COVID Data Thread

Cassandra said:
It seems to me that the Scotland figures are reasonably understandable and informative in themselves, it is only when there is a "black box" conversion as they are incorporated into the UK figures that they become a bit of a mystery.

Healdplace rightly points out that currently the more critical figures are those relating to folk in hospital, however the cases figures are helpful as harbingers of the hospital cases. In this respect there is a case for saying that the PCR positives are likely to be a better indicator than the LFD positives. The PCR results will include those who are showing symptoms and those who are considered at risk; both of these categories are, intuitively, more likely to be hospitalised than the LCD positives who will be mostly symptomless and "low risk".

The Scottish presentation, breaking down the total positives into PCR only, LFD only and both LFD & PCR, as well as giving a bit more information about the overall spread of infection also, perhaps, gives a better basis for guessing future hospitalisations. So far as I can see this kind of breakdown is not published for the England and UK figures.

Meantime, the cynic in me finds a fortuitous coincidence for those wishing to justify further relaxations that the positive cases started to decline from the 11th January when isolation on a positive LFD test only was introduced in England, Wales and N Ireland ....
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And as I have noted in the England hospital numbers for a week or two - 11 January is the peak date for deaths there at 174.

Though 22 January matched it with add ons yesterday so it may not remain the highest much longer. However, it probably will only be by the odd one or two if 22 Jan goes above 174 now. And clearly the trend was downward from 11 January onward which is what matters.

This was also the peak date in the Zoe data which has been very accurate at tracking such things. Though again cases are rising here again and might yet surpass that. Though it has some way to go to reach that point and the rise is starting to look like it may be slowing again on Zoe.

So a lot of separate measures suggest that 11 January was the point where this wave topped out supporting what you say.

As for cases and the Scotland method used now - it probably is more correct than others but as week to week and year to year comparisons are more valuable to follow than fluctuating day to day case totals which can be influenced by lab delays of a day or two bumping them up and down on any date then I am sticking with the number Gov UK post however it varies.

At least that is a direct comparison with the ones it has posted on the day or date in the past 2 years.

But I am very happy with anyone posting the case numbers as per Scotland's report each day for comparison.I just prefer to keep the ones I post as level playing field as possible with those from the past as really comparisons like that are now the only worthwhile thing about case numbers - revealing trends. The day to day numbers are not really a key metric now however you work them out. As clearly these are translating into hospital data in a very different way to how they did in the past. Creating fewer numbers - especially on the ventilator beds. Which is why deaths stay in check and are now falling well despit high cases that just mislead the public needlessly if emphasised.
 
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Here is today's ZOE graph showing cases still rising.

The upward track is not quite as steep as it was in the rise of Omicron to the peak at 2,751.127 ongoing cases which has btw just shifted back 24 hours to 10 Jan - though those 3 days round there are very close together.

Current ongoing cases are 2.460,518 - up 44,971 on yesterday which was up 43,907 the day before. The rise is here is definitely slowing day to day and hopefully may peak and reverse soon.

Ongoing predicted cases topped 200K again yesterday for first time since 8 January - a few days before the peak.

Today they are on 204,434 - up by 2074 - the rises here have been slowing too - was 3581 day before & 3710 day before that.
 
259 deaths - 232 in England - 3 in N Ireland - 24 in Scotland - Wales never report on Saturdays

Was 296 last week and 275 in England - 3 in N Ireland - 18 in Scotland

60,578 cases - was 84,053 yesterday (but all 4 nations reported then) & 76,069 last week

57,377 cases - England only - (N Ireland 3201 the only other country counted today - Wales never post numbers on Saturday and Scotland's numbers at weekend now get added rerospectively on Monday but likely to be around 4000.

England only was 73,185 yesterday & 69,137 last Saturday.

So big fall in England today. Both on yesterday & last Saturday.
 
England hospital numbers continue to be good news

Admissions (Thursday) 1292 V 1503 last week & 1698 two weeks ago

North West the biggest fall 128 V 195 V 286


The remaining data is from today


Patients down 428 to 11,604 - lowest in 37 days.

All 7 regions down by a fair number.

North West again falls the most - by 102 to 1708 V 2045 last Saturday

Ventilators down once again by 16 to 409

North West down 1 on 47.
 
Healdplace said:
England hospital numbers continue to be good news

Admissions (Thursday) 1292 V 1503 last week & 1698 two weeks ago

North West the biggest fall 128 V 195 V 286


The remaining data is from today


Patients down 428 to 11,604 - lowest in 37 days.

All 7 regions down by a fair number.

