COVID Data Thread

TODAYS NORTHERN IRELAND CASES BY AGE GROUP ONLY A MODEST FALL IN WEEKLY CASES BUT THE TREND IN THE AGE GROUPS GOES ON OFFERING MORE GOOD NEWS THAT THE BOOSTERS ARE WORKING ON THE OLDER AGE GROUPS AND REDUCING NUMBERS THERE VERSUS THE YOUNGER ONES WHO NEED HOSPITAL FAR LESS.

6% OVER 60 VERSUS 68 % UNDER 40


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AS I NOTED ON THE MAIN THREAD I THINK A YEAR TO YEAR COMPARISON DAY TO DAY IN HERE OF LAST YEARS WINTER KENT VARIANT WAVE VERSUS THIS YEARS OMICRON WAVE MIGHT BE USEFUL

WILL UPDATE IT DAILY ONLY IN HERE



10 DEC 2020 NUMBERS V 10 DEC 2021


UK CASES 20,964 V 58,194

UK DEATHS 516 V 120

UK PATIENTS 16,331 V 7366

UK VENTILATED 1267 v 903




LONDON CASES 4989 V 9988

LONDON DEATHS 32 V 17

LONDON PATIENTS 1934 V 1193

LONDON VENTILATED 256 V 201



NORTH WEST CASES 1641 V 4886

NORTH WEST DEATHS 54 V 18

NORTH WEST PATIENTS 2287 V 829

NORTH WEST VENTILATED 161 V 103
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY



ADMISSIONS WEDNESDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

754 V 698 LAST WEEK & TWO WEEKS AGO THE NUMBER WAS 752

SO ADMISSIONS CLEARLY NOW GOING UP DAY TO DAY ON BOTH PAST WEEKS THOUGH NOT BY A LOT




Regional admissions Today V Last Week were:-

London 132 V 114 (UP 18), Midlands 130 V 144 (DOWN 14), NE & Yorkshire 102 V 96 (UP 6) & North West 104 V 88 (UP 16)

As you can see NE & Yorkshire and North West doing well but the others starting to creep up - even the North West.


PATIENTS YESTERDAY / TODAY


6130 / 6088 Today - DOWN by 42 on day.


Last week's numbers were:


5915 / 5851 DOWN by 64 on day


Week before the numbers were:


6068 / 5992 - DOWN by 76


So the numbers are very flat but all just still down


Two weeks ago the weekly fall day to day was 6310 to 5992 - A FALL OF 318

Last week the same day to day fall is 5992 to 5851 - A FALL OF 141

Today there is a RISE from 5851 to 6088 - UP BY 237

THE DOWNWARD TRACK WAS SLOWING AND SADLY NOW IS CLEARLY GOING UPWARD.



REGIONALLY DAY TO DAY:-


London UP 30 to 1193, Midlands DOWN 22 to 1165, NE & Yorks DOWN 33 to 890 & NW DOWN 3 to 829

So only London up today. Of the other three smaller region. South East DOWN 14 to 863 - still ahead of the North West after being well below it for weeks. East UP 7 to 576 & South West DOWN 7 to 572


Week to week London (UP 124), Midlands (UP 7), NE & Yorkshire (DOWN 57), East (UP 49), South East (UP 48) , South West (UP 21) and North West (UP 14) over the last 7 days.

SO WEEK TO WEEK NE & YORKS THE ONLY FALLER - JUST AS ZOE ALSO HAS IT THE LOWEST RATING ENGLAND REGION NOW - TAKEN OVER FROM NORTH WEST IN LAST DAY OR TWO




VENTILATORS DAY TO DAY


The numbers were:

792 / 793 - UP 1


Last week the numbers were:-

774 / 783 - UP 9


Two weeks ago the numbers were:-

790 / 796 - UP 6





So week to week today ventilators are UP 10

The previous week to week was DOWN by 13



REGIONALLY London has 201 (UP 4), Midlands 148 (DOWN 1), NE & Yorkshire 109 (DOWN 2) & North West 103 (UP 1)

East UP 1 to 77. South East UP 1 to 95.South West DOWN 3 to 60



NORTH WEST IS UP WEEK TO WEEK BY 5 FROM 98 TO 103.

