Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Hutchymcfc said:
Like the science guys have never get it wrong all the time with prediction about cases and deaths
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They get it wrong continually continually over egging the pudding.
They don't correct their models for real world data.
All it does is provide ammunition for the antivaxer and the antimasker brigades.
It does my chuffing head in.
 
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bobbyowenquiff said:
I don't think most the UK media have reported Covid in a fair or accurate way at all. The information is out there if you seek it in medical journals and from credible respected experts but, with a few exceptions, the press coverage has been hysterical and overly negative.
The coverage has been very politicised and rarely has it shown the full context. The stories are distorted and spun from a very partial position depending on the media outlet's position. What we have not seen is a clear communication and explanation of what is going on. In my view the UK media has failed miserably with its Covid coverage. It is one of the reasons the loonies and conspiracy cranks have been able to fill the vacuum with their crazy ideas.
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It's all about the clicks!
Rational reporting on either the worse or best case scenarios won't attract interest.
 
BlueAnorak said:
They don't go by past data. If they did the prediction in March July and late September would have become more accurate with each wave with latest actuals between somewhere between the lower and upper quartile predictions.
Last September the lower quartile prediction was between two and three times HIGHER than the actual numbers.
As a statistician the SAGE models really, really bug me. They are shit and are are virtually useless.
They are so consistently bad that I will take their lower quartile prediction as the very worst case and scale it back from there.
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You have to remember that SAGE prediction models are formulated by mathematicians and shouldn't be treated as gospel. They're an indication of both best and worst case scenarios based upon the data that's available. For the rest of the data there's only assumption and that's where the error sits.

They have a job to produce these models but there's no reason to think they're meant to be exact. It's like trying to predict the weather for 3 weeks time where all you have to go off is what's happened in previous years and what's happening now.

The thing that really grinds my gears on this is the way the media report it as "scientists say X could cause X deaths" when that isn't true. Epidemiological forecast models are not science, they're just statistical forecasts by mathematicians.
 
BlueAnorak said:
How many so far?
How many admitted with just omnicron?
How many with other conditions?
Shit science. Shit reporting.
Just encouragement for the antivaxer and antimasker brigades.
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Don’t know.
Don't know.
Don’t know.
No science, so can’t be shit.
Limited reporting, no idea if shit or all they’ve been given.
Antivaxxers and antimaskers don’t need encouragement to spout their shit.

I wasn’t offended by the report of some cases now in hospital.

I read it thought, yeah, that’s probably true, but it doesn’t really tell us much and carried on with my day.
 
inbetween said:
You have to remember that SAGE prediction models are formulated by mathematicians and shouldn't be treated as gospel. They're an indication of both best and worst case scenarios based upon the data that's available. For the rest of the data there's only assumption and that's where the error sits.

They have a job to produce these models but there's no reason to think they're meant to be exact. It's like trying to predict the weather for 3 weeks time where all you have to go off is what's happened in previous years and what's happening now.

The thing that really grinds my gears on this is the way the media report it as "scientists say X could cause X deaths" when that isn't true. Epidemiological forecast models are not science, they're just statistical forecasts by mathematicians.
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They never quote the full range, only those that will generate the greatest reaction.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
Don’t know.
Don't know.
Don’t know.
No science, so can’t be shit.
Limited reporting, no idea if shit or all they’ve been given.
Antivaxxers and antimaskers don’t need encouragement to spout their shit.

I wasn’t offended by the report of some cases now in hospital.

I read it thought, yeah, that’s probably true, but it doesn’t really tell us much and carried on with my day.
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no issue with them reporting this at all. Would just like a little context.
 
inbetween said:
You have to remember that SAGE prediction models are formulated by mathematicians and shouldn't be treated as gospel. They're an indication of both best and worst case scenarios based upon the data that's available. For the rest of the data there's only assumption and that's where the error sits.

They have a job to produce these models but there's no reason to think they're meant to be exact. It's like trying to predict the weather for 3 weeks time where all you have to go off is what's happened in previous years and what's happening now.

The thing that really grinds my gears on this is the way the media report it as "scientists say X could cause X deaths" when that isn't true. Epidemiological forecast models are not science, they're just statistical forecasts by mathematicians.
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I'm a statical mathematician by training.
I and many others in my profession think the models are shit. Worse they do nothing to correct them with each wave.
It does science no favours at all.
 
inbetween said:
You have to remember that SAGE prediction models are formulated by mathematicians and shouldn't be treated as gospel. They're an indication of both best and worst case scenarios based upon the data that's available. For the rest of the data there's only assumption and that's where the error sits.

They have a job to produce these models but there's no reason to think they're meant to be exact. It's like trying to predict the weather for 3 weeks time where all you have to go off is what's happened in previous years and what's happening now.

The thing that really grinds my gears on this is the way the media report it as "scientists say X could cause X deaths" when that isn't true. Epidemiological forecast models are not science, they're just statistical forecasts by mathematicians.
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Correct but I'd also add that they're not mathematicians they are biological scientists who know a bit of stats
 
Gabriel said:
They have to be interpreted cautiously. Weekend figures tend to be patchy and there have been numerous technical hiccups, so we cannot hold too much stead in daily figures either way. Apparently, Wednesdays and Thursdays tend to be a better indicator, though that information was anecdotal. The price of PCR tests is set to drop in South Africa now, so that may lead to more people being tested and affect the numbers we see.
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The last week numbers are the current week so far so you have to be very careful using the data.
 
BlueAnorak said:
I'm a statical mathematician by training.
I and many others in my profession think the models are shit. Worse they do nothing to correct them with each wave.
It does science no favours at all.
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Exactly they probably are but health officials know that and don't tend to weigh them above all else, it's only really the media that have done that. The government has put caution above everything else with the new measures because of what happened last year as opposed to following the models.

The funniest thing though is if a model came out tomorrow showing that everything will be fine then they'd publish that as well despite knowing they published something saying the opposite the week before.

It's all about likes and clicks and that's it.
 
Marvin said:
Largely mild because by now most South Africans have 'seen' the virus, or mild because it's less virulent? I can't say but I know the difference. i am not interested enough to search who said what. What's more interesting is what is happening, and to know how serious a problem we are facing.
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Quite.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
In my local Morrisons it’s probably 90% customers wearing masks, and maybe 10% of the staff.
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Local Asda (Hurst Cross in Ashton, frequented by a lot of tossers) probably same staff wise but I’d say about 75% of customers don’t wear a mask. I said to a lad during lockdown it’s a disgrace why they weren’t enforcing mask wearing, he said there was nothing they could do. I said (verbatim) “ it would help if you lot fucking wore one”. I didn’t go in for a few months after that.
 
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