Coronavirus (2021) thread

[splinter]

434,000 jabbed latest 24 hrs..84.1% of population first jab, 61.6% second. Jabbing our way to freedom

 

[Healdplace]

I dont know why people think I have any power in this. I just report the data provided and expained why I still report all those things. Me stopping doing so will chamge nothing. And experts will rightly decide what we still need to be told.

What the government choose to do regardung opening up will have nothing to do with when or if they stop reporting how many cases happen. As that number will tell us when we are out of this wave. As we will be in a few weeks.

So they are going nowhere until then.

At some point when the medical authorities decide that even if the pandemic is not over we are in the right place to fully open up and stop having regular briefings or the need for a Gov UK data base reporting daily that will be off the back of the best scientific minds in the country saying so.

Then this thread will no doubt end.

Until then I will report what there is to report and anyone can choose to read or not read all or any of it.

 

[ctwrd]

What's crucial is the development of variants, and that depends in part on the number of cases.

You can either have normal life and rising cases or not normal life and cases controlled.
You can’t have normal life and controlled cases.

 

[Toney’s bookie]

What's crucial is the development of variants, and that depends in part on the number of cases.

Some quotes from Cath Green (one of the Oxford vaccine creators)

By early 2021 we knew of three variants of concern – Kent, South African and Brazilian. And by early February, we had good evidence that the vaccine still worked against the Kent variant, so we focused on the other two.

The signs were good that our vaccine would still prevent death and severe disease, but it looked like they were unlikely to do as well in preventing mild and asymptomatic cases. Later on, of course, we had to think about the Delta variant, which was even more transmissible than the Kent variant.

One day we might be able to design one vaccine that works well against multiple variants (not forgetting that the existing vaccines do, to some extent, still work against them all). We even might be able to design pre-emptive vaccines against variants that we have not yet seen. None of these issues feel insurmountable.

The good news is that we also think it is unlikely that the virus can mutate in a way that keeps it functioning but makes our vaccine completely ineffective.

That's because a change in the spike protein – which allows the coronavirus to enter and infect human cells – that is radical enough to make our vaccine completely ineffective would also, almost certainly, be so extreme as to make the virus non-functional.

The whole 'vaccine escaping variant' doomsday scenario doesn't seem to tally with this. Yes, they may be less effective for certain characteristics but it may be the messaging was designed to achieve an aim. After all, we all know variants will never stop so the idea we must lock up to hide from variants mates no long term sense if you ever want to get back to normal.

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

Discussed here (although some of his views may make some people's heads explode ha). Will be interesting to see if his prediction ends up being correct when it all comes out in the wash

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/covid-why-terminology-really-matters/

I really think the information posted on this forum and by Dr Campbell on Youtube has been vastly superior to most content in the broadcast and print media where a lot of coverage has just been hysterical. The use of terminology in the right context is everything. With a serious story like Covid you don't need to hype it up. All most people want is the facts.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

The Guardian are reporting that Sajid Javid will announce tomorrow that all restrictions will be lifted on July 19th.

 

[Marvin]

Some quotes from Cath Green (one of the Oxford vaccine creators)



The whole 'vaccine escaping variant' doomsday scenario doesn't seem to tally with this. Yes, they may be less effective for certain characteristics but it may be the messaging was designed to achieve an aim. After all, we all know variants will never stop so the idea we must lock up to hide from variants mates no long term sense if you ever want to get back to normal.

The whole course of the epidemic is being driven now by virus evolution. The WT was wiped out. The alpha variant represents about 1% of sequenced cases in the UK.

I don't think there will be a doomsday scenario either because the vaccines will be upgraded but whatever your politics, or whatever angle you take on lockdown and social control, there is a link between variants and the replication rate.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago

EVERYWHERE DOWN DUE TO THE MISSING DATA SO THESE NUMBERS ARE ATYPICAL AND WILL SEE LATER ONES NEXT WEEK BE HIGHER ON ONE OR MORE DAYS TO COMPENSATE PRESUMABLY


SOUTH


East DOWN 50 to 692 V 441

London DOWN 500 to 1493 V 886 - almost doubling here even with the missing data

South East DOWN 268 to 1219 V 818

South West DOWN 230 to 799 V 759






MIDLANDS



East DOWN 144 to 744 V 434

West DOWN 289 to 1189 V 639 - a big jump up in the Midlands








NORTH



North East DOWN 355 to 1062 V 641


Yorkshire DOWN 767 to 1229 V 937- - Big fall here today - or lot of missing data.But not the biggest fall.......



AND

NORTH WEST DOWN 930 to 2763 V 2107 - looks like a lot of missing cases here sadly



Past weeks NW numbers are 2107 - 2441 - 2790 - 3620 - 3318 - 3440 - 3693 - 2763

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 2134 -2262 - 2017 - 2157 - 2858 - 2754 - 2538 - 2107

GM numbers in past week 974 - 1086 - 1248 - 1606 - 1541 - 1572 - 1579 - 1280

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

You’ve still better going off advice on here tbf ;-)

Yep. Better than Google is Bluegle.

 

[True_Blue69]

We can and must ignore cases.

unless we do not wish to return to normal. Then let’s concern ourselves with cases.

