Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
Proof is for mathematics and whisky.

Evidence is here


Including sensitivity analysis vs assumptions.

Have a ball.
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I do not understand the maths in here but I do know that Roubaix does so I am certainly not going to call him out as he thinks the more pessimistic option has to be planned for. That would be a bit like scrapping all your war planes when Hitler invaded Poland on the argument so far there is no evdence he will come after us.

IN a war you plan for the worst and hope for the best, not plan for the best and then risk reaping the worst. And we ARE in a war. Just not sure if it is 1939 or 1945 yet. And no way should we wait for America to come and win it for us when they realise it might effect them too.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
We've been over this. You refuse to accept the words of the report and claim they mean something different to what they state
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You refused to acknowledge that the predictions of the report are clearly wrong and based your defence of the report on caveats and get out clauses. Its pretty poor to be honest. I think your better than this.

Do you want me to put the numbers up again and ask you try and explain why the report wasnt incorrect despite the predictions being orders of magnitude out? I suspect not.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
There is no such thing as proof of the future. Only evidence.
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I don’t see any evidence in that first draft report that is not peer reviewed.

I see real world reports of real world experiences of the Omicron variant and I don’t see anything to suggest that report or the numbers being quoted are anywhere near correct right now.

I share the scepticism around the modelling.

Get your vaccinations, get your booster and get on with life.
 
cleavers said:
The problem here is that the number of cases at the moment are still vastly "delta" cases, and they are relatively flat, but within that number, "if" the new variant is doubling every 2 days, it goes 6, 12, 25, 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3000, 6000, 12000, 25000, 50000, 100000, in 15 days, and we only knew about this variant really about 12 days ago (yet is was likely already here), and as it was at about 6 at that point, the new variant is currently still in the background noise of delta, but it won't be for much longer if the scientists are correct.

That is just case numbers, and we have no way of knowing yet how many are going to end up in hospital, which could be 7 days behind that, or dead, maybe another 14 days behind that, or how good the vaccines will prove against, I think much of the "news" about that is still guess work, but its encouraging that SA seem to think there hasn't been a major surge in hospitalisations, whare vaccinations are well below those here.
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The experts say omicron evades almost all the antibody response from Pfizer and AZ vaccines but the T Cell response is thought to protect against infection hence those infected in SA have largely had mild symptoms. Meanwhile a 3rd dose of Pfizer should be very effective. That's based on lab work I believe.
 
Marvin said:
The experts say omicron evades almost all the antibody response from Pfizer and AZ vaccines but the T Cell response is thought to protect against infection hence those infected in SA have largely had mild symptoms. Meanwhile a 3rd dose of Pfizer should be very effective. That's based on lab work I believe.
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Hardly anyone there has had a vaccine. Something like 80k deaths as well out of 60 million, so gives you an idea of how many have caught it for natural immunity.
 
Is it just fortune that we chose to use Pfizer for the boosters many weeks ago before Omicron appeared or did we know things ahead of Omicron appearing? Or is it just good luck we guessed right.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Hardly anyone there has had a vaccine. Something like 80k deaths as well out of 60 million, so gives you an idea of how many have caught it for natural immunity.
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I saw an SA immunologist on BBC news saying that around 75% of the population had antibodies but that unlike the UK it was largely acquired from previous waves.
 
Covid level raised to 4 in UK today.

A tidal wave of Omicron coming and 2 doses of vaccine not enough. You need the booster. He says.

We have patients in hospital with Omicron now. He adds. Everyone 18 and over will now get the booster by the new year as it is now an emergency.

All over 18 who had the second jab 3 months ago can get the booster from tomorrow.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
You refused to acknowledge that the predictions of the report are clearly wrong and based your defence of the report on caveats and get out clauses. Its pretty poor to be honest. I think your better than this.

Do you want me to put the numbers up again and ask you try and explain why the report wasnt incorrect despite the predictions being orders of magnitude out? I suspect not.
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I'm bored of your poor reading comprehension tbh.
 
Healdplace said:
Covid level raised to 4 in UK today.

A tidal wave of Omicron coming and 2 doses of vaccine not enough. You need the booster. He says.

We have patients in hospital with Omicron now. He adds.
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Hate that last line, what does it even mean. Clearly designed to try and scare people into having a jab/booster.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Hate that last line, what does it even mean. Clearly designed to try and scare people into having a jab/booster.
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If facts scare people into that it is the facts to blame not the words as they are presumably just a statement of reality.

I am amazed anyone would even need to be 'scared' into escaping from a burning building blazing away next door in case it spreads to your house next. Who would tell their family - stay where you are - I have a watering can to put it out if the fire gets to us. Fire engines are not necessary.

Boosters are sensible precautions for a looming emergency that may hopefully never happen. No more. No less.
 
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Healdplace said:
I do not understand the maths in here but I do know that Roubaix does so I am certainly not going to call him out as he thinks the more pessimistic option has to be planned for. That would be a bit like scrapping all your war planes when Hitler invaded Poland on the argument so far there is no evdence he will come after us.

IN a war you plan for the worst and hope for the best, not plan for the best and then risk reaping the worst. And we ARE in a war. Just not sure if it is 1939 or 1945 yet. And no way should we wait for America to come and win it for us when they realise it might effect them too.
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Whilst we are ‘planning for the worst’ we are presuming that Covid is the worst and lockdown is then the answer. There must be a recognition that the consequences of Covid are very possibly going to be felt for years and generations to come. I’m very happy to plant a tree that I’ll never see fully grow, but when we’re sacrificing our new trees to save the much older diseased trees, I have a problem.
I also have a huge issue with the NHS seemingly having enough capacity to plan for vaccinating 5 year olds but likely won’t see the same child (or many other people for that matter) with a worrisome lump on their body.

Finally, everyone seems to have forgotten the NHS normally has a winter crisis exacerbated by between 1000 and 1200 admissions a day for respiratory viruses, between november and February, usually peaking in December every year.
Once again, we’ve got NO flu in the country so our admissions through respiratory viruses are 40-50% lower than usual and yet the NHS is about to be overwhelmed. 11 years of austerity, disbanding public health, savagely cutting beds and having a care system more inclined to profiteer and send those profits off shore is far more responsible for overwhelming the NHS than covid is, whatever the people in charge say.
 
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