Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Europe also slowing down in terms of vaccination rates. I think at last everyone is largely in agreement now, just a litle dispute on how quickly the controls are lifted. I don't actually understand why it makes such a big difference to hospitalisations and deaths but the models apparently suggest it does. Perhaps its because if you lift restrictions slowly you still have benefit from ongoing vaccination/infection, whereas if you do it one big bang, there's less opportunity for immunity to resist infection?

What's left for me is progress on new vaccines. I do hope that when we do the boosters we use up to date vaccinaes or we are going to get awfully tired with one vaccination after another. It's unlikely this is going to stop evolving so I think PHE would be wise to give max possible consideration to vaccinating with latest vaccines. I do accept though that they must have good reasons to do whatever they decide. As long as the whole thing is controlled by science and not the private profits of pharmaceutical companies, that's fine.
I think Marv, from the article you posted the other day, the key is that new vaccines need to go through clinical trials again so it’s not necessarily the easy option. You can’t just update the current ones. Memory serves me right Pfizer were looking to enter the trials with their updated vaccine in August but not sure how long it takes to get approval or whether it’s the same 6 months or so as previous.
 
New cases in the Netherlands down from 8,502 yesterday to 7,888, but hospitalisations up from 7 yesterday to 31. The R number was calculated to be 2.17 at the end of June, but it’s presumed to be even higher now.
 
I think Marv, from the article you posted the other day, the key is that new vaccines need to go through clinical trials again so it’s not necessarily the easy option. You can’t just update the current ones. Memory serves me right Pfizer were looking to enter the trials with their updated vaccine in August but not sure how long it takes to get approval or whether it’s the same 6 months or so as previous.
There's a Cov-boost trial underway I believe but I think it's largely using pre-existing vaccines. Moderna and GSK have their own trials that are underway based on SA variant. I think you are right trials are needed but I thought if a pre-existing vaccine had been distributed that they would be Phase I/II trials and not the very lengthy trials. We'll see.

Edit: I thought the Gods were smiling on me for a moment....

Just received an invite to Astrazeneca Beta Variant Booster trial. I tried to join it but they are over-subscribed.

Dear Mr Hagler,

You have received this email because you previously registered with the NHS COVID-19 Vaccine Research Registry.

Volunteers are needed to join a local COVID-19 clinical study researching vaccines against a COVID-19 virus variant.

Although approved COVID-19 vaccines are now available, it is not known how well these vaccines will work against mutated or ‘variant’ forms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Study AZD2816 is evaluating an investigational vaccine that has been designed specifically against the Beta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which first emerged in South Africa. The study is also evaluating the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine against the Beta variant. The vaccines in this study are being tested as a booster in people who have previously had a COVID-19 vaccine.

You may be able to participate in this study if you:

  • are 30 years of age or older
and

  • have received 2 doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca, Pfizer-BioNTech, or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine.

Additional requirements may determine final eligibility.
 
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That sounds familiar. I was just suggesting that it could peak earlier in the North West. It's unlikely to proceed uniformly across the UK. I posted the Bolton and London cases up above somewhere and you can see quite a gap in time between the onset of the waves. I am expecting it to peak in Gtr Manchester before it peaks nationally but I haven't really got anything more to say than that. All guesswork.
All the data on GM and NW I have been posting daily for weeks here shows that GM was a MUCH bigger factor at the start of this wave in the NW region numbers and has fallen a lot since.

From around 75% of the cases at one stage to 42% now.

It has flattened off aound here as this is about its base number wave or not gven population.

There is no question this wave is not going to be all in and all out at once. Even across the NW - let alone the regions still climbing up to their peak and catching the NW daily now. Yorkshire and London especially. Even the tiny North East is uncomfortably close to North West numbers as it keeps going up.

How Bolton has changed day to day since April shows that. Though it is stubbornly still above where it should be it went from worst to best in GM in weeks. And is the ONLY borough now not with a Pop score 400 or above. Even Bury broke that barrier yesterday and Stockport did a few days ago.

Bolton IS rising too though, But way behind Oldham and Rochdale the two worst GM boroughs.

Bolton 343 versus Oldham 640.

Bolton topped out at 456 on 23 May.

Only Bolton. Bury and Stockport are currently below the highest Pop number Bolton reached!
 
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I think Marv, from the article you posted the other day, the key is that new vaccines need to go through clinical trials again so it’s not necessarily the easy option. You can’t just update the current ones. Memory serves me right Pfizer were looking to enter the trials with their updated vaccine in August but not sure how long it takes to get approval or whether it’s the same 6 months or so as previous.
Won't it be like flu vaccines. I don't think they update them until the summer and have them ready for October roll out.
 
That sounds familiar. I was just suggesting that it could peak earlier in the North West. It's unlikely to proceed uniformly across the UK. I posted the Bolton and London cases up above somewhere and you can see quite a gap in time between the onset of the waves. I am expecting it to peak in Gtr Manchester before it peaks nationally but I haven't really got anything more to say than that. All guesswork.

Sounds reasonable. I'd only heard one date which I assume was national, which pretty much equates to London given the numbers posted.
 
Northern Ireland data

0 deaths - was 0 last week

511 cases - was 417 last week


That is it again today.

It will be back to normal weekday reporting here tomorrow.
 
