Coronavirus (2021) thread

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tonea2003 said:
so for xmas and boxing day you can run riot. its bonkers mate
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There has to be some give and take though eh. A highly transmissible virus but at a time when people's mental health would really suffer if everything was cancelled and the point in doing everything asked would be called into question. Guidance is about right imo. If people don't want to celebrate Christmas together then that's fine, but letting others do so whilst highlighting the risks is probably the only sensible choice here.
Saddleworth2 said:
We had a present swapping family gathering on Sunday planned for 4 households so that has put a damper on that. I know its guidance rather than law but I feel it should be followed. I wish to hell we knew if this version is milder.
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Just my opinion which obviously counts for nothing but I'd be going ahead with your plans without even giving it a second's thought.

Negative lat flows before hand, no symptoms, vulnerable people in that group jabbed then go for it. As I say, that's just my opinion.
 
Gabriel said:
Yes, closing those routes for nineteen days certainly seemed to do the trick. Wonder if anyone bothers to calculate the negative impact on their economies?...
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I'm guessing that we didn't know anywhere near as much about it 19 days ago as we do now so it was logical to do what we did, when previously this government has (rightly IMO) been accused of not reacting quick enough.

I'm hoping the lifting of the travel ban on these countries is because this is indeed a far milder strain, and to be fair the reports coming out of SA and elsewhere do lean towards that.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
When you’re told there’s a super spreader coming out of a country who’s severity is unknown, what else can a government do?
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South Africa informed us about the virus and has informed us repeatedly about the state of play on the ground; its media (mainstream and social) is full of people bemoaning the ostracism and harm of our closing those air routes. As they point out, we already had it circulating in Northern Europe and had it coming from other European countries, but we didn't bother closing routes to those countries.
 
marcus said:
My nanna who is 92 and in a home has just received the news that therell be no visitors and no days out to visit family til

fuckin barbaric

if you agree with that tten youre a weirdo
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awful news mate, from the care home point of view - they surely have to do what they can to protect an outbreak in the home ?
 
Gabriel said:
South Africa informed us about the virus and has informed us repeatedly about the state of play on the ground; its media (mainstream and social) is full of people bemoaning the ostracism and harm of our closing those air routes. As they point out, we already had it circulating in Northern Europe and had it coming from other European countries, but we didn't bother closing routes to those countries.
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SA haven’t done anything wrong. They were just the epicentre of the latest mutation which took off like wildfire. I guess the government were trying to limit how many people came here with it to slow its progress, giving scientists time to analyse its virulence.

If we had a proper policy on people returning to the country, then we’d not need to close off countries, but we don’t.
 
Marvin said:
It's good that the majority of people will experience a milder illness than before but its still going to cause a lot of problems in a very short period of time. There's going to be an absolute avalanche of mild illness and in amongst it some people are going to get seriously ill.
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True but that's the case with other 'Winter illnesses' too. Not really a reason to take drastic measures if it is as mild as South African doctors seem to suggest. I'm fairly optimistic about it at the moment.
 
bluetonium said:
Any idea when the lateral flow tests will be available again? Three of us taking them and have 7 left, the pharmacies around here have none, can't order online and even where I had the vaccine yesterday had none.

At this is rate going to have to test less often if we want any kind of Christmas with family. Frustrating as we've been regularly testing twice a week for months and no supply issues, feels like now everyone who couldn't give a fcuk previously has nabbed them all.

Maybe that is the key, tell everyone that 'face nappies' are short and they'll all suddenly have several.

Although getting them to wear them correctly is another challenge, even my 5 yo loudly asked at the school drop off this morning if 'that man' doesn't know how masks work because his nose is poking out.
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Just ordered some looks like back in stock.
 
Marvin said:
Depends who you listen to. The illness people are experiencing is less severe than hitherto because people in general have more resistance but I suspect that this virus is just as virulent as before which means that when it works its way up to the older age groups we are going to have a lot of problems.

It's good that the majority of people will experience a milder illness than before but its still going to cause a lot of problems in a very short period of time. There's going to be an absolute avalanche of mild illness and in amongst it some people are going to get seriously ill.
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If you and that rubixcube fella are having a xmas do … please dont invite me. Be swinging from a bridge within half an hour

;)
 
M18CTID said:
I'm guessing that we didn't know anywhere near as much about it 19 days ago as we do now so it was logical to do what we did, when previously this government has (rightly IMO) been accused of not reacting quick enough.

