COVID Data Thread

Churchlawtonblue said:
Wow big big numbers. :-(
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I think we will top 200K before this is done. Maybe even 250K

More concerning is the hospital data.

Again up a lot.

Admissions last few days: (2 days old recall) 1246 - 1252 - 1020 - 1281 - 1374 - 1751

England patients: Up from 9546 to 10,462 - a rise of 916 after one of 1072 yesterday - so Up 2000 (25%) in 48 hours
 
Healdplace said:
I think we will top 200K before this is done. Maybe even 250K

More concerning is the hospital data.

Again up a lot.

Admissions last few days: (2 days old recall) 1246 - 1252 - 1020 - 1281 - 1374 - 1751

England patients: Up from 9546 to 10,462 - a rise of 916 after one of 1072 yesterday - so Up 2000 (20%) in 48 hours
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Nervous times for the NHS, just got to hope that the vast majority admitted have mild symptoms.
 
London patients up the most as expected 2640 - 3024 - 3310 over those 48 hours - was 2036 last week - so a rise here over the long weekend of 65%.
 
North West in same period as above 1226 - 1392 - 1530 - was 983 last week A rise over the long weekend of a bit under 60% So similar to London.

But most areas are now escalating via Omicron hence the big patient rises over the past 48 hours

East up 809 - 925 - was 630 last wk - so up nearly 50%

Midlands up 1443 - 1687 - was 1256 - up 25%

NE & Yorkshire up 889 - 1226 - was 854 - up 45%

South East 926 - 1176 - was 830 - up 40%

South West 541 - 608 - was 491 So far the only region not showing a major uptick (though still up over 20%) AND notably was the last region to have a huge Delta outbreak before Omicron arrived,
 
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Last post until after the match.

This was the day that North West overtook London with the most cases.

23,842 (up from 20,183) V 10,960 last week.

London was as flat as it has been for a week now on 22,727 - down from 22,981 V 27,799 ;ast week.

South East is still rising though - up on 19,849 (its highest ever). East also highest ever on 16,995, Yorkshire highest ever on 13,345, West MIdlands highest ever on 12,927 and East Midlands highest ever on 11,721.

Indeed the combined Midlands region of those last 2 which the NHS uses but GOV UK splits in two is actually now higher than both London and the North West.

Soth West on 10,227 - first five figure total here and even North East more than doubled in the week to 5247


As for Greater Manchester - Wow! Though huge at 40.1% of the North West it is the lowest split in a week or more as Merseyside is now shooting up too.

9575 cases in GM - new record. It was 8662 yesterday & 4687 last week.

THREE boroughs top 1000 again.

Manchester over 2000 on 2083, Wigan a huge rise on 1235, its highest ever and Stockport on its highest ever 1187.

Moreover Stockport became the first GM borough (and as far as I know frst ever in the UK) to hve a Pop Score rise of OVER 400 in one day! Extraordinary,

Bolton and Bury had the two 'lowest' scores - 574 and 528 respectively.

And Salford's 943 took it up by 358 to become the first GM borough to enter the 23K club.

Bolton up by only 199 as you can see took over 200 points off Stockportin one day! To be the only one still in the 20K club - likely until tomorrow and now 744 in the lead over Stockport after being behind 10 days ago!
 
Greater Manchester had 40.1% of the North West total of 23,842 today - a lower split than yesterday but it has been higher still of late.

9575 - a new record for Greater Manchester - UP by 913 on yesterday.

Some really huge case numbers - THREE boroughs over 1000 cases on the same day again.

Multiple Pop Scores over 300. And Stockport with a GM record Pop Score and possibly a UK record one day Pop Score rise of over 400! Eight times what it was doing 2 or 3 weeks ago.

Another day like no other. Sadly.

MANCHESTER 2083 - Up 406 on day & 941 on week - Pop Score 374 (POP 22,621)

WIGAN 1235 - Up 372 on day & 842 on week - Pop Score 373 to enter the 22K club after just 4 days in the 21K club.(POP 22,044)

STOCKPORT 1187 - Up 145 on day & 700 on week - Pop Score 404* (POP 21,550) * HIghest Pop Score today and EVER in GM. Long gone leadership for near 2 years as best Pop in GM across the pandemic. Now miles behind Bolton in just a week of such huge numbers here.