So total deaths today 42 - with England out of hospital to come. Last week it was 39 at this stage. So only a modest rise on usually the worst day of the week with weekend catch up add ons.

That 39 became 37 on all settings later. Possibly 1 of today's England deaths will be deducted due to age of the case too.
 
And the three nation cases today are:- 3777

It was 3478 last week.

England later added 25, 295 to total 28,773


Yesterday England added 30, 619 to the other nations total of 3852 to total 34, 471
 
Zoe App Data:

THIS IS STILL GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION

Predicted cases DOWN 815 to 32, 424 - it has been around 32/33K for over a week now.

Ongoing symptomatic cases 454, 600 - up just 1243 - it was rising in 5 figures a week ago,
 
ZOE GREATER MANCHESTER DATA

Manchester now top on 17, 551 - up from 13, 466

Salford just behind on 16, 058 - down from 18, 294

Wigan next on 13, 354 - up from 12, 969

Trafford the only other in 5 figures - on 12, 256 - down from 12, 590

Bury next on 9963 - up from 9932

Stockport has risen up the ranks lately to 7659 - up from 6714 yesterday

Bolton next on 6056 - down big from 10, 324

Oldham next - unlike its real cases low down the list not top - on 5884 - up from 5812

Rochdale second bottom not second top as in real cases - on 3877 - up from 3579

And best of all Tameside on 3517 - well down from 5052.
 
50 All settings deaths - first time we have passed that number since 9 April - it was 37 last week

Cases 36, 660 - up 2189 on yesterday v 28, 773 last week

Bit of a bump up today in England

But Tuesday is often a big day - catch up on death numbers etc,
 
ZOE GREATER MANCHESTER DATA

Manchester now top on 17, 551 - up from 13, 466

Salford just behind on 16, 058 - down from 18, 294

Wigan next on 13, 354 - up from 12, 969

Trafford the only other in 5 figures - on 12, 256 - down from 12, 590

Bury next on 9963 - up from 9932

Stockport has risen up the ranks lately to 7659 - up from 6714 yesterday

Bolton next on 6056 - down big from 10, 324

Oldham next - unlike its real cases low down the list not top - on 5884 - up from 5812

Rochdale second bottom not second top as in real cases - on 3877 - up from 3579

And best of all Tameside on 3517 - well down from 5052.
Can you explain what these figures are please?
Are these the total number of cases since the pandemic began please & what is Zoe?
 
Zoe got Stockport rising right btw.

Terrible day here. Worst numbers in 6 months. Trafford clawed back 14 Pop Score points in one day after Stockport has been doing that to them for weeks. Stockport up 86 week to week! Trafford's numbers still dropping,

Only Oldham worse than Stockport - up 98 cases week to week.

Rochdale which had same case number as Stockport (220) - up 99 - the highest Pop Score rise of the day,

Bury lowest cases on 109. Bolton up its biggest week to week number in a while (43 to 145). Same score as Trafford, Which is down 18 week to week and going the right way after a long spell in trouble.

Manchester top 400.

Salford continue to improve - though up week to week by 29.
 
Can you explain what these figures are please?
Are these the total number of cases since the pandemic began please & what is Zoe?
They are a Zoe measure of active cases per million population.

So not a daily number as Gov UK posts but the total number of cases that are still ongoing. Based on the reports to their app day to day,

A kind of Pop Score though several times higher because they use a different fraction as the one Gov UK do for some reason.

So the raw number is far less important than the trend of going up or down. Which is the only thing it tends to get right and why I post them. The actual numbers show a kind of relative scale within the 10 boroughs of who is doing what but is not linked to the actual daily cases Gov UK offer.

It is a little confusing.
 
North West up today by 162 - GM falls by 9 - so that is a good day really all round.

North West up by 970 wk to wk - GM up by 429 - which is around 44% - not far off where it has been in past week. Slightly up only n yesterday.

Several regions went up today by more than the NW - including the North East, West Midlands, East and Yorkshire,
 
I don't get your point. respiratory season happens either way. Get more jabbed now, save lives. Flu jab will happen anyway. Opening up now will cause more deaths than not. We have a vaccine. Opening up now is simply because that dick in charge has backed himself into a corner and he is scared of bad press from a minority than saving peoples lives. The majority of the country think like this, all polls prove it but just like some of the morons on here, idiots shout loudest.

Opening up now instead of waiting for the vaccines to be fully done WILL cost people there lives, people immune compromised like me and others with co morbidities. That is a fact. Some are willing for those people to die because they don't want to wait. We aren't even really in lockdown compared to the past.
I'm sorry to hear you're immune-compromised. I don't mean any of this personally, I know it must be quite worrying for you.

Everyone who is vulnerable and can have a vaccine has been offered one months ago now. Every adult has been offered the vaccine and the uptake has slowed considerably. The only people left to offer the vaccine to is children and we're months away from that. At some point, we do have to get back to a level of normality and we've already pushed the original 'freedom day' (I hate that phrase) back to allow more vaccinations. We can't keep doing this indefinitely. This pandemic will cost the taxpayer billions and the sooner we can get back to normality the better.

I think the best tactic is to open up whilst simultaneously offering boosted support for people like yourself. The harsh reality is that COVID isn't going to go away. Even amongst a fully vaccinated population, there would be cases.
 
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