Coronavirus (2021) thread

[RandomJ]

I hope this goes as planned as I just know the population will not accept a further lock down. This is for all the chips so get people vaccinated and lets hope this is the beginning of the end of this nightmare.

 

[meltonblue]

Thank you.

Maybe I'm not thinking straight, but it seems bizarre then that this sort of information is released and then there's government statements with dates for ending all of this, I'd have thought we're better waiting to know that things are ok on the vaccine front first.

I’d detach the two, the government will be using different data to justify the position they’re taking.

In an ideal world, we’d have kept to the original three weeks between doses. Due to the situation we were in though, they went with the delay and the potential loss of efficacy in that timeframe will be baked into their numbers.

The great thing is even with that drop, it still has a really good rate.

Edit: just to add, that’s also why comparing vaccine rollout numbers like for like isn’t really a comparable at the mo

 

[Blu3m00n91]

All restrictions gone by 21st June

Might actually go to the community shield!

I’ll be there

 

[denislawsbackheel]

So pupils back in schools on the 8th.

But am I right in thinking that each one will be tested at least twice on their return?

If so, in a larger comp of, say, 1000, that might entail something like 400 tests a day... can schools manage that?

And what you do with the presumably long queues of kids waiting for the test who might be infectious ?

Or if the tests are performed at home, how will schools know that the parents did their bit? Would a scan of a test result showing the number be sufficient?

And what reassurances can be given to unvaccinated staff who may possibly be at risk of long COVID or something worse?

Not having a go here. Just wondering whether anyone has thought about these potential logistical difficulties?

I have considered them.
It’s an unworkable fudge.
It will mean a staggered return from March 8th.
It is completely reliant on parents honestly and competently a£ministering home tests.
Staff are being given no reassurances.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Not staggering the return of schools is a massive mistake. One that will stop the following steps actually becoming a reality. We need positive news, but it has to be realistic. This is on a par with the ‘5 days of Xmas’ and we know how that played out.

Secondary schools can stagger return in the first week at their discretion.
They will have to.

 

[SiMCFC]

Has Boris made any mention of face nappy policy? How much longer are people going to have to wear these ridiculous things?

Hopefully forever in shops, it's absolute bliss not having the great unwashed coughing all over me when I go shopping tbh.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

The data table appears to show efficacy drop for Pfizer post week 4. Note that there is no data for AZ post week four.

*But* numbers are very small, and I've seen a comment (can't locate it, sorry) that it was some artefact of the analysis.

I'd say not an immediate concern, but one to watch.

Full report

https://www.ed.ac.uk/files/atoms/files/scotland_firstvaccinedata_preprint.pdf

Excerpt of the Pfizer data by week - the 38% is week one, 64% is week 6. Note the huge confidence intervals.

View attachment 11122

Thank you. Yeah - that's certainly worth watching. If that's the sort of reduction by week 6, you can't imagine another 6 weeks will do much good. Potentially massive detriment to those who've received 1st dose of Pfizer and the JCVI decision to run with the delayed dose. I'll heed the advice of you and MB for now and not become too concerned, but processing this sort of info and not being concerned is probably what separates those with some sort of scientific knowledge and the layman like myself!

 

[N1985]

Hopefully forever in shops, it's absolute bliss not having the great unwashed coughing all over me when I go shopping tbh.

Very true. Maskless neanderthals coughing and breathing 6 inches from your feet. I'd happily see the 2m and mask rule brought into shopping forever.

 

[ZenHalfTimeCrock]

I have considered them.
It’s an unworkable fudge.
It will mean a staggered return from March 8th.
It is completely reliant on parents honestly and competently a£ministering home tests.
Staff are being given no reassurances.

That’s what I suspected. Really glad that I walked away from teaching just before all this started.

It will also be interesting to see what those who are plugged into the actual science (Chris Whitty? Devi Sridhar?) as opposed to the politics have to say about the school return aspect.

Maybe they will be reassuring. Or maybe not.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Thank you. Yeah - that's certainly worth watching. If that's the sort of reduction by week 6, you can't imagine another 6 weeks will do much good. Potentially massive detriment to those who've received 1st dose of Pfizer and the JCVI decision to run with the delayed dose. I'll heed the advice of you and MB for now and not become too concerned, but processing this sort of info and not being concerned is probably what separates those with some sort of scientific knowledge and the layman like myself!

In general, I would caution over-reacting to one piece of data.

Even if they turn out to be confirmed once we have more data at those midpoints, the JCVI decision was still arguably right and will save many lives as an awful lot of people right now are protected to a large degree who would otherwise not be protected at all.

And there's the opposite data on the AZ vaccine that the second dose is more effective if given later; that could yet apply to Pfizer too.

Plus second doses will be starting in earnest in a couple of weeks time (3 months from first vaccination is 8th March).

Far too early to form conclusions IMO, and the worst case scenario isn't too bad compared to where the rest of the world are at.