Russian invasion of Ukraine

[west didsblue]

It's "it's" not "its" by the way ;-)

Doh!!

 

[Metal Biker]

You can leave the left and right crap out with me, I don’t have time for that bollocks and I only deal in facts like Rafa :).

NATO countries invade other countries illegally, spouting bollocks like they had weapons of mass destruction, when everyone knew they didn’t, despite the invading countries having weapons of mass destruction themselves.

Russia is actively occupying part of another nation. Nothing from you on that illegal action?

NATO was set in 1949 to counter communist expansion.

Actually it was set up to protect its members against Soviet Russian aggression, not specifically communism. Nothing appears to have changed on that regard

Russia isn’t even communist any more.

No its worse, its a dictatorship with militaristic ambitions of reclaiming former Soviet "territories" it has no right to claim.

NATO countries built a missile defence system capable of shooting down your nuclear missiles, and placed them as far east as Romania.

"Your nuclear missiles?"

NATO are saying they are willing to let Ukraine join, by saying they should be free to make their own decision.

Which is completely correct. Russia has no right to prevent anyone from joining NATO. What if China wished to join NATO, would Russia invade Manchuria to create an imaginary "buffer zone"?

Russia don’t want the system which shoots down their deterrent (nukes) any closer to Moscow than it already is.

Anyone would think NATO countries intend to use their nuclear deterrent against them... which makes no sense because they're a deterrent, not an offensive strategy.

Russia probably think if our nukes are now useless, and NATO act like the way they have in the past and taken out sovereign governments and put in pro west governments, then why wouldn’t they do it to us if they could?

Aside from Iraq, what acts of "NATO aggression" has you concerned that if Ukraine becomes part of NATO and/or the EU that they'd launch an invasion of Russia? Do you honestly think that the Ukrainian Government would be in favour of having their country as the staging area for an Russian incursion?

NATO have acted aggressively to Russia, as far as they are concerned. Russia want reassurances that Ukraine won’t be joining NATO, NATO won’t give it so Russia will feel like they’re forced to put distance between NATO and Moscow via invasion.

Nobody. Wants. To. Invade. Russia! In what possible sense have NATO "acted aggressively" to Russia? Russia should be asking why does Ukraine feel the need to WANT to join NATO in the first place. NATO cannot tell another nation that they can't join if their elected government and people express a wish to want to join. That goes against everything that NATO was set up for in the first place. Ukraine fears Russian aggression, it's asked NATO for protection and help, but to qualify it must join and has expressed a wish to do so. Russia is losing its shit because after taking Crimea they feel bullish about occupying more Ukrainian territory. Who is the aggressor in this situation?!

Your sole reason for NATO not invading Russia is that they nuclear weapons. Think about that.

NATO doesn't want to invade because they're trying to AVOID war. Russia is using war as a "give me what I want or else" tactic.

 

[Chevelle]

You are sadly mistaken. Russia is seeing what they can get away with.

Invade Crimea. No consequence.

Invade part of the Ukraine. Little consequence.

Invade the rest of Ukraine - ditto.

Next, invade Poland. Just to see what happens. Hell, their previous invasions met with little pushback - so why not try Poland? What's the worse that could happen?

In fact, several Russian generals are on record that deployment of tactical, short range nuclear weapons is a good idea - the West has no appetite for war (so they think) and such deployment would lead to decisive, early victories.

Wake up! Russia is an expansionist, dictatorial nation and is precisely the reason why NATO exists in the first place.

I think if Russia occupy Ukraine they are screwed.. the Guerilla warfare will decimate their army and their economy. They will swoop in put in someone who backs Russia then leave again.. there will be a huge civil war probably (because most ukrainians hate Russia now) and it will likely be completely Russia's fault because of their insecurities of the NATO boogeyman.

 

[metalblue]

You are sadly mistaken. Russia is seeing what they can get away with.

Invade Crimea. No consequence.