SALFORD 943 - DOWN 89 on day & UP 314 on week - Pop Score 358 to become the first GM borough into the 23K club tomorrow (POP 23,221)

TRAFFORD 822 - DOWN 45 on day & UP 384 on week - Pop Score 346 (POP 22,462)

TAMESIDE 770 - Up 152 on day & 370 on week. Pop Score 339 to enter the 22K club (POP 22.046)

OLDHAM 764 - DOWN 26 on day & UP 535 on week - Pop Score 320 (POP 21,873)


ROCHDALE 669 - Up 81 on day & 371 on week. Pop Score 263 (POP 21,975)

BOLTON 574 - DOWN 79 on day & UP 227 on week - Pop Score 199* (POP 20,806) * Lowest Pop Score today. Only one left in 20K club for a couple of days at most anyhow. Gained a HUGE 205 on Stockport in one day to increase its lead as best in GM across the pandemic to 744 - a 1200 plus turnabout in just over a week. An event unimaginable without Omicron.

BURY 528 - DOWN 4 on day & UP 239 on week. Pop Score 277 to enter the 22K club (POP 22,160)
 
^ To be fair to Greater Manchester's figures, we do have around 40% of the North West’s population.

~7m NW population; ~2.8m GM population.
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
^ To be fair to Greater Manchester's figures, we do have around 40% of the North West’s population.

~7m NW population; ~2.8m GM population.
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Correct why I always say that the par is around where it is today. And refer often to being above or below par in my posts.

I mean by par relative to population expectations. It has been in the 50% or above recently and was a few weeks ago in the lower 30%s

These changes help show how relatively well GM is doing V the North West and it is pretty well on a par now for the first time in a while. As Omicron arrived first here it seems but is now appearing right across the region.

Hopefully that might mean GM starts to fall first too.
 
WEEKLY POP SCORES IN GREATER MANCHESTER

Keep thinking this cannot get any worse. Then it does.

EVERY borough is way over its highest ever numbers. In fact double or treble its worst in most cases!

As of last night:



SALFORD 2077* - was 1149 last week & 393 last month *Highest ever Weekly Pop Score in GM

STOCKPORT 2055 - was 1012 last week & 395 last month The fastest climber over Christmas

TRAFFORD 1985 - was 1197 last week & 443 last month Likely to join the 2K club tonight

MANCHESTER 1933 - was 1152 last week & 310 last month As will Manchester

WIGAN 1798 - was 704 last week & 411 last month Biggest riser in past few days

TAMESIDE 1768 - was 817 last week & 374 last month

BURY 1683 - was 1019 last week & 375 last month

OLDHAM 1564 - was 652 last week & 298 last month

ROCHDALE 1495 - was 744 last week & 393 last month

BOLTON 1399 - was 705 last week & 305 last month 'Best; in GM by far and miles clear now as the lowest Pop Score across the pandemic after being behnd Stockport a week or so ago!

HOW MUCH IS THE FACT THAT BOLTON WAS THE FIRST FOCUS OF THE DELTA WAVE IN APRIL/MAY IN THE UK AND DROVE THE GM RISE UNTIL MID SUMMER A KEY IN WHY IT IS DOING SO WELL NOW WITH OMICRON? AS IT DID WITH DELTA CASES UP TO OMICRON ARRIVING TOO FOR THE AUTUMN? AND WILL THIS DEGREE OF 'IMMUNITY' LAST OR IS IT JUST DELAYING OMICRON TAKING OVER BOLTON TOO IN THE END AFTER THE OTHER NINE BOROUGHS?
 
WALES DATA

NB: CASES COVER 48 HOURS NOT JUST YESTERDAY - DEATHS ARE YESTERDAY ONLY

3 deaths - was 10 last week

21,051 cases - highest EVER report even for 2 days - was 7954 for the same TWO days last week.

The testing delays make positivity impossible to compare. But it has been VERY high.

NO HOSPITAL DATA HAS BEEN UPDATED SINCE 22 DECEMBER 'DUE TO THE (VERY LONG!) HOLIDAYS
 
FIinally we have some data from England hospital deaths covering the 6 day period 25 - 30 DECEMBER

They have - however - only released them as a single number collating them all.

IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER REGISTRATION OF DEATHS WILL HAVE BEEN VERY LIMITED OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY PERIOD WITH EXTRA BANK HOLIDAYS ADDING TO THE USUAL CLOSURES OF REGISTRARS.