North West again falls the most - by 102 to 1708 V 2045 last Saturday

Ventilators down once again by 16 to 409

North West down 1 on 47.
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I did say months ago that infection and ICU cases are irrelevant, and have been since we shut the nightingale hospitals, they have just been a stick that the Government used to beat non jabbed, now even the Government have decided the British people are getting wise to it. A pity your dedication seems wasted but it is not a weekly total death graph based on the last four years and a similar graph hospital total beds used over a four year basis would give a lot of information.
But in the meantime, the politician that introduced masks is not facing prosecution under the trades description act, or the fact most did not have safety warnings, despite being proven to have no beneficial effects against COVID.
The Government was investigated over lock down before any evidence was available, but to be fair no one knew where COVID was going.
The chemical companies made an agreement where they are not liable for anything.
So back to 2020 1, 131,000 people died over the average 2, the average age went up 3, 76,000 people died with COVID 4, 17,000 people died of obesity 5, around 13,000 people die of the Flu 6, just less that 10,000 people died of COVID, there were plenty of other illnesses that killed more than COVID. But the problems main ones are not the difference between COVID deaths that can happen especially with a Government trying to sell a product, but the average age and the over the average deaths coupled with less than 10,000 COVID deaths tell us COVID did not kill 121,000, the only other killer that year was lock down, the denial of heath care at GPs and Hospitals for NHS patient can kill that many.
2021 the chemical companies introduced their drug with claims that initially of between 92-94% success later upgraded to 96% by the time the first dose was given to all at risk a claim of 10,000 saved a second dose was given and a third with failing figures of success as the drug is not a cure nor does it stop infection or transmission, the Government pushed on through the ages knowing from the previous year they did not need it, we passed Herd immunity % in July so that excuse is no longer on the table, we no longer have COVID first contact variant and usually the worst as it proved, so we have had first contact, South African short lived, Brazilian short lived, Delta more virulent less deadly , Omicron more virulent less deadly and now Omicron2 believed even more mild,Deaths with COVID nearly 74,000 death from COVID for the first 3/4 of the year 7,500 3/4 of the last year, there are a lot of issues with this number but on both sides. Lock down cost us over £400 billion PPE cost £8.8 billion track and trace £4 billion
sacking 40,000 care workers cost the tax payers £400 million paid to private companies.
2022 the defense minister said 90% of COVID patients in his local ICU were not jabbed, the doctor who caused a storm claimed 70% in his and a loon nurse on the BBC claimed 100%,in Canada the totals for all hospitalizations over the 3 month period had 88% COVID patients were jabbed, 6% first jabbed and just under 6% unjabbed, so who is right? well all but the bullshit BBC, who is in ICU`s the young in for accidents many of which will not be jabbed, and the old too fragile for powerful drugs, this group was boosted by the sacking of care workers which shut care homes, something that is still threatening NHS staff, and on that note we have a major question? what for if everyone gets the jab does it stop COVID? no we will still have COVID in care homes and in Hospitals we will just not have any staff to catch up the 6 million waiting list or the 1 million cancer patients.

202
 
UK DATA



Cases 54,095 - was 60,578 yesterday & 69,007 last Sunday

N Ireland 2694, Scotland unreported until tomorrow, Wales 1868 (though they today posted 2606 which is from Friday and has been backrecorded to Friday and the 1868 is from just today and as yet not reported by Wales themseles!)

England only 49,533 - down from 57,377 yesterday & 59,559 last Sunday.

THIS IS THE LOWEST CASE TOTAL IN ENGLAND SINCE 13 DECEMBER WHEN OMICRON TOOK OFF
 
Len Rum said:
Come on Healdie, need my daily numbers fix :)
(whilst watching Forest vs Leicester).
@Healdplace
Click to expand...
They were so good I was double checking them but as you see posted them at the same minute as you asked! Telepathy or what.

And me too re the match.

Almost more goals than cases
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

Good news again - though for once North West was an exception.

Admissions (Friday)

1186 V 1342 last week & 1453 week before

NW 173 V 170 V 243

Patients (Today- as are the rest of the data)

Down 75 to 11,529 - Last Sunday they rose by 320 to 12,992


Some regions were up, others down.

North West was UP 16 to 1724 V 2198 last Sunday

Biggest rise was London UP 32 to 2262

Biggest fall NE & Yorkshire DOWN 64 to 1915



Ventilators fall again - 19 days now without going up. LOWEST SINCE 8 JULY

On 391 - down 18 on the day V 457 last Sunday (then down 1)

Unfortunately again NW bucked the trend and was UP by 5 to 52 V 48 last week

Everyone else was down.
 
Best numbers in Greater Manchester in weeks. Certainly since Christmas.

THREE GM boroughs have numbers under 100. 83 the lowest (Rochdale) (v 4 weeks ago today 703)

Even a still slightly struggling Stockport under 200 at last (V 4 weeks ago today 705).

And Manchester under 300 for first time in ages. (V 4 weeks ago today 1259)

Wigan probably the biggest faller over that month from 1077 then to 138 today.
 
