Coronavirus (2021) thread

[PragueBlue]

By which you mean South African experts whose views you think support your own.

Not South African experts who think German restrictions are appropriate: “So we would do well to be very careful with this variant.”



Director of CERI: Centre for Epidemic Response & innovation, South Africa

Do you go with that expert?

I'd go with the consensus. I have no particular views of my own to support as I have to expertise or knowledge in this area.

 

[M18CTID]

I've no idea if this is right or wrong.

Do you have any evidence for this?

While he or I can’t speak for everyone of course, personal experience and what’s being reported by many others seem to back this up.

When I caught it in January, it wasn’t enough to put me in hospital but it was enough to keep me in bed for a couple of days and being too fatigued to do anything apart from go to the toilet. Oh, I also had the trots for a bit too. This time round it’s literally no more than a runny nose, a bit of sneezing, and feeling a bit phlegmy first thing in the morning. No fever, no fatigue, not even a headache to speak of. Those are all things I had first time round. From what Rammy has said, he’s been broadly similar compared to when he caught Delta in the summer. Of course, it might not just be solely Omicron that’s responsible for these milder symptoms that I, Rammy, and many others are presenting with. Previous infection and me being triple jabbed (although my booster was only last Wednesday so it wouldn’t have fully kicked in) may well be playing a part too. And no doubt that even if it gets proven beyond all doubt that it’s a lot milder, some will still sadly succumb to it.

 

[117 M34]

Bluemoon must never agree on anything; that’s the first rule of Bluemoon.

Yes we do

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

While he or I can’t speak for everyone of course, personal experience and what’s being reported by many others seem to back this up.

When I caught it in January, it wasn’t enough to put me in hospital but it was enough to keep me in bed for a couple of days and being too fatigued to do anything v apart from go to the toilet. Oh, I also had the trots for a bit too. This time round it’s literally no more than a runny nose, a bit of sneezing, and feeling a bit phlegmy first thing in the morning. No fever, no fatigue, not even a headache to speak of. Those are all things I had first time round. From what Rammy has said, he’s been broadly similar compared to when he caught Delta in the summer. Of course, it might not just be solely Omicron that’s responsible for these milder symptoms that I, Rammy, and many others are presenting with. Previous infection and me being triple jabbed (although my booster was only last Wednesday) may well be playing a part too.

Do you know you had Omicron?

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Bluemoon must never agree on anything; that’s the first rule of Bluemoon.

Agreed.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I’m not sure @BlueAnorak has ever suggested anything like that, yet that other clown has been on his case for a couple of weeks now and simply won’t shut his grid

He can have a pop as much as he wants.
Its a free country - currently.

 

[M18CTID]

Do you know you had Omicron?

No mate, but I’m making an educated guess that it is due to its ability to re-infect the previously infected far more than the other variants.

 

[SWP's back]

Marvin, that might make a few sceptics sit up and take notice but the vast majority of rabid anti-vaxxers are beyond help, due to them being so far down their rabbit holes that no amount of evidence will make them wake up and smell the coffee, short of them catching it so bad themselves that it leaves them in ICU gasping for air.

We’ve even got a couple of the idiots on this thread.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

No mate, but I’m making an educated guess that it is due to its ability to re-infect the previously infected far more than the other variants.

Sure it is likely, but not certain. a bit like the data from South Africa.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

Of course it’s still early days but the experts are saying the data looks positive so far and there hasn’t been a huge nationwide increase in hospitalisations or deaths… so why the fuck should we ruin lives by locking down?

I don't think we should lock down, yet. Lockdowns cause so much more problems for society and should only be used as a last resort imo. We are not there yet for me. They should only be used if it looks like health systems will be over loaded. I am repeating myself but i choose to isolate my self from people( except for parks at a distance and facetime, mates on ps5 etc) because my docs scared the shit out of me by saying i am in the very high risk % because of my condition. I also live with someone and she has asthma and other lung problems. We look healthy outwards but conditions mean we isolate to a large degree. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. It's a fucking nightmare.
I want Omicron to be milder more than most and cling to any post that puts a reputable link up. i only state that people should wait for scientific consensus and listen to experts. That's all. I don't think that's controversial.