TOTAL DEATHS RECORDED OVER THOSE DATES:- 365 WITH 59 NORTH WEST

THE SAME SIX DAYS LAST WEEK TOTALLED 489 WITH 59 NORTH WEST

AND THE WEEK BEFORE 474 WITH 82 NORTH WEST


Hard to judge how these really compare until we see next week as there may be a LOT of catch up deaths not registered over these long holiday breaks. But for now it does not look like there has been a big escalation at least given the cases rising as they have. Though deaths will, of course, lag that data. Henceagain waiting until at least this time next week to see more clearly any pattern.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL 365 DEATHS : OVER THE SIX DAYS OF CHRISTMAS (REPORTED DATA FOR 25 - 30 DEC)


By Region:-

East 49, London 75, Midlands 79, NE & Yorkshire 49, North West 59, South East 34, South West 20



Most by Trust:-

15 Nottingham, 13 Birmingham


North West Trusts:-

8 each in Manchester & Mid Cheshire, 7 in Salford, 6 each in Liverpool & St Helens, 4 in Bolton, 3 each in Morecambe & Tameside, 2 each in Blackpool,Pennine Acute, Warrington & Wirral AND 1 each in East Lancashire, North Lacashire, Southport, Stockport, Wigan & Christie's Manchester.


By Age:-

0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (8), 40 - 59 (45), 60 - 79 (134), 80 PLUS (177)


THE WEEKLY TOTAL FOR THE WEEK 19 - 25 DECEMBER IS 433

THIS IS DOWN FROM 508 THE WEEK BEFORE

BUT CAUTION IS NEEDED AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF LAG FROM HERE DUE TO LATE REPORTING

EVEN SO IT DOES NOT SEEM AS IF DEATHS ARE RISING MUCH IF AT ALL AS WE HEAD INTO MID WINTER
 
SCOTLAND DATA

9 deaths - was 11 last week

16,857 cases - was 6215 last week

27.1% positivity - was 12.7% last week

810 patients - up 131 on yesterday - was 540 last week

34 ventilated icu - was 36 yesterday & 38 last week

SO 50% WEEKLY RISE IN PATIENTS MUCH AS IN LONDON AND NORTH WEST IN ENGLAND BUT SO FAR (AS THERE TOO) NO SUCH RISE IN ICU VENTILATED BEDS - INDEED THERE WERE FALLS.

THOSE WOULD LAG A BIT BEHIND PATIENT RISES BUT IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH REPORTS OF OMICRON NOT REACHING THE LUNGS IN THE WAY DELTA DID AND OF COURSE WHY DEATHS MAY NOT SKYROCKET EITHER IN A WEEK OR TWO

STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THIS MIGHT BE A HUGE CASES EPIDEMIC BUT NOT ONE THAT TRANSLATES MUCH FURTHER. HOPEFULLY.
 
FIRST DATA FROM NORTHERN IRELAND IS AS EXPECTED A LITTLE LESS GOOD THAN IT WAS PRE CHRISTMAS.

HERE ARE THE NOW ALMOST 32,000 CASES OVER THE PAST WEEK - DOUBLE THE 17 K LAST WEEK

AS YOU SEE THE TRENDS CONTINUE.UNDER 20s HAVE PLUMMETED AS SCHOOLS ARE OUT.

THE 20 - 39 AGE GROUP HAS ACCELERATED EVEN MORE AND IS OVER 50% OF THEM ALL. HENCE MANY CATCHING IT BUT RELATIVELY SAFE FROM SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES REGARDLESS OF VARIANT. BUT VERY NOTABLE RISES IN THE OVER 60s - A LITTLE MORE THAN THE DOUBLING THE RISE IN CASES OVER THE WEEK WOULD BRING BY STAYING AT THE SAME PERCENTAGE.

THE OVER 60s HAVE RISEN FROM UNDER 5% TO OVER 7% - RELATIVELY STILL LOW BUT A NOTABLE CHANGE.

UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS A REASON

CARE HOME OUTBREAKS HAVE MORE THAN DOUBLED OVER CHRISTMAS. FROM 44 TO 97


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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

3 deaths - was 1 last week

4701 cases - was 3227 last week - highest ever here

31,643 weekly cases - MOST EVER - was 17,248 last week

97 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 44 LAST WEEK - BIGGEST RISE IN MANY MONTHS

303 patients - was 254 last week

24 ventilated - waa 26 last week

AS IN SCOTLAND AND IN ENGLAND SO FAR PATIENTS GOING UP BUT VENTILATORS EDGING DOWN SO FAR SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF MORE PATIENTS BUT LESS SEVERE ILLNESS BUT TOO EARLY TO BE ABSOLOUTEY SURE AS THERE WILL BE A LAG BETWEEN THESE THINGS
 
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