Political relations between UK-EU

[metalblue]

Mate, I did the German figures compared to UK and that was dismissed, overall reduction in trade also discounted, along with a side order of ‘who cares about imports’, and an invitation to eat salad because KFC and others have run out out of the staple that pretty much is their reason for being.

No amount of information be it the UK Quality Mark nonsense, our refusal to entertain temporary visas for truck drivers or care home staff or a hundred and one other things is going to make a difference to the Brexit faithful.

And if you fully agree that trade barriers make trade harder and/of more expensive and then voted to make that happen, then what is the point in having the discussion? We agree. The only difference is I voted not to raise trade barriers with Europe. You did.

But, unless I am mistaken, the figures were H1 2020 compared to H1 2021 - which would be first lockdown COVID when economies tanked 20+% in a month to now (far fewer/no lockdowns). Anyroads no matters.

I voted leave because of TTIPs and I stand by my reasoning for my decision. And I would vote leave again tomorrow. Without the whiff of TTIPs I would have voted remain. No question.

And yes mate I can absolutely see the shit show that has unfolded, we’ve got the complexities of Brexit but on top of that we’ve got politicians on both sides playing silly buggers. Unfortunately the relationship has turned a little toxic with grandstanding on both sides, hopefully a more cordial relationship can be found for all our sakes.

 

[BobKowalski]

But, unless I am mistaken, the figures were H1 2020 compared to H1 2021 - which would be first lockdown COVID when economies tanked 20+% in a month to now (far fewer/no lockdowns). Anyroads no matters.

I voted leave because of TTIPs and I stand by my reasoning for my decision. And I would vote leave again tomorrow. Without the whiff of TTIPs I would have voted remain. No question.

And yes mate I can absolutely see the shit show that has unfolded, we’ve got the complexities of Brexit but on top of that we’ve got politicians on both sides playing silly buggers. Unfortunately the relationship has turned a little toxic with grandstanding on both sides, hopefully a more cordial relationship can be found for all our sakes.

It was always going to turn toxic, especially once a Europhobic Govt was elected that is trying to pretend trade gravity and proximity isn’t a thing.

We’ve chosen our path. Outside of Europe, somewhat in the cold with the US and the pivot to China went tits over Hong Kong.

The one thing we managed to crow about was vaccines. Today, France (apparently) overtook us in single and double doses. You reckon the EU is going to forget Johnson reneging on his promise to work with Europe on Covid and then fixing the AZ contract to ‘UK first’ while still taking 20m doses from the EU?

There will be a working relationship, proximity dictates that. But you can forget cordial—too many flashpoints. We will spend the rest of days being bitter at the EU and blaming them for all our ills.

As a country we are a Daily Express headline.

 

[west didsblue]

But, unless I am mistaken, the figures were H1 2020 compared to H1 2021 - which would be first lockdown COVID when economies tanked 20+% in a month to now (far fewer/no lockdowns). Anyroads no matters.

I voted leave because of TTIPs and I stand by my reasoning for my decision. And I would vote leave again tomorrow. Without the whiff of TTIPs I would have voted remain. No question.

And yes mate I can absolutely see the shit show that has unfolded, we’ve got the complexities of Brexit but on top of that we’ve got politicians on both sides playing silly buggers. Unfortunately the relationship has turned a little toxic with grandstanding on both sides, hopefully a more cordial relationship can be found for all our sakes.

Would that be the TTIP that was binned off in 2016 because it would have given multinational corporations the power to override numerous regulations that benefit workers and the ability for them to sue governments if they try and implement legislation that negatively impacts them?

You do realise that we’re much more likely to sign up for something like that now that we’re desperate for trade deals to replace lost trade with the EU.

 

[bluethrunthru]

So its the EU's fault that we will have harmed our own legal system by becoming a 3rd country? The Express is just a joke,

EU issued legal warning over bid to block UK

THE European Union has been told it will severely harm the UK legal system if it blocks Britain's attempt to join an essential convention.

www.express.co.uk

 

[Vic]

.....it was this harsh mistress that did for the UK Quality Mark, will likely do for our attempt to impose full custom borders and is currently ensuring I cannot get a KFC bucket....