That’s what they are doing in Singapore of all places. No longer reporting on daily cases and it will be treated like any other endemic disease. They have acknowledged that zero covid will never happen and are moving on with life. If only our politicians were that bold.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

I really think the information posted on this forum and by Dr Campbell on Youtube has been vastly superior to most content in the broadcast and print media where a lot of coverage has just been hysterical. The use of terminology in the right context is everything. With a serious story like Covid you don't need to hype it up. All most people want is the facts.

Do you really think people should get their info during a pandemic from a football forum and a bloke who makes youtube videos?

 

[Healdplace]

Full GM details:


Total cases 1280 - DOWN 309 on Yesterday - from NW fall of 933.

This is well below the 50% par of around 466 - which is not good. Would infer GM is starting to pan up a bit again which Zoe numbers have hinted in past few days. Let us hope it is just an anomaly of the data glitch.

Wk to wk UP 306 when the NW rose by 656. So GM is under the 50% of 328.

So these numbers as they stand do not convey a very good day in GM county though not a terrible one. Unless the under reporting is focused elsewhere in the NW.And these numbers are more right than elsewhere. As they might be.


BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 94 / DOWN 34 / UP 18

BURY 103 / UP 11 / UP 8

MANCHESTER 307 / DOWN 76 / UP 46

OLDHAM 102 / DOWN 29/ UP 61

ROCHDALE 121 / UP 5 / UP 42

SALFORD 125 / DOWN 42 / UP 11

STOCKPORT 72 / DOWN 36 / UP 10

TAMESIDE 83 / DOWN 44 / UP 36

TRAFFORD 105 / UP 3 / UP 22

WIGAN 168 / DOWN 67 / UP 52


Even with the reduction every borough UP week to week for second day running.

But Wigan is not doing well up week to week. Oldham also and Manchester jut hints of a plateau.

Stockport clearly had the best day today - lowest score and ate off another huge chunk from Trafford's lead in the overall Pop Score race. 19 in one go! It was 200 behind two weeks ago. Now just 61.

But even Stockport saw its pop score inch up week to week.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Got a call from kids after school club saying she has to self isolate due to a member of staff testing positive. However on the day she was there, the kids were outside and other than drop her bag inside and pick it up when going, she wasn’t indoors at all. She was there for 40 mins of which 39 were outside. She had no contact with the staff member. Does that seem a bit OTT? We have lateral flow tested her x 3 last 3 days and all negative but she has to isolate until next Sat! Seems a bit harsh to me.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Bury 664, Tameside 688, Stockport 702, Rochdale 717, Trafford 735 , Oldham 766 , Bolton 780 , Salford 1089 . Wigan 1308, Manchester 2473.



Manchester, Salford and Wigan all over 4 figures weekly.

Well ahead of the other 7 who are bunched together more closely.

Only 2 boroughs below 700 - as in 100 cases a day average - and they are not by much.

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Got a call from kids after school club saying she has to self isolate due to a member of staff testing positive. However on the day she was there, the kids were outside and other than drop her bag inside and pick it up when going, she wasn’t indoors at all. She was there for 40 mins of which 39 were outside. She had no contact with the staff member. Does that seem a bit OTT? We have lateral flow tested her x 3 last 3 days and all negative but she has to isolate until next Sat! Seems a bit harsh to me.

Total lunacy

 

[True_Blue69]

Got a call from kids after school club saying she has to self isolate due to a member of staff testing positive. However on the day she was there, the kids were outside and other than drop her bag inside and pick it up when going, she wasn’t indoors at all. She was there for 40 mins of which 39 were outside. She had no contact with the staff member. Does that seem a bit OTT? We have lateral flow tested her x 3 last 3 days and all negative but she has to isolate until next Sat! Seems a bit harsh to me.

From reading a few messages back, you don’t actually need to it’s just advisory.

 

[Summerbuzz]

You can either have normal life and rising cases or not normal life and cases controlled.
You can’t have normal life and controlled cases.

Very obviously a false dichotomy.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

From reading a few messages back, you don’t actually need to it’s just advisory.

This was a phone call from the LEA so I assume that means it’s compulsory. Even her school think it’s lunacy. It’s a right pain though as my wife is a Teacher in a different school so needs to go in, meaning I have had to change my diary and will need to work from home. Fortunately my daughter is 10 and doesn’t need supervising with school work but I guess for the parent of a 5/6 year old, it’s a nightmare.

 

[ctwrd]

Got a call from kids after school club saying she has to self isolate due to a member of staff testing positive. However on the day she was there, the kids were outside and other than drop her bag inside and pick it up when going, she wasn’t indoors at all. She was there for 40 mins of which 39 were outside. She had no contact with the staff member. Does that seem a bit OTT? We have lateral flow tested her x 3 last 3 days and all negative but she has to isolate until next Sat! Seems a bit harsh to me.

This is the lunacy.
See Gilmore nonsense from this week for more evidence.
Two England players deemed close contacts but no Scotland players.

 

[wolfie1988]

What's crucial is the development of variants, and that depends in part on the number of cases.

@Ric you getting commission for the amount of times Marvin mentions variants?