Invade part of the Ukraine. Little consequence.

Invade the rest of Ukraine - ditto.

Next, invade Poland. Just to see what happens. Hell, their previous invasions met with little pushback - so why not try Poland? What's the worse that could happen?

In fact, several Russian generals are on record that deployment of tactical, short range nuclear weapons is a good idea - the West has no appetite for war (so they think) and such deployment would lead to decisive, early victories.

Wake up! Russia is an expansionist, dictatorial nation and is precisely the reason why NATO exists in the first place.

The uncomfortable reality is the US fucked up the Cold War peace. That doesn’t excuse or validate Russian aggression but it was a missed opportunity to bring real and lasting change to Europe. Ah well.

And no Russia won’t invade Poland because Poland is a NATO member. And that’s when WW3 starts. Crimea caught the west by surprise, they won’t make the same mistake but are limited in how they can respond to weapons and sanctions.

 

[metalblue]

It's "it's" not "its" by the way ;-)

sniggers some more.

 

[bluesteel]

You are sadly mistaken. Russia is seeing what they can get away with.

Invade Crimea. No consequence.

Invade part of the Ukraine. Little consequence.

Invade the rest of Ukraine - ditto.

Next, invade Poland. Just to see what happens. Hell, their previous invasions met with little pushback - so why not try Poland? What's the worse that could happen?

In fact, several Russian generals are on record that deployment of tactical, short range nuclear weapons is a good idea - the West has no appetite for war (so they think) and such deployment would lead to decisive, early victories.

Wake up! Russia is an expansionist, dictatorial nation and is precisely the reason why NATO exists in the first place.

Invade Iraq, no consequence.

Invade Afghanistan, no consequence.

Illegally send troops into Syria, no consequence (basically fighting the other side after Syria asked Russia for assistance).

Wake up, NATO are an expansionist, dictatorial group of nations and if you don’t believe in democracy and/or let them control your resources they’ll be sure to invade.

You’re only looking at it from one side.

 

[blueinsa]

With any luck whatsoever you'll wake up to the threat of Russia at some point where they dare to invade England.

As far as the Russia is flat and needs to protect itself against a west-leaning Ukraine - that's argument is so full of holes it's amazing that anyone - other than simpletons - buys into it.

I asked how you deducted from his post that he was on the right politically?

 

[hammocity]

In 1973 the Yom Kippur war, primarily between Israel and Egypt backed by USA and Russia respectively lasted less than 3 weeks. At one stage Richard Nixon threatened Russia with a nuclear strike if they didn’t back off supplying military aid to the Arab alliance. It was somewhat diversionary as Nixon was embroiled in the Watergate scandal but the threat was real and for many was terrifying.

As a 14 year old School boy I was dismayed, the headlines in the papers included “the world is on the brink” “world on red alert”. Our old French Studies Teacher took a perverse pleasure in telling our class our generation would probably die in a Nuclear war, I was in shreds, couldn’t sleep, couldn’t eat couldn’t study and I was a nervous wreck, my Mum got me through it.

Henry Kissinger, an American Diplomat brokered a peace deal in what become known as “shuttle diplomacy”, he was a brilliant man, should have been a President but wasn’t allowed as he was German born. At that time he was my hero, I got my life back on track as the threat of all out Nuclear war subsided.

I’m now as anxious but more angry that Russia is playing with peoples lives, I look at kids and think about the threat stupid and dangerous politicians are to their future.

We need a Henry Kissinger mark 2 to step in, diplomacy has to be the winner, if this war starts the end game is very dangerous, there is no victory for anyone.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

There was, I thought, an interesting theory put forward by someone in the Ukrainian government (Foreign minister possibly?) that a westward looking Ukraine will prosper in time - this will have their Russian brothers and sisters questioning their leadership leading to unrest etc etc etc, and this was a strong motivating factor for Putin. It’s about survival of the regime - so I don’t necessarily agree he can walk back and not lose, perhaps in the short term.

