Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
roubaixtuesday said:
Some rambling thoughts about lessons from 2021, and what might be coming for 2022.

1. Vaccination has transformed things for the better in UK and developed world. We've failed the developing world and need to sort that with the utmost urgency.
2. Variants (delta, omicron) can change things extremely rapidly.
3. Vaccination isn't enough on it's own. It doesn't provide sufficient, durable protection to control major outbreaks. These are very likely to come, and we need to avoid lockdowns in response, and any significant restrictions if at all possible.
4. We need more routine health care and social care capacity so we can cope with peaks (this was also true pre-covid for general winter pressure)
5. We have many other weapons: ventilation, air filtration, homeworking, support for isolation, mask wearing etc. We need a proper strategy on implementing these.
6. We need an emergency response plan for new variants. That should include stockpiling antivirals, which now look very, very promising.
7. We should immediately send anyone comparing covid responses to Nazism to a re-education camp North East of Yekaterinburg.

All of this requires a huge amount of cash. But far less than not doing it.
Click to expand...
is that your mein kampf manifesto?
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Some rambling thoughts about lessons from 2021, and what might be coming for 2022.

1. Vaccination has transformed things for the better in UK and developed world. We've failed the developing world and need to sort that with the utmost urgency.
2. Variants (delta, omicron) can change things extremely rapidly.
3. Vaccination isn't enough on it's own. It doesn't provide sufficient, durable protection to control major outbreaks. These are very likely to come, and we need to avoid lockdowns in response, and any significant restrictions if at all possible.
4. We need more routine health care and social care capacity so we can cope with peaks (this was also true pre-covid for general winter pressure)
5. We have many other weapons: ventilation, air filtration, homeworking, support for isolation, mask wearing etc. We need a proper strategy on implementing these.
6. We need an emergency response plan for new variants. That should include stockpiling antivirals, which now look very, very promising.
7. We should immediately send anyone comparing covid responses to Nazism to a re-education camp North East of Yekaterinburg.

All of this requires a huge amount of cash. But far less than not doing it.
Click to expand...
In general I find your posts depressing but accurate. This is spot on.
 
Mike D said:
Whats the grip when you pass it on to someone who else who has underlying health conditions and dies?
Click to expand...

Thats life fella. Honestly some think we live with zero risk and that’s simply not the case and it’s not the answer to just lock folk away because someone might catch something and might die.

Get your vaccine, get your booster and get on with living life.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Got a reference for that?
Click to expand...
SWP's back said:
To put that 0.16% CFR for Omicron in perspective (amongst a population with only 1/3 vaccinated), normal influenza has a CFR of 0.1%. It’s amazing news.

When you then look at the assumed IFR of 0.016%, it’s then very clear that influenza is considerably more deadly than omicron (based on that real world data in RSA).

Also agree with this further down the thread:



Looks like the models are going to be way way off again.

and more good news (from the Telegraph behind a paywall but reproduced):

Covid hotspot figures show NHS may avoid being overwhelmed by omicron – here’s why – Active News – News from the UK and the world

activenews.co.uk activenews.co.uk

And the paywalled original:

Access Restricted

www.telegraph.co.uk
Click to expand...

@roubaixtuesday in response to your reply… I had to do some digging.
 
Healdplace said:
There were 22,713 in hospital in England this day last year compared to that 11,452 today. Almost exactly half.

And 1854 on ventilators in England this day last year V 782 today,
Click to expand...
Sounds good if the affects of the latest variant are filtering through to hospital admissions.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Looks like we are going to get the best possible outcome with omicron ie bad but not catastrophic.

Seems like the combination of prior immunity and intrinsically less severe illness is reducing hospitalisation by ~70% (still with large uncertainty) and now starting to get quantification of shorter hospital stays and less need for intrusive treatment too.

On top of this, it's also looking likely now that omicron is going to give good protection vs delta infection, which wasn't a given either, and is extremely good news if it pans out.

We'll see now how bad it's going to get; it seems very likely admissions will peak below last Jan and totals lower again.

Hard to know when the cases peak will be as testing capacity looks to be limiting case numbers, but London maybe about now, rest of the country in the next couple of weeks? Hospital peaks perhaps mid-late Jan??

We've been very, very lucky; there's no intrinsic reason this variant should have been less severe. It's pure chance.
Click to expand...
Indeed it is pure chance. But a chance that medics and scientists in SA were pointing out 3 weeks ago.
It really is the height of arrogance to ignore science and medicine in other countries.
OK it could have been a bit different in the UK but not the doom scenarios presented by UK SAGE virulence modelling.
Hopefully a lesson thatcwill be taken on board in future. Continually crying wolf has consequences.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Indeed it is pure chance. But a chance that medics and scientists in SA were pointing out 3 weeks ago.
It really is the height of arrogance to ignore science and medicine in other countries.
OK it could have been a bit different in the UK but not the doom scenarios presented by UK SAGE virulence modelling.
Hopefully a lesson thatcwill be taken on board in future. Continually crying wolf has consequences.
Click to expand...
Incidently it may be a bit worse on the continent and the US where the AZ vaccine was used a lot less or not at all. Studies are starting to show T-Cell memory for AZ vaccinations is a thing that doesn't happen anything like as much with mRNA.
The immunity from 20m+ Delta infections in the UK since June may also give us enhanced T-Cell immunity and this will apply to a similar degree in the US.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top