Others:- EAST 73 TO 77, LONDON 187 TO 201, MIDLANDS 154 TO 148, NE & YORKS 120 TO 109, SOUTH EAST 90 TO 95, SOUTH WEST 61 TO 60
 
Healdplace said:
AS I NOTED ON THE MAIN THREAD I THINK A YEAR TO YEAR COMPARISON DAY TO DAY IN HERE OF LAST YEARS WINTER KENT VARIANT WAVE VERSUS THIS YEARS OMICRON WAVE MIGHT BE USEFUL

WILL UPDATE IT DAILY ONLY IN HERE



10 DEC 2020 NUMBERS V 10 DEC 2021


UK CASES 20,964 V 58,194

UK DEATHS 516 V 120

UK PATIENTS 16,331 V 7366

UK VENTILATED 1267 v 903




LONDON CASES 4989 V 9988

LONDON DEATHS 32 V 17

LONDON PATIENTS 1934 V 1193

LONDON VENTILATED 256 V 201



NORTH WEST CASES 1641 V 4886

NORTH WEST DEATHS 54 V 18

NORTH WEST PATIENTS 2287 V 829

NORTH WEST VENTILATED 161 V 103
Click to expand...

Hi @Healdplace - do you have records of number of tests taken / positivity too for comparison?
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS TODAY



Patients down by modest numbers today - but ventilators up


PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6088 , N IRELAND 317, SCOTLAND 573, WALES 388 UK TOTAL 7366 (DOWN 55)

Wales up - England, Scotland & N Ireland all down



VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 793, N IRELAND 31, SCOTLAND 40, WALES 39 UK TOTAL 903 (UP 6)

All up by tiny numbers
 
davealvers said:
Hi @Healdplace - do you have records of number of tests taken / positivity too for comparison?
Click to expand...
England never bothers with positivity unlike the other nations. But when you see the difference in tests the positivity -whaterver it is/was (England make it hard to calculate accurately) - is going to be lower now than then but hard to judge how much that means.

I did not cite tests as there are way more now than then and as noted above it is hard to directly compare so it is pretty meaningless to contrast raw numbers

In the UK today there were 1,306,436 pillar 1 & 2 tests V 2020 when there were 353,499.

The gap will be much like that every day during the two waves. Even at the peak in mid January it was only up to around 550,000
 
ENGLAND REGIONAL CASES TODAY


REGION / CASES TODAY / UP/DOWN ON YESTERDAY V LAST WEEK



London 9988- up from 7761 V 6741

South East 9614 - up from 8828 V 9070 - London and the SE = 19,602 of the UK 58,194 cases today!

East 5967 - up from 5314 V 5726

NORTH WEST 4886 - UP from 4066 V 4808 - still way behind the southern regions

West Midlands 4755 - up from 3439 V 4099

South West 4282 - down from 4738 V 5387

East Midlands 3954 - up from 3852 V 3812

Yorkshire 3192 - up from 2813 V 2346- Yorkshire still the best by nearly all measures - including Zoe & hospital numbers

North East 2042 - up from 1496 V 1691
 
NORTH WEST NUMBERS

4886 UP 820 on yesterday & UP 78 from last week's 4808.

Big rise on day but modest week to week


GREATER MANCHESTER NUMBERS

1902 - UP 262 FROM 1640 from the NW rise of 820 - so GM on the day is about 39% - par or just below it - of the usual split of NW. Which is good news with a rise.

AND

Week to week GM is UP 35 from 1867 - which is just under half of the 78 NW rise.

That is a also not much over the 39% par.

So not a bad day for GM week to week relative to the region.

More evenly distributed though. Manchester up by 45 week to week, Bolton by 30, Stockport up week to week by 25, Bury by 23, Salford by 12 & Tameside by 4.

Everyone else was down week to week. Oldham by 27, Rochdale by 25, Trafford by 4 but having the best day again - Wigan by 48.

Despite Trafford being down 4 week to week it scored 198 - whilst both Salford and Stockport had 205.

Of these Trafford being the smallest borough had a bigger Pop Score - 83. But not the worst. Bury's score of 169 earmed it a Pop Score of 88.

Bolton with a hgh Pop score itself of 62 did gain on Stockport by 8 to cut the gap to just 389.

Stockport's Pop of 70 was easily enough to take it out as the last one in the 17K club and into the 18K.

Bury will probably exit the 18K into the 19K club tomorrow. Leaving just Stockport (18,025), Bolton (18,414) & Trafford (18,683) there with Bolton still on course to catch Stockport and take the lead around the Christmas break if current patters remain.

At the other end Salford (19,554) is in a similar race to catch the highest Pop in GM - Rochdale (19,662) and that could happen around the same time on present numbers. Though possibly not before GM gets its first entrant into the 20K club.

For context right now Middlesbrough (20,089), Hyndburn (Accrington) (20,333),Derry, N Ireland (20,597), Burnley (20,898), Merthyr Tydfil (20,965), Knowsley (21,584) & Blackburn highest in UK (22,224) are the only boroughs in the UK above the 19Ks.

