Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Ok, semantics. Some industries will be more affected than others.

That’s ok then is it.

The people making these decisions don’t have a fucking clue.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

That’s ok then is it.

The people making these decisions don’t have a fucking clue.

That’s where your beef lies.

Fair enough.

 

[Bluewonder]

It’s not about .

It‘s about preserving as many lives as possible during a pandemic.

We shut down too late last March. We may have restricted too quickly this time (although the music industry is still open…). We don’t know though.

It isn't about preserving as many lives as possible at whatever cost. That isn't how society works

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

It isn't about preserving as many lives as possible at whatever cost. That isn't how society works

Ok

 

[paulchapo]

your fully entitled to your opinion mate even if you think it was made on the dark side of the moon by the remaining Nazi's that fled the war, i like the input TBH and certainly worth airing your views, governments not always tell us the truth as we full well know so its good to debate

Not according to some on here. I actually didn't say I thought China released it as some biological weapon, I wanted to know from some of our knowledgeable posters on here if this was normal virus behaviour. Not mutating as I know viruses do that, but I've heard some experts have said it had surprised them in its behaviour. Our own government is economical with the truth and would anybody trust China in that context?

 

[Healdplace]

Thanks @Healdplace

I always find your narrative posts interesting, balances and easily readable, like a very good Finance Director's Board report in fact !. Please keep going.

Thank you. The only board I have ever been on was a strange UK body that acted like a national bank whilst actually doing stuff about as far removed as possible from something so grand.

I lasted a few years but it was mostly stuffy old blokes and they tended to see me more as a secretary to do the paper work they hated or could not be bothered with but i never bothered me as I enjoyed writing (as I suspect you can tell).

I ended up having a Jackie Weaver moment when they went a bit far. No Zoom then or it would have been all over the internet. No internet come to think of it.

Mind you I got my own back soon after as one of my books inspired parts of a TV drama. The board asked me back as they thought it would give them publicity. I told them I was too busy making a trailer for a Hollywood movie. Slight exaggeration but not entirely untrue. That is how to get your own back.

I hated being in the public eye when it was part of the job when I had to promote books around the world sometimes. I am happier writing on my own than engaging in banter and am not sorry I do not have to do that kind of stuff any more.

Being here unseen is like a holiday by comparison. Not a chore. Though taking my boyfriend to a London movie premiere was a pretty great way of getting onto his good side. So it had its moments. We were engaged soon after. He never shut up about it. As a Liverpool fan he needed something to cheer about.

 

[paulchapo]

You are

I've just seen you link me to my post on Epstein to try and prove I'm some sort of conspiracy enthusiast, because I said what probably 99% of the world thinks, he was silenced because he knew too much. That's my opinion on a highly suspicious death while he was supposedly a high risk prisoner in protective custody.Just like the police investigating Saville and finding there wasn't enough evidence to take him to court, amazing what people believe isn't it?

 

[Healdplace]

Up to 200 - 250,000 cases a day by 1 January some scientist has just been inferring on the news may be coming.

That and the scientist thread linked above about AZ being in effect rendered useless unless you have a Pfizer booster begs questions like how long have they known this? As they quickly chose not to use AZ for boosters long before this variant turned up. Did they have doubts already?

I guess the truth lies somewhere in the middle as it seems unlikely one Pfizer booster turns nothing into the same something you get with two prior Pfizer jabs.

Guess we are pinning a lot on this really being much milder when it gets into the vulnerable ages as Christmas will make all but certain.

Stopping it ruling the world s already a lost cause and we have to hope it really has traded off infectivity for degree of serious infection within the body.

Whilst millions of cases in mid winter will stlll be a problem if it is just as deadly as Delta we would be in for long shutdowns that could kill off livelihoods as the alternative will be likely China in the early days of the first wave in 2019 where people were sent home to die as there was no room in the hospital.

I recall reading a chilling account from someone living there in about November 2019 before we ever thought it was coming here and how he nearly died from it. We have avoided those scenes here and we do not ever want to see them this Winter.

