Coronavirus (2021) thread

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marcus said:
Its horrible mate. She has
dementia but fully understands being locked up. She degenerated quickly being locked away and blossomed when she was allowed out with us all
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sad all round that, hopefully this time round more can be done to allow visitors
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Just stick a few caveats in your posts and use a word like likely and I think you will find whatever you post will always be right, no matter how wrong you are ! ;-)
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At least I try to be optimistic. ;-)
The calculated infections to actual cases ratio is rediculously large.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Another unreferenced assertion.

And it's near impossible for two points to affect a steady trend in that way, and the trend has actually changed in the opposite way to which you've said (case growth has reduced, not increased)

I literally posted a tutorial by a professor on how to calculate trends and the UKHSA assessment of the trend.

You *claim* to me a statistical modeller of some sort IIRC?
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Give over. You yourself showed evidence that there were 200k Omicron infections a day, yet there were only 1576 Omixron cases yesterday.
That would indicate 0.8% of the population would catch it and show symptoms or 532k cases max.
We need lots more data before coming to a any conclusions.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
Yeah, so if they are going to try to restrict at Xmas, it’ll be announced as close as they can to the day.

People will still mostly ignore it though.
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absolutely they will just like last year, and the ve parties and all together clapping for heroes on westminster bridge,
scousers celebrating their title win damaging the liver building etc
 
tonea2003 said:
so anyone can keep bringing it into our country because we already have it is that what you are saying?
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Until a new variant is detected or we get it under control, Yes.

to use your analogy of water. Allowing planes from these countries would be like turning on a garden sprinkler when you have just started to be hit by a tidal wave. the water from your sprinkler will make literally no difference to the end result if its on or off.
 
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tonea2003 said:
absolutely they will just like last year, and the ve parties and all together clapping for heroes on westminster bridge,
scousers celebrating their title win damaging the liver building etc
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That’s where us City fans have more class. If we win the title this season, I won’t be damaging the Liver Building. I’ll stick to damaging my liver instead ;)
 
What's our highest ever daily case count? Don't want to be doom and gloom but this wave feels like the worse yet but maybe that's because this time I just happen to know quite a lot of people personally who have caught it.
 
I posted about the assessment of excess death by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries yesterday and find it interesting that their latest pandemic summary indicates no more than ~5k of excess deaths in the England and Wales since week 5 2021.

Mortality monitor | Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The CMI publishes regular analyses of mortality in England & Wales:
www.actuaries.org.uk www.actuaries.org.uk

Not indicative of a UK pandemic, really.
 
bugsyblue said:
What's our highest ever daily case count? Don't want to be doom and gloom but this wave feels like the worse yet but maybe that's because this time I just happen to know quite a lot of people personally who have caught it.
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It won’t be anywhere near as bad hopefully given most of the population are vaccinated and the new variant is fingers crossed a milder illness apparently. We may go over cases but whereas last winter people like me were dying, I’m positive and now just waiting for City to start on tele.
 
Bluewonder said:
I posted about the assessment of excess death by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries yesterday and find it interesting that their latest pandemic summary indicates no more than ~5k of excess deaths in the England and Wales since week 5 2021.

Mortality monitor | Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The CMI publishes regular analyses of mortality in England & Wales:
www.actuaries.org.uk www.actuaries.org.uk

Not indicative of a UK pandemic, really.
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As I've said before, we will test ourselves into a crisis in this country.

If this was so contagious that literally everyone gets it over the next month, even if it was totally harmless EVERY hospitalization and EVERY death would go down as a covid death due to the 28 day measurement.

How do we peer through the fog? Is it a case of looking at total number of patients actually in hospital? Yet that measurement is always through the roof at this time of year anyhow. It's really difficult to see how this ends.
 
bugsyblue said:
What's our highest ever daily case count? Don't want to be doom and gloom but this wave feels like the worse yet but maybe that's because this time I just happen to know quite a lot of people personally who have caught it.
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Case count isn't really that important. It's those needing hospital treatment and deaths that are the important figures now IMO.
 
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