Coronavirus (2021) thread

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HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:


A good fall of 83 - exactly the same as last Tuesday in England patients in hospital. And over 100 in the UK taking that total to just over 1500 in all 4 nations.

Ventilators fell by 12 in England and 16 in the UK.


In the England regions only modest falls but Yorkshire had the best day with now under 200 in hospital. North West almost made it at 202.

And North West unfortunately with South East the only two region to increase ventilated patients. But only very slightly.

The NW was last lower in patients on 13 September - ahead of the national picture. They were last lower on ventilators on 15 September - also ahead of the national numbers.




UK total:


Patients down to 1539 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 37, 709 in 99 days) :- lowest since 20 September

Ventilators down to 214 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3863 in 93 days) : lowest since 22 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS
:-

107 Covid admissions following 99, 124, 92, 126, 98, 138, 112. in the week before.



PATIENTS:-


Patients down by 83 to 1310 v 1649 last week :- lowest since 21 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 026 in 99 days)

Ventilators: down 12 to 196 v 273 last week :- lowest since 23 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3540 in 93 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week



East down 3 to 140 v 181 // stays at 14 v 15

London down 8 to 368 v 439 // down 5 to 80 v 107

Midlands down 15 to 237 v 300 // down 8 to 34 v 50

NE & Yorks down 25 to 194 v 270 // down 1 to 27 v 41

North West down 15 to 202 v 264 // UP 1 to 27 v 37

South East down 3 to 120 v 124 // UP 2 to 11 v 16

South West down 14 to 49 v 71 // down 1 to 3 v 7
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.




Bolton 54 / 54 / LEVEL Testing positive 9.1%

Manchester 42 / 50/ DOWN 8 Testing positive 9.6%

Trafford 41/ 29 / UP 12 Testing positive 7.0 %

Salford 38 / 29 / UP 9 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 37 / 53 DOWN 16 Testing positive 9.7%

Rochdale 31 / 45 / DOWN 14 Testing positive 9.6%

Tameside 29 / 33 DOWN 4 Testing positive 8.1%

Stockport 23 / 27 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 7.1%

Bury 22 / 33 / DOWN 11 Testing positive 9.0%

Wigan 21 / 28 / DOWN 7 Testing positive 8.9%


The lowest three boroughs starting to cut a little adrift separated by just 2 in the low 20s all going down.

Trafford has been climbing the ladder from best of them all in past week or two and in heights it has not touched in a while. Almost went above Manchester today which would have been unimaginable not that long ago.

Bolton starting to look isolated up top though its Pop Score has only moved between 44 and 54 in two weeks. Problem is other boroughs are doing better - notably Manchester - hence why these two are now jostling for top - expected of Manchester given its size but not Bolton.
 
On top of yesterday's run I went back to the gym in the first time in over a year.
As with the first vaccine and my return to running I had a bit of an emotional moment.
Lots of careful steps taken in my gym (although I did feel a pang of guilt going back in, but my daughter really wanted to return and given her mental struggles without all this I headed in).

This was my mental buoyancy before the pandemic after some awful few years battling my own black dogs, so here's hoping this really is the new dawn.
 
little update since my last graph 2 weeks ago - positive cases by test type in England only (date of specimen). no real effect seen since the pubs opened. LFD results really kicking in for some reason, though it remains to be seen whether it is just another gentle crest like mid to late March.

plenty on the BMJ about the troubles of using LFD in a home setting, and perhaps how the lower prevalence rate actually might work in their favour. Either way, without a confirmatory PCR I am against them.

View attachment 15242
Really helpful graph, thanks; shows how cases virtually flat.

Although it's only two weeks since pubs and shops re-opened it's likely those first couple of days and weekend saw the biggest risks to an increase in cases (big queues, longest drinking sessions) but they've had little impact on numbers and hospitalisation continues to fall.

Great news.
 
Joe Rogan blowing up Twitter by apparently telling young people not to be vaccinated.
I bet you many, many conspiracy theories are emboldened by his shows.
He does have a broad range of guests to be fair (lots of brilliant scientists amongst the UFO hunters).
 
Just out of interest, what are peoples thoughts about major events taking place I'm the UK this summer? I'll be honest and say that I just couldn't see any way that restrictions would be lifted on 21st June to allow things like concerts and sporting events to go ahead with full crowds. I thought there'd have to be loads of caveats and restrictions on things that wouldn't allow it but as things get a bit closer I'm now not so sure. I won't go as far as saying I'm optimistic that things will be back to normal by July but from a UK point of view I'm starting to struggle to find reasons why they won't!
 
Just out of interest, what are peoples thoughts about major events taking place I'm the UK this summer? I'll be honest and say that I just couldn't see any way that restrictions would be lifted on 21st June to allow things like concerts and sporting events to go ahead with full crowds. I thought there'd have to be loads of caveats and restrictions on things that wouldn't allow it but as things get a bit closer I'm now not so sure. I won't go as far as saying I'm optimistic that things will be back to normal by July but from a UK point of view I'm starting to struggle to find reasons why they won't!
It's being widely reported today that the NHS app will be used to confirm your vaccination, test or having had Covid status. Grant Shapps is quoted as saying it is being looked at now with a view of having it in place by early summer for foreign travel.
 
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