I'm hoping the lifting of the travel ban on these countries is because this is indeed a far milder strain, and to be fair the reports coming out of SA and elsewhere do lean towards that.
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See comments from Moderna Medical officer to science and technology committee. I just picked it at random from a newsfeed I read but this I think will turn out to be right.


“I do not think Omicron is a milder, less severe version of the current virus. The idea it will push Delta out of the way and take over may occur in the future, but I think in the coming months these two viruses are going to co-exist, and Omicron, which I would maintain is actually a severe disease, will now infect people on a background of very, very strong Delta pressure.

It will also lead to a situation where individuals will become co-infected … which gives the opportunity for this virus to further evolve and mutate which is a concerning and worrying situation.
We certainly don’t have to panic, we have many many tools at our disposal, we’ve learnt so much about this virus over the last two years, and we can continue to fight it, but I think Omicron poses a real threat.
When you look at the data in SA about 15% of people who are hospitalised are in the intensive care unit, and while there’s variability, if you look back earlier in the year, at a time of delta surge in August, those numbers are about the same, 15%.
So while the mortality rate we are seeing right now is mercifully lower, I think as a disease it is a very fit virus and it’s severe.
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Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
Anxiety is awful. Diazepam is your friend. Just knowing you have some in just in case, is often enough to calm you down.
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Thankfully I've never needed medication as I haven't suffered badly from it and not really at all anymore. Most of my previous episodes were a cycle where you think about something and then almost make yourself ill thinking about it...... I've learnt to nip that cycle in the bud which has really helped.

If I ever feel under the cosh I just do something different like have a trip to the lakes or whatever at the weekend, getting outside into nature really does wonders.

For men mental health is a huge issue so even as a football forum this is a great outlet for many I'm sure. The pandemic is bound to have worsened mental health so I hope others know that they can talk on here if they need to, especially if they're concerned about COVID.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
SA haven’t done anything wrong. They were just the epicentre of the latest mutation which took off like wildfire. I guess the government were trying to limit how many people came here with it to slow its progress, giving scientists time to analyse its virulence.

If we had a proper policy on people returning to the country, then we’d not need to close off countries, but we don’t.
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The other southern African countries were not the epicenter, yet they also fell foul of British policy. If it had wanted to keep it out for as long as possible, then it could have followed China's and Israel's policies.

I still don't think we have grasped quite how transmissible this variant is and how there really is little that can be done to stop it from spreading. The Standard is reporting that it already accounts for 50% of cases in London, so it'll probably be dominant across the country by Friday.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Another unreferenced set of numbers, and even if right (they're not) you've been asserting 3.5.

Why do you do this, when even according to your own unreferenced belief, that's right at one end of the possible spectrum?
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Why do you always cry wolf?
Cases doubling every 3 5 days till Saturday when it decreaswd to doubling every 2 days.
What are the reasons for this change? Superspread events like football mache's for example?
Calculated infections are rediculously high compared with actuals? Why is this? Could it be that severity is really, really low? Or is previous infection/vaccination providing some immunity?
We need a lot more data before making any sort of conclusion - at least anothet two weeks - and it is so infectious, It might be all done and dusted by then.
 
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BlueAnorak said:
Why do you always cry wolf?
Cases doubling every 3 5 days till Saturday when it decreaswd to doubling every 2 days.
What are the reasons for this change? Superspread events like football mache's for example?
Calculated infections are rediculously high compared with actuals? Why is this? Could it be that severity is really, really low?
We need a lot more data before making any sort of conclusion - at leas anothet two weeks - and it is so infectious, It might be all done and dusted by then.
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Just stick a few caveats in your posts and use a word like likely and I think you will find whatever you post will always be right, no matter how wrong you are ! ;-)
 
BlueAnorak said:
Cases doubling every 3 5 days till Saturday when it decreaswd to doubling every 2 days
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Another unreferenced assertion.

And it's near impossible for two points to affect a steady trend in that way, and the trend has actually changed in the opposite way to which you've said (case growth has reduced, not increased)

I literally posted a tutorial by a professor on how to calculate trends and the UKHSA assessment of the trend.

You *claim* to me a statistical modeller of some sort IIRC?
 
Get a room you two :)

what we can say for sure. Its moving fast. very very fast. In a 7/10 days time its not gonna really matter if its 2 or 3.5 days in the grand scheme of things.
 
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