COVID Data Thread

WALES DATA

11 deaths - was 10 last week

2427 cases - was 3007 last week

17% positivity - was 20.1% last week

803 patients - was 816 last week

11 ventilated - was 20 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS


First clear signs of a steady downward track in deaths after signs of a slowing and then a stall and in past few days a small fall recently - but NW is still the most - just.

147 with 32 North West

Was 182 with 22 NW last week AND 218 with 46 NW week before.


By Region:- East 8, London 20, Midlands 31, NE & Yorkshire 31, North West 32, South East 21, South West 4

Most by trust:- 6 in South Tyneside


North West Trusts:-

5 in Liverpool, 4 in Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), 3 each in Bolton, East Lancashire, Salford & St Helens, 2 each in Manchester, Morecambe, Nth Lancashire, Tameside & Warrington AND I in Wigan.


By Age:-

20 - 39 (2) 40 - 59 (9), 60 - 79 (49), 80 PLUS (87)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

We now have completed as usual on Thursdays the last week of 5 day death totals.

The increase in falls over last two days meant the week to week drop was better than I hoped a day or two ago.

Here are the last four weeks covering the peak deaths in this wave and after.

WEEK // DAY TO DAY NUMBERS = TOTAL AT 5 DAYS FOR DAYS OF WEEK + ADD ONS SINCE 5 DAYS

JAN 02 - 08 // 92 - 104 - 121 - 124 - 127 - 130 - 131 = 829 (+ 126)

JAN 09 - 15 // 142 - 147 - 147 - 134 - 131 - 125 - 157 = 983 (+ 161)

JAN 16 - 22 // 154 - 160 - 145 - 120 - 114 - 134 - 145 = 976 (+ 126)

JAN 23 - 29 // 130 - 147 - 123 - 119 - 126 - 122 - 129 = 896 (+ 57)

Obviously add ons for the most recent week are lower mostly as they have had less time to add on but will still not reach near 161.

You can see the wave peaked in the middle of the above numbers.

Zoe has cases peaking on 11 January.

Deaths would lag a little and the day 5 peak (160) was on on 17 January which is pretty much exactly in line with that expected gap.

11 January actually also still has the peak for deaths with all add ons since (174) - though 22 January has risen from 145 at 5 days to 171 so might yet overtake it.

The 160 five day peak on 17 January is - after 16 days of add ons still only at 167.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Best news though is that critical care admissions for covid have absolutely fallen through the floor.
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Yes, long term you are absolutely right and I agree. Indeed have been posting that good news almost daily in here and the main thread as there has been an extraordinary change in icu ventilator bed occupancy over the past 6 weeks under Omicron.

This is, of course, in turn a key reason why deaths are falling. People are not requiring icu ventilation in anything like the same numbers as in previous waves.

That has been the real game changer. Partly vaccine related no doubt, partly increasing antibody from past infections but to some degree appearing to be because Omicron does not get that far into the lungs in the way Delta did. There causing terrible harm. Hence it seeming milder.

I posted a direct comparison from last year to this in the icu ventilator numbers on the other thread here (yesterday I think) which is even more dramatic in how it shows this change over the past 6 weeks or so.

The scale of the fall in all 4 nations is remarkable.

But I was in the above post refering to the key thing to note from yesterday's numbers - not being the artificial jump up in deaths that some media were focusing on - but was obscuring the wider truth that yesterday deaths were a statistical blip and the trend in deaths really now was on a clear downward path as cases and other things have been for a while.

Deaths are always going to lag cases falling, of course.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

31 deaths - was 20 last week

Cases ??? - was 4333 last week

1083 patients - 1116 yesterday & 1319 last week

29 ventilated - was 28 yesterday & 30 last week
 
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NORTHERN IRELAND CASES BY AGE RANGE

THE OVER 60S ARE NOW STARTING TO RISE COMPARATIVELY QUITE A BIT - THOUGH STILL BY FAR THE LOWEST GROUP THEY ARE TODAY UP TO 7.4% OF THE TOTAL - IT WAS JUST OVER 5% TWO OR THREE WEEKS AGO>

NOT YET AT THE 9% IT WAS PRE OMICRON LET ALONE THE OVER 20% THIS TIME LAST YEAR BUT RISING AS THE UNDER 19s FALL A LOT NOW JUST 38.7% - WAS 43% A WEEK OR TWO AGO.

THE BIGGEST AGE RA NGE NOW IS NOT THE 5 - 9s (THEY ARE ON 3484 CASES). NOW IT IS 10 - 14 ON 4106 CASES.

THE 30 - 34 AND 35 - 39 AGE RANGES (PARENTS OF THE UNDER 10S POSSIBLY) ARE NOW AHEAD OF THE UNDER 10s SUGGESTING SPREAD FROM PRIMARY SCHOOL IS EBBING BUT HAS REACHED OTHER MEMBERS AT HOME

SO THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE DYNAMICS HERE
 
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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

3 deaths - was 6 last week

4203 cases - was 4243 last week

28,163 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 28,293 YESTERDAY & 31,895 LAST WEEK

178 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS -WAS 175 YESTERDAY & 197 LAST WEEK - THIS RISE MIGHT FIGURE INTO THE OLDER AGE RANGE RISE

354 patients - was 357 yesterday & 387 last week

7 ventilated - was 10 yesterday & 18 last week

THE FIRST SINGLE FIGURE NUMBER IN THE UK IN SEVEN MONTHS
 
303 all settings deaths. Was 338 last week.

258 England. Was 302 last week.

88,171 cases - down from 92,594 yesterday (after Scotland was added)

And down 8700 from 96,871 last Thursday.