I have heard this “western-style capitalism on the doorstep” issue, but I don’t think this is that.

To me, this is about unfettered access and domination of the southern front into the Black Sea. That’s what Crimea is all about, and NATO naval bases in Ukraine is a no-go for Russia.

They need water access, given the Murmansk/Polyarny Northern Fleet is their only other real clear water port to the greater western world (which is a looong cruise!), and the Black Sea access to the Mediterranean (and the heart of NATO and Middle East) is vital to Russia’s global access.

Sevastapol is a “Ukrainian” city of 500,000 people, but is the main Russian Naval Base in the Black Sea, which is yet another reason (the main one??) Crimea has been considered “Russian” for centuries.

None of this presupposes I have any semblance of sympathy for Putin and his motives, merely pointing out that China and Russia are both flexing their geopolitical muscles while the U.S. is still reeling from Afghan withdrawal and the complete lack of desire of Americans to engage elsewhere in the world again so soon, not to mention the political division he helped foment with a Trump
Presidency.

(China’s expansionary activities in the South China Sea & Philippines Sea are the exact same thing: they need unfettered naval access for power projection and are currently hemmed in by Japan, South Korea to the North, Taiwan to the East, and the Philippines to the South. The new man-made islands, airports and deep water ports are seen as an extension of China, and places China into the Pacific, extends their claim to greater open ocean “sovereignty” and the ability to keep their Navy and, more importantly, their subs from being encumbered of the need for service & supply currently required on the Chinese mainland.)

The word here is that Tuesday-Wednesday is when hostilities might begin, but they look ready to go anytime.

The German Chancellor is set to head to Ukraine & Russia this week, so it would be a massive blow to the new Chancellor if the first shots were fired either while he was in Ukraine or Russia, or immediately thereafter.

Should they go, it’s hard to see how the borders get moved back to where they are today if Russia advances into areas they don’t already occupy. Given that, I’m not sure what economic sanctions DO NOT create even more instability in Europe, Russia, and cause the entire globe to feel the ripples.

Tick tock, tick tock…

 

[bluesteel]

Russia is actively occupying part of another nation. Nothing from you on that illegal action?


Actually it was set up to protect its members against Soviet Russian aggression, not specifically communism. Nothing appears to have changed on that regard


No its worse, its a dictatorship with militaristic ambitions of reclaiming former Soviet "territories" it has no right to claim.


"Your nuclear missiles?"


Which is completely correct. Russia has no right to prevent anyone from joining NATO. What if China wished to join NATO, would Russia invade Manchuria to create an imaginary "buffer zone"?


Anyone would think NATO countries intend to use their nuclear deterrent against them... which makes no sense because they're a deterrent, not an offensive strategy.


Aside from Iraq, what acts of "NATO aggression" has you concerned that if Ukraine becomes part of NATO and/or the EU that they'd launch an invasion of Russia? Do you honestly think that the Ukrainian Government would be in favour of having their country as the staging area for an Russian incursion?


Nobody. Wants. To. Invade. Russia! In what possible sense have NATO "acted aggressively" to Russia? Russia should be asking why does Ukraine feel the need to WANT to join NATO in the first place. NATO cannot tell another nation that they can't join if their elected government and people express a wish to want to join. That goes against everything that NATO was set up for in the first place. Ukraine fears Russian aggression, it's asked NATO for protection and help, but to qualify it must join and has expressed a wish to do so. Russia is losing its shit because after taking Crimea they feel bullish about occupying more Ukrainian territory. Who is the aggressor in this situation?!


NATO doesn't want to invade because they're trying to AVOID war. Russia is using war as a "give me what I want or else" tactic.

I try to look at thinks from the other side too. I don’t agree with any invasion, in Ukraine, in Georgia, in Iraq, in Afghanistan etc etc.