So there are some sunlit uplands.

 

[Vic]

I remember a few years back - think it was Arriva buses in Stoke were being criticised for hiring drivers from Poland because there were no qualified drivers locally. I always thought the answer was for Arriva, or the UK state, to pay for training - it could have been part of a loan scheme like they do for students and it would have been returned out of wages.

All tried. You can't make people drive buses if there are more attractive jobs around. Expect cuts to bus services soon as turnover in the industry is very high. And driving tests for recruits way behind.

 

[metalblue]

Would that be the TTIP that was binned off in 2016 because it would have given multinational corporations the power to override numerous regulations that benefit workers and the ability for them to sue governments if they try and implement legislation that negatively impacts them?

You do realise that we’re much more likely to sign up for something like that now that we’re desperate for trade deals to replace lost trade with the EU.

Yes it was binned off but by the Trump administration not the EU. The EU remained in favour of allowing corporations to override things like domestic healthcare priorities.

“Particularly in Germany, Austria, and Luxembourg, public resistance to TTIP was intense, but scepticism has also been running high in France and Italy. In October 2015, Berlin saw its largest protests in decades, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in to protest against TTIP.

The European Commission had long ignored this criticism, insisting on the legal mandate that it had been given by the member states to negotiate the deal. It maintained that it was not obliged to listen to civil society. But the anti-TTIP mood turned, to a certain degree, into an anti-EU-mood. To the TTIP-sceptics, the Commission’s stance became a symbol of all that was wrong with the EU: aloof bureaucrats in Brussels negotiating corporate-friendly deals at the European level without listening to people’s concern.

It is fair to say that because of this negative public mood, there was actually quite some relief in a number of national capitals, such as Berlin, when Donald Trump’s initial comments on TTIP last year enabled policymakers to shelve the negotiations without having to bear the blame for the negotiations ending.”

 

[metalblue]

So its the EU's fault that we will have harmed our own legal system by becoming a 3rd country? The Express is just a joke,

EU issued legal warning over bid to block UK

THE European Union has been told it will severely harm the UK legal system if it blocks Britain's attempt to join an essential convention.

www.express.co.uk

Well actually it’s bonkers that the EU won’t recognise UK rulings as enforceable in the EU given the vast vast majority of all contracts are governed by UK law. I’m not sure what the EUs end game is here. Will people and firms have to sue in both the UK courts and then, if successful, a court that the EU does recognise as equivalent? That’ll make justice easier won’t it? Long term affect on UK might be EU domicile companies asking to transitioning contracts away from using UK law but I don’t see anyone outside the EU agreeing to this readily.

 

[west didsblue]

Yes it was binned off but by the Trump administration not the EU. The EU remained in favour of allowing corporations to override things like domestic healthcare priorities.

“Particularly in Germany, Austria, and Luxembourg, public resistance to TTIP was intense, but scepticism has also been running high in France and Italy. In October 2015, Berlin saw its largest protests in decades, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in to protest against TTIP.

The European Commission had long ignored this criticism, insisting on the legal mandate that it had been given by the member states to negotiate the deal. It maintained that it was not obliged to listen to civil society. But the anti-TTIP mood turned, to a certain degree, into an anti-EU-mood. To the TTIP-sceptics, the Commission’s stance became a symbol of all that was wrong with the EU: aloof bureaucrats in Brussels negotiating corporate-friendly deals at the European level without listening to people’s concern.

It is fair to say that because of this negative public mood, there was actually quite some relief in a number of national capitals, such as Berlin, when Donald Trump’s initial comments on TTIP last year enabled policymakers to shelve the negotiations without having to bear the blame for the negotiations ending.”

