Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Gabriel]

Is there any stats on how many people with Omicron have been hospitalised? This is the stat that’s the most important stat to find out in a month where we will be at!

I think it’s difficult to distinguish, certainly from the South African data, people who have it when hospitalised from people hospitalised because of it.

 

[BlueAnorak]

It's looking like it's a virus vaccine.
Norway that is nearly a week ahead of us. Massive spike in cases, no change in the bad numbers.

A scientist on the BBC warned today that literally everyone - unless living as a hermit - will meet someone with Omicron over the next few weeks. And most will likely catch it.

This will be no ordinary wave if that is true.

The only real hope is that it is genuinely less deadly even in the most vulnerable categories, that maybe half a million cases not 50,000 as now, on one day at the peak does not create enough hospital patients to cause the NHS big problems given all the other stuff we might see this Winter (though Omicron might actually be so virulent it suppresses them a lot hopefully) and IF this proves the terminal wave that tops up human immunity massively in one go with minimal cost to life and we end up with a dominant virus strain too successful to be out competed then we truly can live with it much as we do with flu.

A lot of big ifs there. But this is going to be a happy new year or a nightmare. We all have to hope it is the former or today may be one of the last City games you get to go to any time soon.

It is less deadly. Considerably so.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Introducing more restrictions early in 2022 would be sufficient to control the wave, the experts said, such as curbs on indoor hospitality, closure of some entertainment venues and restrictions on gathering sizes, potentially reducing hospitalisations by 53,000 and deaths by 7,600.

If no control measures are taken, it could lead to a peak in hospital admissions around twice as high as the peak seen in January 2021, with 492,000 (418,000–537,000) hospitalisations and 74,800 (63,500–82,900) deaths.

 

[tonea2003]

It's looking like it's a virus vaccine.
Norway that is nearly a week ahead of us. Massive spike in cases, no change in the bad numbers.

It is less deadly. Considerably so.

why is the modelling giving us these scary number then....scaremongering?

 

[Gabriel]

It's looking like it's a virus vaccine.
Norway that is nearly a week ahead of us. Massive spike in cases, no change in the bad numbers.

It is less deadly. Considerably so.

Appears to be and we hope that is the case, but there just isn’t enough data and not enough time has lapsed to draw a conclusion. All anyone can make in the meantime is predictions.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

why is the modelling giving us these scary number then....scaremongering?

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

why is the modelling giving us these scary number then....scaremongering?

not like they ever do that so they can use up extra jabs they've got left over.

 

[BlueAnorak]

why is the modelling giving us these scary number then....scaremongering?

Infection numbers are very scary.
Fortunately the severity is much less.
The spike in cases in SA is humongous whereas the spike in hospitalisation is small and the spike in deaths - what spike?
The only issue is how it will affect 70+ year olds in the west.

 

[tonea2003]

Infections are very scary. Fortunately the severity is much less. The only issue is how it will affect 70+ year olds.

like the annual flu season then

 

[Claytop]

All that should be of interest is hospitalisations, measures shouldn’t be introduced on a case basis as if the vaccines, boosters etc are enough to keep it mild then cases are irrelevant.

 

[blueinsa]

All that should be of interest is hospitalisations, measures shouldn’t be introduced on a case basis as if the vaccines, boosters etc are enough to keep it mild then cases are irrelevant.

Don’t forget the “game changing” antivirals we now have as well.

 

[crooky]

They must be confident that it's significantly less dangerous than the previous Covid strains.

Because if it was anywhere near as damaging, plus the way it can dodge the first two vaccines and how much quicker it spreads. Then we would be in lockdown already imo.

 

[Gabriel]

All that should be of interest is hospitalisations, measures shouldn’t be introduced on a case basis as if the vaccines, boosters etc are enough to keep it mild then cases are irrelevant.

Problem is that they won’t know for another 4-5 weeks what hospitalizations will be like, which if they took no measures now might be too late.

 

[Toney’s bookie]

A scientist on the BBC warned today that literally everyone - unless living as a hermit - will meet someone with Omicron over the next few weeks. And most will likely catch it.

This will be no ordinary wave if that is true.

The only real hope is that it is genuinely less deadly even in the most vulnerable categories, that maybe half a million cases not 50,000 as now, on one day at the peak does not create enough hospital patients to cause the NHS big problems given all the other stuff we might see this Winter (though Omicron might actually be so virulent it suppresses them a lot hopefully) and IF this proves the terminal wave that tops up human immunity massively in one go with minimal cost to life and we end up with a dominant virus strain too successful to be out competed then we truly can live with it much as we do with flu.

A lot of big ifs there. But this is going to be a happy new year or a nightmare. We all have to hope it is the former or today may be one of the last City games you get to go to any time soon.

But this poses the question - if literally everyone gets Omicron over the next few weeks then literally EVERY death and hospitalisation over the next few weeks will be recorded as ‘Covid’ under the current 28-day measurement, no?

So even if it gave literally nothing but a sniffle, the stats would look horrendous regardless

 

[Del_Bosque]

It’s pretty clear nobody has got a fucking scooby whats going to happen.

Far, far far too many variables on previous infection, vaccine dosing, waning, severity and it’s still extremely early.

I’m ignoring any models.

 

[Quad]

It’s pretty clear nobody has got a fucking scooby whats going to happen.

Far, far far too many variables on previous infection, vaccine dosing, waning, severity and it’s still extremely early.

I’m ignoring any models.

If government came out with this hell of a lot more people would go along with it

it’s same crap every time , let’s get some science guy who wants to stay relative on tv

 

[N1985]

Keep doing what you're doing. Be careful. Wash your hands. Use sanitiser, and keep your distance and you'll be fine.

Be an ignorant **** and you'll get it, and because you're a **** you probably didn't get vaccinated so you're going to be pretty fucking rough with it.

This pandemic malarkey is pretty simple

 

[Uncle Wally One Ball]

If government came out with this hell of a lot more people would go along with it

it’s same crap every time , let’s get some science guy who wants to stay relative on tv

I cant think of anyone I would want to see study it and pass comment than a 'science guy'. That is what they are for. who on earth would you prefer to do it?

 

[splinter]

SA data still looking positive..hopefully it works out the same in the UK ?

 

[Healdplace]

132 all settings deaths - up from 127 last Saturday

England only 117 - up from 104 last Saturday

54,073 cases - up 11,225 on last Saturday but down 4121 on yesterday

England only 48,540 - up 8591 on last Saturday but down 368 on yesterday

The larger UK drop on yesterday mostly down to no Wales data posted on Saturdays each week. Why it does not impact the week to week numbers as there was no Wales data then either.