Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Another reminder to not panic. I've been incredibly guilty of fearing the worst, but stepping back from all the noise really helps. Things are good at the moment. They genuinely are. There will always be the odd bump in the road here and there, but I think we'll be fine and the vaccines will do their job.
 
frothy said:
My daughter is 43 and lives in Glasgow and still hasn't been called for her first Jab, she lives in Glasgow which was kept in level 3 because of the Indian variant it doesn't make sense
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tell her to phone the covid line scotland 08000308013 they will book one on the spot.
 
twosips said:


Another reminder to not panic. I've been incredibly guilty of fearing the worst, but stepping back from all the noise really helps. Things are good at the moment. They genuinely are. There will always be the odd bump in the road here and there, but I think we'll be fine and the vaccines will do their job.
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can you let this SAGE member know

Dr Zubaida Haque, a member of independent SAGE, has told Sky News the Indian variant could push hospitalisations back to January levels if the prime minister doesn't slow down the lifting of lockdown.

Dr Haque said it was "astonishing" that the prime minister has gone ahead with the third stage of the roadmap "given that the government didn't pass all four tests for easing their roadmap".

She added: "Now, the prime minister has a decision to make here. He's promised that he wouldn't be following dates and he would be following data.

"If he waits another month before he acts, if he waits another month before he stops the roadmap, that will devastate this country in terms of hospitals.

"Cases of the so-called Indian variant has been doubling every week in the last six weeks and have tripled last week.

"It is an extremely aggressive variant and already SAGE has told them that if we carry on the way we are at the moment, with all the relaxed restrictions, particularly the indoor mixing, we are looking at hospitalisations at the same level as the January surges. Without a doubt."
 
BlueHammer85 said:
can you let this SAGE member know

Dr Zubaida Haque, a member of independent SAGE, has told Sky News the Indian variant could push hospitalisations back to January levels if the prime minister doesn't slow down the lifting of lockdown.

Dr Haque said it was "astonishing" that the prime minister has gone ahead with the third stage of the roadmap "given that the government didn't pass all four tests for easing their roadmap".

She added: "Now, the prime minister has a decision to make here. He's promised that he wouldn't be following dates and he would be following data.

"If he waits another month before he acts, if he waits another month before he stops the roadmap, that will devastate this country in terms of hospitals.

"Cases of the so-called Indian variant has been doubling every week in the last six weeks and have tripled last week.

"It is an extremely aggressive variant and already SAGE has told them that if we carry on the way we are at the moment, with all the relaxed restrictions, particularly the indoor mixing, we are looking at hospitalisations at the same level as the January surges. Without a doubt."
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That's not SAGE btw. It's independent SAGE, whose default position seems to be whatever the opposite of the government's is. Their whole existence relies on shouting louder than others.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
Can't she just go onto the NHS website and book one? You don't need to wait for your doctor to write to you. Unless that's different in Scotland? (crazy if so..!)
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Her husband who is 45 had his a couple of weeks ago both at the same Surgery he got the text to make a appointment, but it seems to have really slowed down her friends and work colleagues about the same age are still waiting to hear
 
twosips said:
That's not SAGE btw. It's independent SAGE, whose default position seems to be whatever the opposite of the government's is. Their whole existence relies on shouting louder than others.
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ok good. i hope very much she is talking bollocks.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
can you let this SAGE member know

Dr Zubaida Haque, a member of independent SAGE, has told Sky News the Indian variant could push hospitalisations back to January levels if the prime minister doesn't slow down the lifting of lockdown.

Dr Haque said it was "astonishing" that the prime minister has gone ahead with the third stage of the roadmap "given that the government didn't pass all four tests for easing their roadmap".

She added: "Now, the prime minister has a decision to make here. He's promised that he wouldn't be following dates and he would be following data.

"If he waits another month before he acts, if he waits another month before he stops the roadmap, that will devastate this country in terms of hospitals.

"Cases of the so-called Indian variant has been doubling every week in the last six weeks and have tripled last week.

"It is an extremely aggressive variant and already SAGE has told them that if we carry on the way we are at the moment, with all the relaxed restrictions, particularly the indoor mixing, we are looking at hospitalisations at the same level as the January surges. Without a doubt."
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i think you need to be totally clear that is the view of that member of Independent SAGE (not SAGE).

that last bit is a very strong statement isn't it - "without a doubt" - although she seems to credit that certainty to SAGE, i'm not sure i've read that

edit: sorry, just seen someone else mention this
 
shemnel said:
hmmm i dunno, i'm sure someone will pick me up on this but when you get down to mid 30s, the IFR gets very small and the increased morbidity ratio for some venous and cerebral clotting doubles in AZ vaccinations, and gets higher as you go down to below 44 year olds (Danish/Norwegian cohort study). The chances of these events is still low across many jabs, but then you are comparing to an IFR that is potentially less than 0.005%. If there is another jab available, you might as well use it. I dont know, i'm not good at the medical side.
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I think the main concern though is now perhaps reflected in your last point, if there is another jab available. First doses have reached a quite low stall, for example in Scotland today there were less than 10,000. Seeing many reports of low deliveries of Pfizer and Moderna, but a possible stockpile of AZ doing nothing. If supply is too slow for Pfizer and Moderna wouldn't it be more beneficial to keep vaccinating at pace using AZ?

Again it's a matter of weighing up risk/benefit, but that's now changed since the pause due to the new variant, time to reassess perhaps?
 
The GM data today is pretty positive from whatever sense you can make out of all these minus numbers.

As in impact today - discounting Bolton as that was barely impacted by what would have been its share of cases deleted - It is on 138 anyway - down by 15 from yesterday but was likely pretty similar to that number with deletions that will have to be taken into account whatever they were.

Bolton was not the only borough to have a positive number today.

Tameside did too! It had 1 case added. In other words it had more cases today than the cases taken away.

The total of minus numbers for GM was 46 - which out of the - 102 for the region is about what you would expect.

For the record - not that it tells us much really - here are the minus numbers for today!

BURY - MINUS 3

MANCHESTER - MINUS 7

OLDHAM - MINUS 3

ROCHDALE - MINUS 5

SALFORD - MINUS 9

STOCKPORT - MINUS 12

TRAFFORD - MINUS 2

WIGAN - MINUS 5


Stockport and Salford did 'well' with the most minuses - though whether that is good, bad or indifferent your guess is as good as mine. Though I suppose it is likely the higher the minus the lower the cases were today but that is pure speculation.
 
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