A lot is riding on just how less dangerous this clearly very very infective variant turns out to be. Good signs so far but we are yet to see it hit hard the most vulnerable.

Going into Christmas when spread will syrocket and old and young will mix will be the moment we learn if this is a godsend or a disaster movie.

 

[paulchapo]

Up to 200 - 250,000 cases a day by 1 January some scientist has just been inferring on the news may be coming.

That and the scientist thread linked above about AZ being in effect rendered useless unless you have a Pfizer booster begs questions like how long have they known this? As they quickly chose not to use AZ for boosters long before this variant turned up. Did they have doubts already?

I guess the truth lies somewhere in the middle as it seems unlikely one Pfizer booster turns nothing into the same something you get with two prior Pfizer jabs.

Guess we are pinning a lot on this really being much milder when it gets into the vulnerable ages as Christmas will make all but certain.

Stopping it ruling the world s already a lost cause and we have to hope it really has traded off infectivity for degree of serious infection within the body.

Whilst millions of cases in mid winter will stlll be a problem if it is just as deadly as Delta we would be in for long shutdowns that could kill off livelihoods as the alternative will be likely China in the early days of the first wave in 2019 where people were sent home to die as there was no room in the hospital.

I recall reading a chilling account from someone living there in about November 2019 before we ever thought it was coming here and how he nearly died from it. We have avoided those scenes here and we do not ever want to see them this Winter.

A lot is riding on just how less dangerous this clearly very very infective variant turns out to be. Good signs so far but we are yet to see it hit hard the most vulnerable.

Going into Christmas when spread will syrocket and old and young will mix will be the moment we learn if this is a godsend or a disaster movie.

Fingers crossed it's not the disaster movie scenario.

I'd like to add my thanks to yourself and a few other knowledgeable posters on here during this pandemic. I get my information from here as I just find the news and especially Boris's press conferences too depressing and mentally draining. Keep up the good work but I'm sure both of us hope your posts on this subject end soon

 

[Summerbuzz]

It isn't about preserving as many lives as possible at whatever cost. That isn't how society works

arf go on then Rosseau enlighten us all

 

[grunge]

Not according to some on here. I actually didn't say I thought China released it as some biological weapon, I wanted to know from some of our knowledgeable posters on here if this was normal virus behaviour. Not mutating as I know viruses do that, but I've heard some experts have said it had surprised them in its behaviour. Our own government is economical with the truth and would anybody trust China in that context?

i personally don’t buy into the whole “how it mutates makes it man made” theory. It’s like saying “in a million generations time your descendent will be blond haired and green eyed”.

 

[marco]

I've just seen you link me to my post on Epstein to try and prove I'm some sort of conspiracy enthusiast, because I said what probably 99% of the world thinks, he was silenced because he knew too much. That's my opinion on a highly suspicious death while he was supposedly a high risk prisoner in protective custody.Just like the police investigating Saville and finding there wasn't enough evidence to take him to court, amazing what people believe isn't it?

TBH you would have to be some sort of nut job to dismiss that Epstein was not taken out and did indeed hang himself,,if i ever come back in the next life im certainly going to be a multi millionaire because as you age in life you see how gullible people are

 

[Marvin]

I wish we knew what the prognosis for Omicron infection was i.e. how many who are infected will get serious illness. This is far from obvious because 81% of UK people over the age of 12 have been double vaccinated and 40% of >12s have had a booster. Plus there is a question mark over whether omicron infection leads to serious illness.

I am not bothered for myself because my booster is next week and the data shows that it will be very effective but I hate the thought of more lockdowns. I believe that lockdowns will be unnecessary though I understand why we are talking about them because there is huge uncertainty. If you were managing the health service or local services and in a position of responsibility and you were being fed the reports we have all seen you'd be compelled to plan for the worst.

