeks. and
2. When hospitalisations are proven not to overwhelm the NHS.
The mortality risk at that point will be lower than for non flu circulating viruses that trigger pneumonia in older folks.
The data is looking rather good at the moment for July 19th lifting.
Cases are irrelevant. Only serious illness and deaths matter.
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Indeed, the reality is we really do need as many children as possible to catch it, as they would be very vulnerable to a variant that causes more serious illness.
 
FWIW, I see New Zealand still haven’t had a case of Covid being caught in the community since 28th February. They are allowing some international travel because their men’s cricket team became World Champions (in Southampton) yesterday.

The Kiwis are remaining vigilant and keeping an eye on the new Covid cases in Oz.
 
Is there any data avaikable on number of comorbidities with covid related fatalities? I read somewhere the average covid death in the US has 4. Thats a lot of serious health problems.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
FWIW, I see New Zealand still haven’t had a case of Covid being caught in the community since 28th February. They are allowing some international travel because their men’s cricket team became World Champions (in Southampton) yesterday.

The Kiwis are remaining vigilant and keeping an eye on the new Covid cases in Oz.
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Yeah but they’re a island so can’t really compare ;-)
 
feelymcfeel said:
Is there any data avaikable on number of comorbidities with covid related fatalities? I read somewhere the average covid death in the US has 4. Thats a lot of serious health problems.
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not on the actual number of comorbidities but there is data on the presence of one and the detail of it

see the weekly download file in this link

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations
www.england.nhs.uk www.england.nhs.uk
 
Tim of the Oak said:
FWIW, I see New Zealand still haven’t had a case of Covid being caught in the community since 28th February. They are allowing some international travel because their men’s cricket team became World Champions (in Southampton) yesterday.

The Kiwis are remaining vigilant and keeping an eye on the new Covid cases in Oz.
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At some stage they are going to have to open up as you can't have closed borders forever (unless you are North Korea). Presumably after they have vaccinated the whole population but, as vaccinations are not 100% effective, they will start to have cases even if only at a low and potentially acceptable (elsewhere at any rate) level. I wonder if they are prepared for that?
 
Gremlin said:
At some stage they are going to have to open up as you can't have closed borders forever (unless you are North Korea). Presumably after they have vaccinated the whole population but, as vaccinations are not 100% effective, they will start to have cases even if only at a low and potentially acceptable (elsewhere at any rate) level. I wonder if they are prepared for that?
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it will be interesting to see the contrast in such a well shielded population trying to open up.
 
Kippax1973 said:
Here's what I don't get right,, your far far far more likely to die from smoking or get seriously ill through smoking than covid,
This is coming from a 20 a day man,, I know stupid twat I am.
But here's the thing if the governments of the world are so hell bent on saving lives all of a sudden, why do they simply not ban cigarettes and you could probably say alcohol,
That would save millions of lives world wide on a yearly basis, I don't get it.
It's almost like nothing bad exists anymore other than covid...... Anyway love some one to explain,, I think I know the reasons for not banning cigarettes, as I think most do,or alcohol come to that, but as I said if the world has become hell bent on saving the worlds population as they'd have you believe ,
Then surely they would start with those 2 "evils",, no... Or am I missing something???
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The people who suffer ill health and die from smoking or alcohol-related illnesses don't all happen at once, it is spread out across the year at a level the NHS was able to deal with. the problem with Covid (or any other infectious disease) is that it comes in waves due to exponential infection growth so massive amounts of people need to be hospitalised at once, overwhelming the system.
 
Gremlin said:
At some stage they are going to have to open up as you can't have closed borders forever (unless you are North Korea). Presumably after they have vaccinated the whole population but, as vaccinations are not 100% effective, they will start to have cases even if only at a low and potentially acceptable (elsewhere at any rate) level. I wonder if they are prepared for that?
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The Wuhan virus was wiped out. Then the alpha variant. But it keeps spinning off new strains.

The Delta variant is doomed too. Certainly in the UK but the obvious concern is what it is going to spawn as it goes global. Hopefully nothing serious but if it does then we need our own vaccine variants, then we can put this behind us.