 

[M18CTID]

Sure it is likely, but not certain. a bit like the data from South Africa.

Pfft ;)

 

[SWP's back]

A lab virus? For fuck’s sake, fella!

And it’s not every three fucking months for fuck’s sake. Why you keep babbling on with that horse manure is baffling. You’re not the whole world, you know? It only happens to be three months if you just happened to get your second jab of the two original vaccines three months ago or you’re classed as vulnerable, because there’s a new strain now. It’s not three months for anyone else because they had their other fucking jabs longer than three fucking months ago. For fuck’s sake, fella!

And you won’t need another jab in another three months and another three months after that and another three months after that. Why do you keep repeating this bollocks about “every three months”? You sound like an absolute tool!

This is why I can happily recommend the ignore function. It saves a lot of time, effort and crayons.

 

[Octavian]

I don't think we should lock down, yet. Lockdowns cause so much more problems for society and should only be used as a last resort imo. We are not there yet for me. They should only be used if it looks like health systems will be over loaded. I am repeating myself but i choose to isolate my self from people( except for parks at a distance and facetime, mates on ps5 etc) because my docs scared the shit out of me by saying i am in the very high risk % because of my condition. I also live with someone and she has asthma and other lung problems. We look healthy outwards but conditions mean we isolate to a large degree. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. It's a fucking nightmare.
I want Omicron to be milder more than most and cling to any post that puts a reputable link up. i only state that people should wait for scientific consensus and listen to experts. That's all. I don't think that's controversial.

I don’t disagree with any of that, I suppose how conversation goes on the internet it’s sometimes easy to end up on opposing sides without actually being.

 

[Octavian]

We haven't.

Who are u, his mrs ;-)

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

I don’t disagree with any of that, I suppose how conversation goes on the internet it’s sometimes easy to end up on opposing sides without actually being.

True. It's also in my case a way of arguing with people you don't really want to. I would probably get on with most on here im arguing with. Covid is a fucking ****.

 

[meltonblue]

The head of Spi-m specifically said they didn’t model it being milder (lower immune escape, higher vac efficacy etc)

If you’re talking about Graham Medley, then no, that’s not what he said.

I’ve already posted a link that includes the report where exactly that was modelled.

 

[meltonblue]

The models are wrong and worse still, our restrictions and possible lockdowns are based on those models.

Data was there from SA. They ignored it and even when data was creeping through here that supported the SA scientists, they ignored again and pushed through with restrictions.

It is a joke given our vaccination and booster rates.

That’s confusing two things there though. The models are not predictions, they are scenarios. The current omicron trend is fitting to one of the models they made and also considered to be highly likely, so the scenario they modelled clearly did take the right factors into account.

 

[BlueAnorak]

So here are two questions:

1. Should the non vaccinated have the same priority as vaccinated people admitted to hospital?

2. Should we lock down due to the unvaccinated being hospitalised in vast numbers (currently 80% of hospitalised Covid cases in London) or should they be advised to isolate themselves for a month to avoid the possibility of hospitalisation?

 

[meltonblue]

So here are two questions:

1. Should the non vaccinated have the same priority as vaccinated people admitted to hospital?

2. Should we lock down due to the unvaccinated being hospitalised in vast numbers (currently 80% of hospitalised cases in London) or should they be advised to isolate themselves for a month to avoid the possibility of hospitalisation?

On 2, do you think they’d actually do that even if they were asked? If they would, then no we shouldn’t lock down.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I'd go with the consensus. I have no particular views of my own to support as I have to expertise or knowledge in this area.

So do you support the views of the Centre for Epidemic Response & innovation, or do you claim there's a different consensus?

[FWIW, what consensus there is seems to me to be that the SA data is that omicron cases there are definitely milder, but it's not possible with any certainty to deconvolute immunity and other effects from intrinsic changes to the virus]