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WALES DATA - TWO DAYS SAT & SUN AS USUAL ON MONDAYS

9 deaths - was 11 last week

3382 cases - was 4528 last week

16.2% positivity - was 19.5% last week

768 patients (Friday) - was 816 last week

13 ventilated (Friday) - was 20 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND

Hopeful drop in deaths again here


SATURDAY:-

134 with 26 North West

Was 191 with 30 NW last week & 171 with 34 NW the week before


By Region:- East 14, London 16, Midlands 36, NE & Yorkshire 22, North West 26, South East 13. South West 7

Most by Trust:- 7 in Bedfordshire

NW Trusts: - 6 in St Helens, 4 each in Blackpool & East Lancashire, 2 each in Mid Cheshire & Tameside AND 1 each in Bolton, Chester, East Cheshire, Manchester, Pennine Acute, Salford, Southport & Wigan

By Age:- 40 - 59 (13), 60 - 79 (38), 80 PLUS (83)



SUNDAY:-

24 with 10 North West

Was 29 with 10 NW last week & 15 with 2 NW the week before


By Region:- East 11, North West 10, South West 3

Most by Trust:- in North West

NW Trusts: - 8 in Liverpool AND 2 in Stockport

By Age:- 40 - 59 (2), 60 - 79 (9), 80 PLUS (13)


MONDAY:-

24 with 14 North West

Was 19 with 9 NW last week & 19 with 10 NW the week before


By Region:- East 10, North West 14

Most by Trust:- in North West

NW Trusts: - 6 in Nth Lancashire, 3 in Blackpool AND 1 each in East Cheshire, Manchester, Liverpool, Morecambe, Salford & Christie's (Cancer unit) Manchester

By Age:- 40 - 59 (3), 60 - 79 (10), 80 PLUS (11)



TOTAL FOR THE WEEKEND 182 WITH 50 NORTH WEST

LAST WEEK 239 WITH 49 NORTH WEST & WEEK BEFORE 205 WITH 46 NORTH WEST

More good news is that the first 4 days of the new week of 5 day totals are all below the last two weeks

As follows:-

113 - 139 - 119 - 117

V 130 - 147 - 123 - 119

V 154 - 160 - 145 - 120
 
SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

Cases:- tbc later - was 1961 last Monday

23.3% positivity - was 17% last week

958 patients - was 1206 last week

23 ventilated icu - was 33 last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

2 deaths - was 3 last week

3105 cases - was 4159 last week

25,884 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 28,110 FRIDAY - WAS 29,071 LAST WEEK

182 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 175 FRIDAY - WAS 186 LAST WEEK - BIT OF A RISE OVER THE WEEKEND

362 patients - was 359 Friday & 402 last week

11 ventilated - was 9 Friday & 16 last week

WEEKLY CASES BY AGE RANGE

34.8% 19 & UNDER OVER 60s 8.1%

THE LATTER HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH THE CARE HOME OUTBREAKS & THE FORMER FALLING FROM 44% AT THE HEIGHT OF THE OMICRON WAVE WHEN UNDER 10s WERE THE HIGHEST.

THAT IS NO LONGER TRUE - THEY ARE ON 2640 - WHEREAS 10 - 15 ARE THE HIGHEST NOW ON 3248 - SO OVER A FIFTH OF ALL CASES ARE STILL BELOW 15.

THERE ARE JUST 858 OF THE 25,884 AGED OVER 70 - JUST OVER 3% - WHICH IS WHY DEATHS ARE STAYING LOW

1644244926630.png
 
45 all settings deaths - was 51 last week

England only 34 - was 37 last week

57,623 cases - was 57,337 yesterday & 92,368 last week

England only 48,601 - was 49,533 yesterday & 81, 720 last week
 
England hospital numbers

As expected and not really a surprise Monday sees a bt of a rise. But it is less than last Monday


Admissions (Saturday)

1077 (lowest since Christmas Eve) V 1325 last week & 1277 week before

North West 152 V 186 V 187


Patients (Today as is all the rest of the data)

11,710 - up 181 V last week 13,331 - up 339


Regions:- (V last week)

East up 9 to 1101 V 1248

London up 48 to 2310 V 2492

Midlands DOWN 12 to 2231 V 2526

NE & Yorkshire up 46 to 1961 V 2370

South East up 54 to 1520 V 1585

South West up 30 to 857 V 869

AND

North West up 6 to 1730 V 2241

North West has had the best seven days and lowest rise today



Ventilators: V last week

The streak ends at 19. As they rise for the first time in nearly 3 weeks.


395 - up 4 V last week 449 - down 8


Regions: - (V last week)

East down 2 to 39 V 48

London up 4 to 143 V 158

Midlands up 2 to 64 V 78

NE & Yorkshire down 6 to 49 V 63

South East up 7 to 36 V 32


AND

North West down 1 to 51 V 52
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND

Hopeful drop in deaths again here


TODAY:-

258 with 28 North West

Was 294 with 43 NW last week & 308 with 52 NW the week before

A very steady week to week fall and NW almost halved


By Region:- East 9, London 43, Midlands 75, NE & Yorkshire 49, North West 28, South East 40, South West 14

Most by Trust:- 11 in Birmingham AND 10 each in Calderdale (Huddersfield) & Dartford

NW Trusts: - 8 in Bolton, 5 in Wigan, 4 in Manchester, 3 in Warrington, 2 each in East Lancashire Morecambe & Stockport AND 1 each in Pennine Acute & Salford

By Age:- 0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (5), 40 - 59 (14), 60 - 79 (103), 80 PLUS (135)
 
WALES DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

1107 cases - was 1635 last week

19.8% positivity - was 20.2% last week

774 patients (Friday) - was 794 last week

13 ventilated (Friday) - was 13 last week
 
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