For a year we thought it was the Wuhan virus vs herd immunity, and we slowly tracked rising levels of immunity and antibodies, and the prospect of vaccines against the Wuhan virus. And then it dawned on us that it was shape shifter.
 
Gremlin said:
At some stage they are going to have to open up as you can't have closed borders forever (unless you are North Korea). Presumably after they have vaccinated the whole population but, as vaccinations are not 100% effective, they will start to have cases even if only at a low and potentially acceptable (elsewhere at any rate) level. I wonder if they are prepared for that?
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Why don’t people on here compare Israel with North Korea. There are a lot more similarities compared to New Zealand.

By opening up do you mean looking for international tourists? There’s been tens of thousands of people at music festivals and sporting events every weekend for the last year, in New Zealand.

Btw, I’m not making a comparison with the U.K. I’m just pointing out that you can open up domestically and have an element of international travel when Countries tackle the virus appropriately. That’s why I highlighted the Kiwis becoming world champions in Southampton.
 
Gremlin said:
My mistake - seems it was only developing countries they were selling it to at cost price:

www.theguardian.com

Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine to be sold to developing countries at cost price

Jab that is part of global initiative to distribute doses will remain at low price ‘in perpetuity’
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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*During* the pandemic, all AZ supply is at cost price (it's way cheaper than Pfizer, like 4x cheaper or something)

*After* the pandemic they can increase the price.

Definition of the end of the pandemic may be debatable.
 
Wales data:

Unfortunately it is going where the rest is going.

0 deaths - was 0 last week

438 cases - was 140 last week

2.8% positivity - was 1.2% last week

I do not need to tell you this is quite a big increase.

This is what happens when you do not stop people coming in like Nicola Sturgeon tried but Drakeford realised was impossible.

Neither is right or wrong. We are just beyond the point where we now can stop this variant ripping through the UK.

We can only hope it does not create enough cases to - even with a happily much smaller percentage getting really sick - overwhelm the NHS.

If this were pre vaccine we would 100% be in full national lockdown again now. The vaccine that internet warrriors think is some kind of mind control mechanism or should have spent two years in thorough testing to be 101% sure it has no issues is the only reason they have any chance of regaining some kind of normal life any time soon. It is mitigating the impact enough to hopefully stop the worst from happening.
 
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Theo555 said:
Had my first jab 2 months ago - I'm 47

Just been to Leeds to visit mates at the weekend and now just tested positive for covid

Feel like shit - hot and cold - headache - sore throat
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There's always a chance of getting Covid, more so after one jab rather than two. However, having had the jab, you are much less likely to be as ill as you would have been had you not been vaccinated.

Hopefully, that's as bad as things get for you.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
FWIW, I see New Zealand still haven’t had a case of Covid being caught in the community since 28th February. They are allowing some international travel because their men’s cricket team became World Champions (in Southampton) yesterday.

The Kiwis are remaining vigilant and keeping an eye on the new Covid cases in Oz.
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They are indeed but Covid will likely make it's way into their country in a significant way some time in the future. I guess it depends on how many are vaccinated by the time they open their borders. I was reading an article the other day about the Australian government being concerned that take up of the vaccine may not be as high as they want as many have not been ill themselves or witnessed it's impact on their families and communities. Maybe this could happen in other countries such as NZ.
 
Del_Bosque said:


looking good
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Do I read that as saying almost ten times as many people are testing positive unvaccinated v those double vaccinated. And about 5 times more than those single vaccinated?

If so that looks pretty good. And why we can get out of this mess in coming weeks.
 
British grand prix : Silverstone to have capacity crowd for July race. 18th July Any blues going
 
BlueHammer85 said:
amazing how we can go from 16,000+ new cases to announce the next day there will be 160,000 capacity for Silverstone and all restrictions all set to be lifted July 19th.

there must be little concern about these high case numbers

what a job the vaccine is doing
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19 July is definitely on then..might dig out my old raving shoes
 
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