Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Alan Harper's Tash said:
I know, mate. I think we’ve reached the stage where some people are struggling to cope with reading about such things.
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I suppose if I thought such things could only ever happen in a Hollywood movie then I'd thing every restriction was an overreaction and fearmongering as well. We are lucky to have lived in a part of the world and a part of human history where such things seem unimaginable, I guess.

What ever happens, though, let's all agree this looks to be covid's last stand, and there is lots of good news on jabs and boosters doing their jobs. So if it is a shite January that should hopefully be the end of it.
 
Brightwell Bros. said:
I suppose if I thought such things could only ever happen in a Hollywood movie then I'd thing every restriction was an overreaction and fearmongering as well. We are lucky to have lived in a part of the world and a part of human history where such things seem unimaginable, I guess.

What ever happens, though, let's all agree this looks to be covid's last stand, and there is lots of good news on jabs and boosters doing their jobs. So if it is a shite January that should hopefully be the end of it.
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That’s the best case scenario, yes. Let’s hope it comes to pass.
 
hilts said:
You know I get this I’m teetering myself but the one thing that won’t allow me to is - we know our govt are crap but the whole world to one degree or another is following a similar path. All these politicians and scientists etc can’t have all gone mad or have shares in vaccine producers.

Every life has a price I have said this from the beginning I’m still not sure what that price should be. Should we let someone die to help a kids education, should we let someone die to save a pub. I would like someone to honestly say listen I think this number of deaths is acceptable to save a countries economy. Let’s have it.
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To answer your question of how much is a life worth a good starter for ten would be looking at the HSE societal cost of a workplace fatality which in 2018 was £1.75m per fatality. For roads it’s around £2m for preventing a fatality.
So if you can demonstrate that you would have to spend disproportionately more than £2m for each life saved then you could demonstrate that the risk is as low as reasonably practicable.
The cost of the pandemic in the UK is around £410bn so about £6k for every person. Based upon £2m per person it would need to have saved 205000 lives which is maybe believable.
Of course there is a flaw in these figures, as whilst the value of £2m is appropriate for preventing a fatality, bodies like NICE who license potential life saving drugs only work on a figure of around £40k per person.In that case it would need to have saved over 10m people which by anyones estimates it certainly won’t have.
Looking for an acceptable number deaths really isn’t the right approach it should be loss of life years based upon average life expectancy in the uk. Sadly Covid produces a figure which is about 6 times worse than Flu with respect to this, I.e more dying at a younger age.
 
Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
These positive tests will just be the tip of the iceberg. Loads won’t be getting tested and will have it. It’s pointless trying to do anything about it now other than keep fingers crossed it’s milder than Delta. I can’t see them fully locking down again. 2 years on and we are at this stage. I thought it would be done and dusted within a year ! How wrong can you be.
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Was always likely mate. Spanish flu took 3 years to fuck off and did so by mutating to a less severe variant.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
I should imagine many in the NHS working tirelessly trying to save lives in ICU will be wanting the same
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Was chatting to my best mate and his wife on zoom last night. She’s a consultant anaesthetist for the NHS and her words were to the effect of “let it run through and burn out or were going to be stuck in this rut for years”. She also had some choice words for anti-vaxxers begging for a vaccine as they were about to be intubated and said she “ran out of sympathy for those idiots about six months ago”.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
John Burn-Murdoch latest analysis.

TL;DR It's complicated, much uncertainty, but maybe pointing towards lower end of the potential impacts.

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Haha, morning chap. Was just reading @Gaylord du Bois post one above which funnily enough is the same story, and my immediate first thought was that you usually post JBM’s tweets. Lo and behold it appears. Definitely on the good side of news anyway.
 
Brightwell Bros. said:
The main thing with covid is that there is a number of cases, and I don't know what that number is but it exists, where it collapses the health care. We are all lucky enough to have lived in an era where we don't know what that looks like, but it's mass graves, ambulances not turning up to crashes on the motorway, people dying of heart attacks on the kitchen floors and having to be covered for days until the undertakers have capacity to do something. It doesn't matter if you believe in covid or not, there is a number that exists where that happens, and we have been closer to that number than some of us would like to admit. At that point it really doesn't matter about ideology or talking tough or prioritising the economy: that is a number we want to avoid. If there are restrictions, it will be to avoid those scenarios.
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That's a really good post. As usual, some people seem to taken this as an excuse to take the p*** out of people but I get where you are coming from.

When it comes to history, most of us don''t look beyond the last hundred years or so and in many cases, any further back than the second world war. The point is, just because something hasn't happened in the last 70 years doesn't mean it can't happen again. Just because we've lived in a era of generally available medicine and hospital beds doesn't mean we always will.

For the record, I don't think we will reach a point where people are dying in the streets, but the argument that there is a number of daily hospital admissions that will cause the system to break down is very real. To look at this week's hospital figures and say that we are nowhere near that point is true but also disingenuous.

Rapidly rising cases, plus two weeks of increasing social contact will put us in a much worse place come 6 or 7th January. A much milder variant but that doubles every two days can lead to some huge case numbers that can still do a lot of damage - that seems to be the point some are missing.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
John Burn-Murdoch latest analysis.

TL;DR It's complicated, much uncertainty, but maybe pointing towards lower end of the potential impacts.

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Seems the vast majority of experts are saying the same, but none are willing to nail their hat on it, which is understandable.
 
Rammy Blue said:
Nice to hear that independent sage are calling for an immediate 10 day firebreak lockdown.
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Neil “Professor Lockdown” Ferguson will be in all the papers making sure nobody forgets him.

Coming soon to a book shop and lecture hall near you.

Maybe even a one to one interview in the Mail, ‘At Home with the Lockdowns’.
 
Not been funny or anything, but surely for a virus that is spreading and doubling every 2 days nothing less than a 3-6 month lockdown is gonna do if hospitals are gonna be overwhelmed regardless of boosters ? I’ve reads reports on us going into a lockdown immediately after Christmas until the end of January. Whilst that will relieve some pressure that seems no where enough to overturn all this. Fail to see how it won’t last fucking ages longer than that. Could be no indoor footy for fans until next august if we’re lucky.
 
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