I think there is a misunderstanding of the job that modellers have, modellers aren't there to express models that make the media or us feel warm inside. If a variant is milder then as the guy has said there's nothing whatsoever to see here and nothing to do so what's the point in modelling it?
They will model worst case scenarios because that informs the government on what action is needed, they need to know this because how can you plan otherwise? If Omicron turns out to be the same as Delta then that shows that they need X doctors, X capacity or else we can't cope and so we need X restrictions to help it. They then model the impact of those restrictions which gives you something resembling a plan.
However, what is the action needed if Omicron turned out to not cause any problems at all, the answer is no actions at all so what's the point in modelling it? It isn't like we're arguing to shrink health capacity if the severity of Omicron turned out to be milder, if that was the case then optimistic models would be very useful.
It needs to be remembered that the government doesn't just take a model and use that to decide if we go into lockdown or not. If that was true then at 90,000 cases per day (the highest ever) we'd be in total lockdown right now but we aren't.
That is the same thing, expressed in a different way.
It's bollocks.
As ever though, you chose to believe it because it suits you.
Sorry fella, that’s a real shame.Just tested positive. Gutted. Xmas cancelled.
Just tested positive. Gutted. Xmas cancelled.
I spoke to someone this morning whose aged mother is in the same situation. There just aren’t the staff to get the boosters into care homes, yet young people who are in considerably less danger are queuing for hours because of Government messaging.My Mum hasn't had her booster. She fell between the cracks. There will be a lot like her. SHe is in a care home. What happens when all her carers (and visitors) get ill. Multiply this thousands of times and this is where we will have problems. Any respiratory illness is serious for some.
Zee Germans now copying Le Frenche in banning UK travellers.
What the fuck is that going to achieve at this point?
I think there is a misunderstanding of the job that modellers have, modellers aren't there to express models that make the media or us feel warm inside. If a variant is milder then as the guy has said there's nothing whatsoever to see here and nothing to do so what's the point in modelling it?
They will model worst case scenarios because that informs the government on what action is needed, they need to know this because how can you plan otherwise? If Omicron turns out to be the same as Delta then that shows that they need X doctors, X capacity or else we can't cope and so we need X restrictions to help it. They then model the impact of those restrictions which gives you something resembling a plan.
However, what is the action needed if Omicron turned out to not cause any problems at all, the answer is no actions at all so what's the point in modelling it? It isn't like we're arguing to shrink health capacity if the severity of Omicron turned out to be milder, if that was the case then optimistic models would be very useful.
It needs to be remembered that the government doesn't just take a model and use that to decide if we go into lockdown or not. If that was true then at 90,000 cases per day (the highest ever) we'd be in total lockdown right now but we aren't.