Coronavirus (2021) thread

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NorthamptonBlue said:
If it helps at all, I’ve had two doctors explain the situation just yesterday. At some stage, we have to get back to ‘normal’. If we wait for the vaccination rollout to complete, then we would reopen about the end of October, just in time for the winter flu season. Opening earlier, whilst imperfect, at least sees the schools on holiday and events mostly moving outdoors. According to them, it is either open up now or wait until next year. Waiting until next year, however, assumes that people would obey the rules. I’ve seen nothing to suggest that people are prepared to do so as everybody is so fed up.

I guess life just isn’t perfect.
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Spot on.
 
BlueAnorak said:
They are backing him because the numbers for cases later in the Autumn/Winter will be a lot higher than if they happen in the summer.
We have to have to get to a point where our immune systems face Covid variants in a similar way that we are able to tolerate flu.
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I agree on the Summer v Autumn strategy as I said yesterday it is the key reason this is happening and why it appears counter intuitive but really isn't. It is a risk - though - nonetheless.

But the truth is those anti vaxxers who pop up are really why this risk is happening, As they can see that we are nearing saturation point for vaccination and as Blue Anorak explained well above we are not at herd immunity,

The sad truth is that those who chose not to seek it through vaccines are likely to face it through becoming infected. Now is the better time for that to happen than three or four months from now. But not without cost - both to that group and those around them.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Looking for a scapegoat i think.
I doubt NZ will ever be able to open up without a massive epidemic.
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Plausible I guess. The headline certainly grabs attention, just wondering if the science behind this makes it more likely than not or a 50/50 type situation of this happening. What's your thoughts?

Gaylord du Bois said:
Another attention junkie.
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Peter Jukes or the evolutionary virologist he's quoted?
 
UK HOSPITAL DATA

Not really able to do this correctly until Wednesday as N Ireland data will not resume until then,

Scotland is up to date but Wales a few days old.

But N Ireland has 60 patients and 0 ventilators at last count (V 37 patients and 1 ventilated last week)

Scotland as of today 506 patients and 41 ventilators (V 346 patients and 32 ventilators last week)

Wales 67 patients and 8 ventilated (V 60 patients and 8 ventilators last week)


So 633 patients v 443 last week & 49 ventilated v 41 last week




AND SO THE UK TOTAL AS BEST WE CAN CALCULATE TODAY IS: 3603 patients (was 2441 last week) Up not much under 50% in the week,

And Ventilators 527 (was 394 last week) - a slightly smaller increase
 
Healdplace said:
I agree on the Summer v Autumn strategy as I said yesterday it is the key reason this is happening and why it appears counter intuitive but really isn't. It is a risk - though - nonetheless.

But the truth is those anti vaxxers who pop up are really why this risk is happening, As they can see that we are nearing saturation point for vaccination and as Blue Anorak explained well above we are not at herd immunity,

The sad truth is that those who chose not to seek it through vaccines are likely to face it through becoming infected. Now is the better time for that to happen than three or four months from now. But not without cost - both to that group and those around them.
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Yes it is a risk but the risk of new variants is mitigated by the fact they WILL occur in Indonesia, Tunisia and other plague ridden areas where vaccination numbers are small
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
Plausible I guess. The headline certainly grabs attention, just wondering if the science behind this makes it more likely than not or a 50/50 type situation of this happening. What's your thoughts?



Peter Jukes or the evolutionary virologist he's quoted?
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Both. Do they really think the rest of the world is going to standstill whilst they continue to play with 11 men behind the ball?
Cheeky fuckers.
 
Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago



SOUTH


East UP 622 to 2833 V 2285 - big rise

London DOWN 75 to 4126 V 3633

South East UP 133 to 4127 V 3102 - another big rise here in the south closing in on North West numbers

South West DOWN 137 to 2816 V 1816 - up exactly 1000 wk to wk in this small region,








MIDLANDS



East UP 265 to 2492 V 1875

West UP 617 to 3637 V 2261 - big rises in the Midlands as they climb up to meet the NW.








NORTH



North East UP 401 to 3413 V 2842 - going up and up in another supposedly small region. Remenber it had less than 100 every day for weeks about 5 weeks ago. That is how fast Delta can spike. Up by 50 times since early/mid June! South West not far off the same,




Yorkshire UP 270 to 3902 V 2970


NE & YORKSHIRE Combines these two for the hospital data and this is clearly now the biggest area with 7315 cases - way over the North West has reached to date.


AND



NORTH WEST UP 162 to 4931 V 3960 - Still the highest region (BUT see above ref NE & Yorkshire)

A modest rise compared to others.






Past weeks NW numbers are 3960 - 4950 - 5203 - 6487 - 4758 - 4231 - 4769 - 4931

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 3870 - 4856 - 4366 - 5033 - 3997 - 3989 - 3945 - 3960




GM numbers in past week 1605 - 2031- 2224 - 2717 - 2025 - 1770 - 2043 - 2034

Four of these numbers separated by just 18 is suggesting a plateau.


Total in GM from the NW cases Total - 41.2% - DOWN from 41.8% yesterday and from 42.5% a week ago,
 
117 M34 said:
I have a 1 week old baby.
Wife's mum hasn't seen baby yet as she has not been jabbed and won't do a covid test (has mental health issues) and wife isn't keen on her seeing her due to covid risk. We are all going to be at a christening together though in about a month so will all be in the same room regardless.

Would you let the grandparent see the child now?
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Depends. Does grandma go anywhere? If she never leaves the house or is quite isolated, then I’d let her see the baby now.
 
Full GM details


Total cases 2034 - DOWN 9 on Yesterday - from NW rise of 162

Self evidently if you fall - even by 9 - when the region rises that is good news!


Wk to wk UP 429 when the NW ROSE by 970 - again little over the 42% expected 408

Basically an OK day.



BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 145 / UP 2 / UP 43

BURY 109 / DOWN 32 / UP 40

MANCHESTER 401 / UP 15 / UP 35

OLDHAM 231 / UP 15 / UP 98

ROCHDALE 220 / UP 20 / UP 80

SALFORD 156 / DOWN 29 / UP 29

STOCKPORT 220 / UP 25 / UP 86

TAMESIDE 146 / DOWN 8 / UP 13

TRAFFORD 145 / DOWN 7 / DOWN 18

WIGAN 261 / DOWN 10 / UP 23



Bury best again. Pulling clear of the others. I wonder how?

Trafford down again both day to day and week to week whist Stockport had its worst day in months and again up big both day to day and week to week. As was Oldham and Rochdale.

Trafford actually gained 14 Pop Score points back from SK as a result, Second day running. The fightback begins!
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Bury 826, Bolton 1028, Tameside 1109, Trafford 1273, Stockport 1330 , Rochdale 1457 , Salford 1465, Oldham 1615, Wigan 1868 , Manchester 2873



Bury now alone under four figures and it was up too. Stockport's bad day saw Trafford overtake it after a few much better days.
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
Both. Do they really think the rest of the world is going to standstill whilst they continue to play with 11 men behind the ball?
Cheeky fuckers.
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I agree with your point, or at least understand where you're coming from - but I suppose that doesn't necessarilly make his or the virologist point incorrect though? As in, they don't get to dictate policy, but there might be truth to what they're saying?
 
ayrshire_blue said:
I agree with your point, or at least understand where you're coming from - but I suppose that doesn't necessarilly make his or the virologist point incorrect though? As in, they don't get to dictate policy, but there might be truth to what they're saying?
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Yes indeed. They only have to consider things from an epidemiological pov as that's their area whereas the politicians have to consider many other factors when making these decisions.
 
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