I am aware that Trump put the final nail in the coffin, but TTIP never really stood a chance of going through in the form that the US originally wanted because of the hostility across Europe that you have mentioned in your quote. Whatever the EU Commission thought, it would never have got past the EU Council or the EU Parliament that represents the individual governments and individual voters respectively, unless there were huge changes to the rights given to the multinationals. As an economic equal to the US, the EU had the clout to be able to resist those pressures if Trump hadn't knocked it on the head for other reasons. If and when we, as an individual country, are in a similar position in trade negotiations with the US, do you trust our government not to lie down and accept those terms? I certainly don't, especially as we'll still desperately be trying to make up for the downturn in trade with our nearest neighbours due to the trade barriers our government has insisted on implementing as a result of our vote to leave.

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

Well actually it’s bonkers that the EU won’t recognise UK rulings as enforceable in the EU given the vast vast majority of all contracts are governed by UK law. I’m not sure what the EUs end game is here. Will people and firms have to sue in both the UK courts and then, if successful, a court that the EU does recognise as equivalent? That’ll make justice easier won’t it? Long term affect on UK might be EU domicile companies asking to transitioning contracts away from using UK law but I don’t see anyone outside the EU agreeing to this readily.

Isn’t it just a straight case of us being left out in the cold while they harvest our markets?

 

[metalblue]

I am aware that Trump put the final nail in the coffin, but TTIP never really stood a chance of going through in the form that the US originally wanted because of the hostility across Europe that you have mentioned in your quote. Whatever the EU Commission thought, it would never have got past the EU Council or the EU Parliament that represents the individual governments and individual voters respectively, unless there were huge changes to the rights given to the multinationals. As an economic equal to the US, the EU had the clout to be able to resist those pressures if Trump hadn't knocked it on the head for other reasons. If and when we, as an individual country, are in a similar position in trade negotiations with the US, do you trust our government not to lie down and accept those terms? I certainly don't, especially as we'll still desperately be trying to make up for the downturn in trade with our nearest neighbours due to the trade barriers our government has insisted on implementing as a result of our vote to leave.

The commission would not have been negotiating TTIPs in isolation from either the council or parliament. Its always close cooperation to prevent years of negotiations going down the pan because the terms are not palatable to either the council or parliament. Now domestic pressure may well have played a part in bringing it down but the very fact the commission were happy with this deal and didn’t give two fucks what folks thought is really the crux of the issue for me.

Fortunately, as articulated on this thread, we are now way down the pegging order for a US trade agreement but should we ever get to a similar place with our own trade negotiations we can discuss how we should overthrow the government ;)

 

[west didsblue]

Well actually it’s bonkers that the EU won’t recognise UK rulings as enforceable in the EU given the vast vast majority of all contracts are governed by UK law. I’m not sure what the EUs end game is here. Will people and firms have to sue in both the UK courts and then, if successful, a court that the EU does recognise as equivalent? That’ll make justice easier won’t it? Long term affect on UK might be EU domicile companies asking to transitioning contracts away from using UK law but I don’t see anyone outside the EU agreeing to this readily.

Really can't understand why the EU have decided to treat the UK as a competitor all of a sudden!

Seriously, you could use the exact same argument that the Brexiteers have used to justify Brexit. Short term pain for long term gain. In their case though it's probably true because their legal services industry will undoubtedly get a boost at the expense of ours and the companies that depend on those services will eventually adjust to the new arrangements. However I see no prospect of any long term gain for us thanks to Brexit, because the sanctions we have effectively imposed on ourselves will always make things more difficult than they would be irrespective of what costly mitigations and work rounds are eventually put in place.

 

[metalblue]

Isn’t it just a straight case of us being left out in the cold while they harvest our markets?

Not really because these contracts go out years if not decades. I struggle to see the benefit to the EU here, it simply damages their own citizens and firms ability to seek justice - and that can’t be right. It’s been muted it’s punishment but talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. So if it’s not punishment then what? Buggered if I know.