England only 77,189 - down from 81,446 yesterday & 85,288 last Thursday
 
WALES DATA

8 deaths - was 6 last week

2606 cases - was 2772 last week

16.8% positivity - was 15.3% last week

769 patients - was 803 yesterday & 816 last week

13 ventilated - was 11 yesterday & 18 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

More good signs of these falling - especially in the NW where ventilators are lowest now in nearly 8 months hence the big drop in deaths


157 with 13 North West

Was 174 with 33 North West last week & 173 with 33 North West two weeks ago



By region: East 20, london 25, Midlands 39, NE & Yorkshire 22, North West 13, South East 14, South West 24


Most by borough: 10 in King's Lynn



North West boroughs:

3 each in Bolton, Mid Cheshire & Wigan, 2 in Salford AND 1 each in Chester & Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale)


By age:

20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (10), 60 - 79 (52), 80 PLUS (94)
 
SCOTLAND DATA

17 deaths - was 16 last week

Cases 4429 - Was 3956 last week

16.9% positivity - was 16% last week

1042 patients - was 1083 yesterday & 1302 last week

27 ventilated icu - was 29 yesterday & 32 last week

Still falling in the key hospital numbers
 
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Healdplace said:
SCOTLAND DATA

17 deaths - was 16 last week

Cases??? - Was 3956 last week

16.9% positivity - was 16% last week

1042 patients - was 1083 yesterday & 1302 last week

27 ventilated icu - was 29 yesterday & 32 last week

Still falling in the key hospital numbers
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I know they bear no relevance to the uk as a whole numbers , but why not just use the case numbers .gov.scot and travellingtabby use. At least then you'd have a consistent comparison. Which is pretty flat now for 3 weeks at a 7 day average of 7000 ish.
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

1 death - was 8 last week

3833 cases - was 3737 cases last week

28,110 PAST SEVEN DAY CASES TITAL - WAA 28,163 YESTERDAY & 32,174 LAST WEEK

175 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 178 YESTERDAY & 191 LAST WEEK

359 patients - was 354 yesterday & 363 last week

9 ventilated - was 7 yesterday & 18 last week
 
blueparrot said:
I know they bear no relevance to the uk as a whole numbers , but why not just use the case numbers .gov.scot and travellingtabby use. At least then you'd have a consistent comparison. Which is pretty flat now for 3 weeks at a 7 day average of 7000 ish.
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I do want a consistent comparison as Gov UK will post what they include at 4 pm and so I will add it then.

As all past comparisons over the last 2 years are with THAT number it is the only way to have a consistent picture of week to week, month to month and year to year.

I do not fully understand the difference or why Gov UK are creating a different one not just going with what they are given by Scotland but as it has been the one I have logged for two years it will offer a direct comparison that changing to a differently derived one now would not do except from today onward. And it would make the UK total for the day not add up if I did not use the Gov UK numbers.

Hopefully we are much nearer the end of recording cases than the beginning so it makes sense to stick with what we have used right up to the end.

But by all means post that other number in here each day if it helps as it well might given what you say.
 
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254 all settings deaths - 228 in England

Last week 277 - 247 in England

84,053 cases - was 88,171 yesterday & 89,176 last week

England only 73,185 - was 77,189 yesterday & 78,711 last week


4429 cases were added for Scotland V 3956 last week
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY

Southern regions and the northern and midlands in a very clear split.



SOUTH EAST on 14,586 - DOWN from 16,552 V 15,824 last week & 15,180 two wks ago

LONDON on 10,851 - DOWN from 10,910 V 11,306 last week & 11,887 two wks ago

EAST on 8947 - DOWN from 10,403 V 10,172 last week & 10,770 two wks ago

SOUTH WEST on 8317 - DOWN from 9553 V 8891 last week & 8150 two wks ago

WEST MIDLANDS on 7219 - UP from 7190 V 7950 last week & 9799 two wks ago



NORTH WEST on 6542 - DOWN from 6983 V 7464 last week & 9375 two wks ago





EAST MIDLANDS on 5887 - DOWN from 6242 V 6564 last week & 7380 two wks ago

YORKSHIRE on 5649 - DOWN from 6438 V 7024 last week & 8121 two wks ago

NORTH EAST on 2806 - DOWN from 3311 V 3424 last week & 4847 two wks ago



The order of the regions is staying much the same every day still but the numbers are falling across the board. With ONE exception today - West Midlands - which has climbed (all be it by just 29) and is above the NW.

The south east very clearly the main area where the cases are still high. And with London seem to be where most Omicron is circulating.


North West is falling week by week - not by a lot but steadily.
 
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blueparrot said:
I know they bear no relevance to the uk as a whole numbers , but why not just use the case numbers .gov.scot and travellingtabby use. At least then you'd have a consistent comparison. Which is pretty flat now for 3 weeks at a 7 day average of 7000 ish.
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It seems to me that the Scotland figures are reasonably understandable and informative in themselves, it is only when there is a "black box" conversion as they are incorporated into the UK figures that they become a bit of a mystery.

Healdplace rightly points out that currently the more critical figures are those relating to folk in hospital, however the cases figures are helpful as harbingers of the hospital cases. In this respect there is a case for saying that the PCR positives are likely to be a better indicator than the LFD positives. The PCR results will include those who are showing symptoms and those who are considered at risk; both of these categories are, intuitively, more likely to be hospitalised than the LCD positives who will be mostly symptomless and "low risk".

The Scottish presentation, breaking down the total positives into PCR only, LFD only and both LFD & PCR, as well as giving a bit more information about the overall spread of infection also, perhaps, gives a better basis for guessing future hospitalisations. So far as I can see this kind of breakdown is not published for the England and UK figures.

Meantime, the cynic in me finds a fortuitous coincidence for those wishing to justify further relaxations that the positive cases started to decline from the 11th January when isolation on a positive LFD test only was introduced in England, Wales and N Ireland ....
 
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