My hunch is that omicron is not intrinsically milder but appears milder in populations simply because exposure to the virus across the globe is now very significant. We can therefore expect a huge spike in cases but will it be associated with a spike in death and hospitalisation? I think it will be manageable because I am trusting that infection / vaccination truly does protect against serious illness.

The SA epidemic is our window on our future (but they don't have boosters - just starting I believe) and yet the picture there is confusing. The daily figures and hospitalisations are also confusing. Early days. We will know in a week I think.

Link to SA health service data (SA website)

You can also look at Norwegian data: They have an omicron infection too I believe and hosiptalisations are climbing steeply. This data is worrying. See their ICU admissions.

Edit: I later realised from other comments that the Norwegian data is likely irrelevant as they have a serious Delta infection.

Norwegian hospital data

Conclusion: Get your booster and cross your fingers.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Interesting read. Pretty worrying that AZ has zero effectiveness against it, which I’m not sure how she has concluded?

The efficacy quoted is against symptomatic disease, not hospitalisation. That's believed very likely to hold up well. Thankfully.

The Pfizer quoted efficacy is also very low indeed, 30% only. Both have large error margins, both could be similar in reality.

But. Booster takes you to 70%+ for at least a month.

Get your boosters blues.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The SA epidemic is our window on our future (but they don't have boosters - just starting I believe) and yet the picture there is confusing. The daily figures and hospitalisations are also confusing. Early days. We will know in a week I think

SA thread from local health journalist, reflects your opinion.

 

[Gabriel]

I wish we knew what the prognosis for Omicron infection was i.e. how many who are infected will get serious illness. This is far from obvious because 81% of UK people over the age of 12 have been double vaccinated and 40% of >12s have had a booster. Plus there is a question mark over whether omicron infection leads to serious illness.

I am not bothered for myself because my booster is next week and the data shows that it will be very effective but I hate the thought of more lockdowns. I believe that lockdowns will be unnecessary though I understand why we are talking about them because there is huge uncertainty. If you were managing the health service or local services and in a position of responsibility and you were being fed the reports we have all seen you'd be compelled to plan for the worst.

My hunch is that omicron is not intrinsically milder but appears milder in populations simply because exposure to the virus across the globe is now very significant. We can therefore expect a huge spike in cases but will it be associated with a spike in death and hospitalisation? I think it will be manageable because I am trusting that infection / vaccination truly does protect against serious illness.

The SA epidemic is our window on our future (but they don't have boosters - just starting I believe) and yet the picture there is confusing. The daily figures and hospitalisations are also confusing. Early days. We will know in a week I think.

Link to SA health service data (SA website)

I agree with that. The South African data was incomplete yesterday but they’re also in summer and have a much younger population. Still find it bizarre that they’re on the lowest level of restrictions while the UK battens down the hatches. I reckon Omicron will go through the country like a dose of the salts over the next month, but nobody can tell how serious it’s impact will be. It’ll likely ruin any family festivities but might actually hasten the pandemic’s end, making it the best Christmas present, albeit one we don’t appreciate at the time. That’s my hunch.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

You can also look at Norwegian data: They have an omicron infection too I believe and hosiptalisations are climbing steeply. This data is worrying. See their ICU admissions

Norway was already in a big delta surge. Not sure it tells you anything about omicron.

 

[Gabriel]

Norway was already in a big delta surge. Not sure it tells you anything about omicron.

Norway’s NIPH weekly report.
https://www.fhi.no/en/publ/2020/weekly-reports-for-coronavirus-og-covid-19/

 

[True_Blue69]

The efficacy quoted is against symptomatic disease, not hospitalisation. That's believed very likely to hold up well. Thankfully.

The Pfizer quoted efficacy is also very low indeed, 30% only. Both have large error margins, both could be similar in reality.

But. Booster takes you to 70%+ for at least a month.

Get your boosters blues.

That’s a relief, cheers for clearing up.

 

[Marvin]

Norway was already in a big delta surge. Not sure it tells you anything about omicron.

I looked at it because I saw their cases rising very sharply and assumed it was omicron. If not, then irrelevant.