I understand why Russia feel backed into a corner. I don’t believe Russia are looking to expand, I understand attack, is in their case, the best form of defence as far as they are concerned.

I believe they shouldn’t have to, I’d rather NATO offer Russia the same missile defence system as a de-escalation, invite Ukraine to NATO, make Russia give Crimea back and allow nord stream 2, the reason that would never happen, is the same reason Russia are about to do what they are going to do, and many lives will be devastatingly lost.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

The uncomfortable reality is the US fucked up the Cold War peace.

Errrr, continue….

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I can't help thinking that some perspectives are based on whether a poster believes that Putin thinks that Russia is threatened.

If you think he truely believes that Russia is threatened, that leads to belief that NATO being the aggressor.

If you think he knows that Russia isn't threatened and is using the claim as a political move, then Russia must be the aggressor.

I can't see any argument that doesn't fit one of those. I think it's the second, as otherwise it's against NATO's raison d'etre, and would not be supported by most/all of NATO.

Why would Ukraine believe that Russia would keep to any agreement it made? It took from 1994 in Budapest to 2014 - 20 years - before Russia invaded.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

I understand why Russia feel backed into a corner.

Which is…

I don’t believe Russia are looking to expand, I understand attack, is in their case, the best form of defence as far as they are concerned.

Pardon my French, but bollocks!

I believe they shouldn’t have to, I’d rather NATO offer Russia the same missile defence system as a de-escalation, invite Ukraine to NATO, make Russia give Crimea back and allow nord stream 2, the reason that would never happen, is the same reason Russia are about to do what they are going to do, and many lives will be devastatingly lost.

And then you woke up from the Chamberlain-like fever dream…

Make no mistake, Putin wants MULTIPLE things…

He wants to control the Black Sea, he wants Russia to retake historically “Soviet Russian” lands, and he wants to stop paying other countries billions of dollars to get gas to Germany through N1, which is why he built N2 (for almost $15B) as a direct pipeline that drops ALL the revenues from it into his pockets!

The US threat, apparently worked out with German Chancellor when he visited, is that N2 would NOT be allowed to be opened to fund his activities and starve Ukraine of their $Bn, and other economic sanctions would be designed to negate the gains Putin feels he can achieve from trying to make Ukraine look unstable (BY HIM!!) and N2 look like the smart move for German energy needs!

(Edit: Almost 5am here, so the Sandman calls! See y’all later!)

 

[Len Rum]

It will probably end up with Russia annexing the separatist held areas in the Donbas (the pink bits below) without anything more than a bit of a skirmish.

This was my thoughts.
But it may not end up there.
Putin could easily annex these areas to ratchet up the tension and pressure similar to Hitler's invasion of the Sudetenland prior to WW2.

 

[metalblue]

Errrr, continue….

To kick off the conversation- I posted this earlier in the thread when muting that Russia could just join NATO (obviously using a different name). I think there was a belief amongst some in Washington that Russia was a spent force whose sensitivities could be somewhat discarded - certainly some policy decisions (see NATO expansion and Yeltsin) would suggest that was the case

Difficult yes, impossible no.

Unfortunately that ship has sailed at least for the time being - as Bush said of the London Declaration to Gorbachev “in our invitation to you to come in NATO” which indicates an acceptance on all sides that it was possible. Of course NATO was looking for a new purpose after the Cold War, it was about to become less about military cooperation and more about political cooperation. Russia, a key participant in the CSCE conferences, was engaged and through the Partnership for Peace it was considered by both Washington and Moscow as the most likely venue for security integration within Europe.

Yeltsin tried to take this further via the G8 and wanted a US-Russian partnership on European and global security. He offered that the CSCE retains the key role for security in Europe and he wanted a model that worked more naturally between the various organisations - basically he wanted closer cooperation within any structure other than NATO, for obvious reasons.