 

[west didsblue]

The commission would not have been negotiating TTIPs in isolation from either the council or parliament. Its always close cooperation to prevent years of negotiations going down the pan because the terms are not palatable to either the council or parliament. Now domestic pressure may well have played a part in bringing it down but the very fact the commission were happy with this deal and didn’t give two fucks what folks thought is really the crux of the issue for me.

Fortunately, as articulated on this thread, we are now way down the pegging order for a US trade agreement but should we ever get to a similar place with our own trade negotiations we can discuss how we should overthrow the government ;)

It's also quite possible that the Commission knew all along that it would never get past the Council, Parliament and individual countries for ratification but didn't want to be seen to be walking away.

 

[metalblue]

Really can't understand why the EU have decided to treat the UK as a competitor all of a sudden!

Seriously, you could use the exact same argument that the Brexiteers have used to justify Brexit. Short term pain for long term gain. In their case though it's probably true because their legal services industry will undoubtedly get a boost at the expense of ours and the companies that depend on those services will eventually adjust to the new arrangements. However I see no prospect of any long term gain for us thanks to Brexit, because the sanctions we have effectively imposed on ourselves will always make things more difficult than they would be irrespective of what costly mitigations and work rounds are eventually put in place.

I have no difficulty grasping that the EU sees us as a competitor - in my own industry I see them trying to leverage into revenue streams previously denied to Paris and Berlin. I have zero issue with it either, it’s just games and business will always outsmart the politicians because they don’t understand the industries to the right level.

But this is different, this looks like it’s denying easy justice - but it doesn’t really affect me so they can crack on as far as I’m concerned.

 

[metalblue]

It's also quite possible that the Commission knew all along that it would never get past the Council, Parliament and individual countries for ratification but didn't want to be seen to be walking away.

You mean it was just a smoke screen for us to get Messi?

 

[west didsblue]

You mean it was just a smoke screen for us to get Messi?

Something like that.

But in reality, the ratification process would never have allowed TTIP to go through in the form that it was in when it was canned by Trump.

If you remember the Canada EU deal which I don't recall being particularly contentious, that was held up and nearly scuppered because a region of Belgium didn't like it and the Belgian government had to talk them round. If multiple national governments including the Germans didn't like some of the provisions of TTIP, there was zero chance of it going through.

I think your vote for Brexit might have been on a false premise if TTIP was the main reason.

 

[Vic]

"Pro-Europeans are not interested in fixing Johnson’s deal, which they see as irredeemable; and leavers cannot concede that their fundamental premise was flawed. Neither side is yet ready to work with the banal reality that Brexit is an unspectacular failure: neither triumph, nor apocalypse. It is the damp smell in British politics that can be endured, but not quite ignored. The longer it is left untreated, the more expensive it will be to fix."

From
Brexit is a failure: but, to remainers’ frustration, it’s not a spectacular one | Rafael Behr | The Guardian

 

[metalblue]

Something like that.

But in reality, the ratification process would never have allowed TTIP to go through in the form that it was in when it was canned by Trump.

If you remember the Canada EU deal which I don't recall being particularly contentious, that was held up and nearly scuppered because a region of Belgium didn't like it and the Belgian government had to talk them round. If multiple national governments including the Germans didn't like some of the provisions of TTIP, there was zero chance of it going through.

I think your vote for Brexit might have been on a false premise if TTIP was the main reason.

Ignoring that a trade deal with the US is a different level.

I know the trade agreement with Brazil took something like 20 years because of a similar backwards and forwarding.

The Canadian deal still went through after the Belgium government persuaded rebels to vote it through. Our own government was in favour of TTIPs so we would have been reliant on rebels halting it. It’s all a bit “Jesus is my airbag”. That you put all your faith in it is your choice but I remain very happy with my reasons for my choice and would do the same again in a heartbeat.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

As far as I can tell, the Lugano issue is that the EU/Commission view it as being intended for countries with closely similar regulatory processes. There's no guarantee that in the future this would remain the case with the UK.

I can see that they might view a diverged UK as being not a great place to have make rulings.
I can also see why the UK might view that hypothetical situation as unlikely.
It's a breakdown of trust.