Just 7 - and 4 of them are in the North West - including the two highest and only ones in the 21 and 22 K clubs.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

12 deaths - was 14 last week

4087 cases - was 1257 last week

9.9% positivity - was 5.9 last week (due to the missing tests)

NB THEY SAY THIS IS STILL IMPACTED BY THE MORE RAPID TESTING RETURNS NOW NEEDED TO SPEEDILY TRACK OMICRON AND LOOK HIGHER THAN THEY ARE AS LAST SATURDAY THOSE CASES WERE DOWN DUE TO A LAB DELAY - SO CASES ARE WELL UP BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS IT SEEMS (DOUBLED NOT QUADRUPLED) AS THE POSITIVITY LEVEL TODAY BEING PRETTY SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS AND ONLY HUGE VERSUS LAST WEEK WHEN TESTS WERE MISSING

OMICRON IS MAKING ITS MARK A LOT IN SCOTLAND THOUGH REGARDLESS

PART OF THE REASON FOR THE SUDDEN BIG RISE BUT NOT THE ONLY ONE


552 patients - DOWN 21 on yesterday - was 605 last week

33 ventilated icu - was 40 yesterday & 52 last week -

BUT - AS YOU SEE - THE HOSPITAL DATA IS STILL GOING DOWN QUITE A LOT - NOT UP.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA



3 deaths - was 9 last week

1446 cases - was 1642 last week


ALL WE GET AT WEEKENDS - BUT WHAT WE GET IS NOT BAD. BOTH DOWN.
 
132 all settings deaths - up from 127 last Saturday

England only 117 - up from 104 last Saturday

54,073 cases - up 11,225 on last Saturday but down 4121 on yesterday

England only 48,540 - up 8591 on last Saturday but down 368 on yesterday

The larger UK drop on yesterday mostly down to no Wales data posted on Saturdays each week. Why it does not impact the week to week numbers as there was no Wales data then either.

Sadly, most regions were down today - only South West was not other than the North West) and by far the worst increase today was in the North West.

And Greater Manchester had the lions share of that increase to some really huge numbers that tell you that Omicron has arrived here.

One of the biggest daily rises I can recall in both the region and the ten boroughs. Only Omicron rates of growth could explain the way the numbers have tracked over past few days.

North West up 1118 on yesterday to 6008 - highest regional numbers in months.

Greater Manchester up 713 of that - well over the share it should be getting (about 500) onto 2615 - again the highest since Delta colonised GM in the Summer.

North West week to week up huge - from 4130 - by 1878.

Greater Manchester up 1112 of those - the biggest weekly rise I have ever seen in GM.

Again well over what it should be (around 750).

So Greater Manchester would seem to be where Omicron has landed.
 
WALES DATA

For Friday only as always on Sunday - Sat & Sun will be together tomorrow as usual


5 deaths - was 5 last week

2591 cases - was 2567 last week

9.8% positivity - was 9.7% last week - Very flat numbers here so far which is OK given the GM numbers in past few days which are clearly going up fast via Omicrons arrival

388 patients - was 409 last week

39 ventilated - was 41 last week


Hospital numbers still improving but starting to creep up towards parity again.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 7 last week

4002 cases - was 2067 last week

10.2% positivity - was 9.6% last week (not a big jump given the cases as tests are well up - see below on this)

NB THEY SAY THIS IS STILL IMPACTED BY THE FASTER TESTING RETURNS AND IS A FACTOR FROM THE POSITIVIRY RATE BUT CASES ARE WELL UP AND THE ARRIVAL OF OMICRON SEEMS ALSO A LIKELY REASON FOR MUCH OF THIS DOUBLING


541 patients - DOWN 11 on yesterday - was 586 last week

37 ventilated icu - was 33 yesterday & 45 last week -

BUT - AS YOU SEE - THE HOSPITAL DATA IS STILL MAINLY TRENDING DOWN - NOT UP.
 
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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

Only the bare numbers here as always at weekend

3 deaths - was 7 last week

1548 cases - was 1422 last week
 
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UK & ENGLAND DATA

52 all settings deaths - was 54 last Sunday

44 in England - was 41 last Sunday

48,854 cases - down 5219 on yesterday BUT up 4962 on last Sunday

England only 40,713 - down 7827 on yesterday AND up 3317 on last Sunday
 
ENGLAND REGIONAL CASES TODAY


REGION / CASES TODAY / UP/DOWN ON YESTERDAY V LAST WEEK



London 9969 up from 8537 V 4713 - NOT HARD TO SEE WHERE OMICRON IS RIGHT NOW

South East 7458 - down from 8992 V 7874 - As London has risen South East has fallen almost as much as NW

East 4703 - down from 5174 V 4148

NORTH WEST 4428 - down from 6004 V 3892 - the biggest regional fall today

Yorkshire 3616 - up from 3077 V 3284- Yorkshire started to rise a bit in past two days

South West 3408 - down from 4697 V 4092

East Midlands 3085 - down from 3628 V 3552

West Midlands 2801 - down from 4694 V 3438

North East 1212 - down from 1688 V 1437
 
GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY TODAY


NORTH WEST CASES 4428 - down 1576 FROM 6004 yesterday

The NW % of GM yesterday was 43.6% - Over par.