Yeltsin went on to lose his shit with a Clinton due to concerns over NATO expansion that Washington had completely misread the rune stones on. They managed to bring it back when Russia signed it to the PfP but in all honesty pretty much everything that went wrong with the hope the world had after the end of the Cold War lays at the doorstep of the White House, where angels feared to tread Washington went in with both feet. There was no malice intended but poor judgement of the reaction from Russia and Putin is a product of those failures.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

This was my thoughts.
But it may not end up there.
Putin could easily annex these areas to ratchet up the tension and pressure similar to Hitler's invasion of the Sudetenland prior to WW2.

Quite, and why there has to be united opposition to it - "first they came for the Donbass"

 

[bluesteel]

Which is…

OK, let me put it like this, for the hard of understanding.

Let us imagine Russia have set up some equivalent of NATO, lets call it RTO, they have signed up with Denmark (Greenland), Belize, Cuba, and whatever the closest island is to Hawaii.

They have put a missile defence system in capable of shooting down any missile launched from US soil, and also have the same system in Russia, to protect from a submarine attack, America doesn't have this missile defence.

Mexico wants to join the RTO, America obvious aren't too keen on the idea..... what the fuck do you think happens next? I'm telling you right now a load of US tanks are ploughing into Mexico, and if you don't believe that you're deluded.

 

[Metal Biker]

I try to look at thinks from the other side too. I don’t agree with any invasion, in Ukraine, in Georgia, in Iraq, in Afghanistan etc etc.

I understand why Russia feel backed into a corner. I don’t believe Russia are looking to expand, I understand attack, is in their case, the best form of defence as far as they are concerned.

I believe they shouldn’t have to, I’d rather NATO offer Russia the same missile defence system as a de-escalation, invite Ukraine to NATO, make Russia give Crimea back and allow nord stream 2, the reason that would never happen, is the same reason Russia are about to do what they are going to do, and many lives will be devastatingly lost.

Yeah but look at the side you're trying to "empathise" with.

A dictatorial regime that restricts freedoms and rights for many of its own citizens, a nation that is currently 124th in the Democracy Index and classed officially as Authoritarian by the UN. They're imagining that NATO wishes to invade, when it has no such desires.

There IS no threat from NATO except the one Russia believes in. NATO shouldn't have to negotiate the return of Crimea, it isn't Russia's to occupy. NATO owes Russia nothing. Russia isn't "backed into a corner", it's not getting its way so is perceiving peaceful nations as a threat to their ambitions.

 

[Metal Biker]

OK, let me put it like this, for the hard of understanding.

Let us imagine Russia have set up some equivalent of NATO, lets call it RTO, they have signed up with Denmark (Greenland), Belize, Cuba, and whatever the closest island is to Hawaii.

They have put a missile defence system in capable of shooting down any missile launched from US soil, and also have the same system in Russia, to protect from a submarine attack, America doesn't have this missile defence.

Mexico wants to join the RTO, America obvious aren't too keen on the idea..... what the fuck do you think happens next? I'm telling you right now a load of US tanks are ploughing into Mexico, and if you don't believe that you're deluded.

In that case the US would be the aggressor.

You have just explained how Russia IS the aggressor in this situation!

 

[BobKowalski]

OK, let me put it like this, for the hard of understanding.

Let us imagine Russia have set up some equivalent of NATO, lets call it RTO, they have signed up with Denmark (Greenland), Belize, Cuba, and whatever the closest island is to Hawaii.

They have put a missile defence system in capable of shooting down any missile launched from US soil, and also have the same system in Russia, to protect from a submarine attack, America doesn't have this missile defence.

Mexico wants to join the RTO, America obvious aren't too keen on the idea..... what the fuck do you think happens next? I'm telling you right now a load of US tanks are ploughing into Mexico, and if you don't believe that you're deluded.

You could call it the Collective Security Treaty Organisation or CSTO for short. It has nine members and it already exists.

Mexico has no plans to join.