GM CASES 1710 cases - down 905 FROM 2615 yesterday'

NW % of GM today is 38.6% - Well down on yesterday and now about par.



CASES / CHANGE ON DAY / CHANGE WEEK TO WEEK / POP SCORE RISE / POP SCORE




MANCHESTER 293 / DOWN 241 / UP 22 / POP 53 / 19,254

BURY 198 / DOWN 1 / UP 86 / POP 104 * / 19,159 - Risen 209 in the last 48 hours - * Highest Pop Score today

WIGAN 195 / DOWN 76 / UP 41 / POP 59 / 19,349

STOCKPORT 183 / DOWN 66 / UP 2 / POP 62 / 18,172

SALFORD 167 / DOWN 95 / UP 47 / POP 60 / 19,713

TRAFFORD 162 / DOWN 187 / DOWN 2 / POP 68 / 18,898

BOLTON 156 / UP 14 / UP 33 POP 54 / 18,517

OLDHAM 125 / DOWN 82 / UP 2 / POP 53 / 19,476

ROCHDALE 120 / DOWN 129 / DOWN 65 / POP 54 / 19,827

TAMESIDE 111 / DOWN 43 / DOWN 24 / POP 49 * / 19,211 * Lowest Pop Score today




WEEKLY POP SCORE TABLE LOWEST (BEST) TO HIGHEST (WORST) / BRACKETS (UP/DOWN IN WEEK)


BOLTON 346 (UP 44)

OLDHAM 375 (UP 61)

TAMESIDE 409 (UP 13)

WIGAN 433 (UP 11)

MANCHESTER 444 (UP 128)

ROCHDALE 481 (UP 84)

STOCKPORT 508 (UP 97)

SALFORD 508 (UP 121)

BURY 554 (UP 134)

TRAFFORD 665 (UP 195 )



The table is now starting to look ominously like it did a few weeks ago before Trafford and Stockport fell big after their huge climbs. Trafford is again well clear. But Stockport is high though not on its own and has settled a bit in past few days with Salford and Bury having worse days and climbing upwards. Bury is especially going up after recemtly being one of the lowest in GM. The closest challengder to Trafford now though some way back.

Manchester too has gone well up into the mid 400s with big increases over recent days. Though well down today.

But as you can see EVERY borough is going upward weekly now. Only Tameside and Wigan by small numbers week to week.

There are now 7 boroughs in the 19K club with Bury making an early entry with two huge scores in past 48 hours and Pops over 100 those two days running.

Stockport was the last to exit the 17K club and is in the 18K now with Trafford and Bolton. Though Trafford is at most 2 days away from being number 8 to exit and enter into the 19K club.

Bolton is creeping up like the rest in GM but still doing better than the rest and is daily catching up and on trajectory to overtake Stockport as the lowest scoring borough across the pandemic right now in early New Year. Though its big gains have slowed in past couple of days as it was looking like Christmas before then and it has risen a bit and Stockport's stabilised a bit since.

Bolton still gained another 8 today AND is now just 345 ahead of Stockport.

At the other end Rochdale is going to be the first into the 20K club probably by the middle of the coming week. Salford are slowly catching up but at 114 behind is not getting there before that 20 K entry happens. Though Stockport will almost certainly join it in the 20K club by next weekend.
 
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WALES DATA

For Sat & Sun combined as usual on Mondays


8 deaths - was 6 last week

4543 cases - was 4405 last week

10.5% positivity - was 9.9% last week - a small increase but nothing like the doubling every 2 day effect as yet

388 patients (Friday) - was 417 last week

39 ventilated - was 37 last week


Hospital numbers not shooting up yet but we have to see what the weekend brought across the UK later.
 
A bit of context for the NHS, as these figures are rarely/never reported. They are for the region of England I live in.

% of beds occupied by covid positive patients. 5.4%
11200 beds of which 610 are covid patients.
total bed occupancy. 93%
critical care beds occupied. 290
critical care beds occupied by Covid positive patients. 80
610 beds occupied by C-19 patients of which 294 were diagnosed whilst inpatients.
390 patients on mechanical ventilation, 76 of which are covid positive.
oxygen beds available 10000. 450 covid positive patients and 9000 not.

Now, admittedly these figures could certainly be better, but are they the figures that mean plans b and c need to be even thought about, let alone implemented?
Apologies for posting in 2 threads but I thought it was interesting enough for both.
 
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