Russian invasion of Ukraine

Vic said:
For that - sowing division - they have had the help of "useful idiots", notably the Brexiteers here and the Trumpers in the States. In fact, the divisions were sown and home-grown domestically, Russia (Putin) has just exploited them.
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Every society on Earth has sections of society who are impressionable and not quite intelligent or insightful enough to understand how to find out the truth.

However, it’s slightly harsh on them to lay blame at their feet because the people who most vitriolically oppose them and point the finger at them calling them idiots and blaming them for what’s going on are also falling into the trap that Russia and China have set.

The extreme ‘two-sides-of-the-argument’ are what they’ve wanted to create. Tribal football-like rivalries who think the other side are scumbags who are utterly wrong with everything they say; and both sides fall for it! Instead of searching for solutions, one side is forever talking about how catastrophic everything is and pointing the finger at the wrong people. The other side are forever defending their stance and probably don’t fully understand how they got there, some have been brainwashed so much that they’re too far gone.

It all starts with Russia and China using that tiny group of West hating Westerners who are from here but hate our way of living to plant a story or theory or stance, with people like the Qs, and the impressionable are forever getting enticed because people live their lives online and can get drawn in very easily.
Then Russia and China plant seeds on the other end of the scale and set a narrative of vitriolic opposition. And then they take a step back while everyone argues on for years.

You only have to see it with the Covid conspiracies and anti-vacc stuff: people who have been stuffing recreational drugs up their noses and down their throats throughout their adult life, with no fucking idea what’s in them not the inclination to ever find out; people who’ve taken anti-biotics and had all their vaccines and allowed their children to have all their vaccines, with no fucking idea what’s in them and no inclination to ever find out; people who’ve never thought about challenging the medical profession on anything ever before in their lives… all of a sudden get drawn into some shite on social media and are then part of a crusade of bollocks about questioning the medical profession and being paranoid about what’s in the vaccines and how it will affect us and telling everyone they can possibly tell their stance on it.

Are the impressionable the ones to blame here? Are the Beexiteers? On the whole, I don’t think so! It’s just a perfect storm of enticing language and stories online that people without the intelligence levels to understand are fake news, who get drawn in; and a vitriolic opposition on the other side who give them shit.

I’ve been guilty of it with the Covid stuff, I’ve called people Covidiots hundreds of times over the last two years for bringing up the conspiracy shit around Covid and vaccines and forever pointing the finger at them telling them how stupid the are; you’ve been guilty of it with Brexit calling people Brexidiots (or whatever word is used) and forever pointing the finger at them telling them how stupid the are… but we’ve all fallen for the real root of it all. We are all part of the divisions if we’ve taken a side with any sort of issue and pointed the finger at the other side.

While Russia and China sit back and laugh at us.
 
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robbieh said:
Just a quick point. It's often forgotten that the US had nukes in Turkey pointing at Moscow before the Soviets installed theirs in Cuba.
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They didn’t have nuclear warheads, and were OBSOLETE missiles, which is one of the reasons they were an easy withdrawal, even though the Turks were unhappy.
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
Every society on Earth has sections of society who are impressionable and not quite intelligent or insightful enough to understand how to find out the truth.

However, it’s slightly harsh on them to lay blame at their feet because the people who most vitriolically oppose them and point the finger at them calling them idiots and blaming them for what’s going on are also falling into the trap that Russia and China have set.

The extreme ‘two-sides-of-the-argument’ are what they’ve wanted to create. Tribal football-like rivalries who think the other side are scumbags who are utterly wrong with everything they say; and both sides fall for it! Instead of searching for solutions, one side is forever talking about how catastrophic everything is and pointing the finger at the wrong people. The other side are forever defending their stance and probably don’t fully understand how they got there, some have been brainwashed so much that they’re too far gone.

It all starts with Russia and China using that tiny group of West hating Westerners who are from here but hate our way of living to plant a story or theory or stance, with people like the Qs, and the impressionable are forever getting enticed because people live their lives online and can get drawn in very easily.
Then Russia and China plant seeds on the other end of the scale and set a narrative of vitriolic opposition. And then they take a step back while everyone argues on for years.

You only have to see it with the Covid conspiracies and anti-vacc stuff: people who have been stuffing recreational drugs up their noses and down their throats throughout their adult life, with no fucking idea what’s in them not the inclination to ever find out; people who’ve taken anti-biotics and had all their vaccines and allowed their children to have all their vaccines, with no fucking idea what’s in them and no inclination to ever find out; people who’ve never thought about challenging the medical profession on anything ever before in their lives… all of a sudden get drawn into some shite on social media and are then part of a crusade of bollocks about questioning the medical profession and being paranoid about what’s in the vaccines and how it will affect us and telling everyone they can possibly tell their stance on it.

Are the impressionable the ones to blame here? Are the Beexiteers? On the whole, I don’t think so! It’s just a perfect storm of enticing language and stories online that people without the intelligence levels to understand are fake news, who get drawn in; and a vitriolic opposition on the other side who give them shit.

I’ve been guilty of it with the Covid stuff, I’ve called people Covidiots hundreds of times over the last two years for bringing up the conspiracy shit around Covid and vaccines and forever pointing the finger at them telling them how stupid the are; you’ve been guilty of it with Brexit calling people Brexidiots (or whatever word is used) and forever pointing the finger at them telling them how stupid the are… but we’ve all fallen for the real root of it all. We are all part of the divisions if we’ve taken a side with any sort of issue and pointed the finger at the other side.

While Russia and China sit back and laugh at us.
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If you look through history, whenever we seem to go through long periods of uncertainty it does appear that conspiracy theories are more easily gobbled up by people - because it provides them comfort. What we've seen over the last few years though are figures in authority (Trump, Bolsorano), using that paranoia to their advantage.

The most concerning thing about all of this is how many people are so far down the rabbit hole now, that it would take months of deprograming to get them on the straight and arrow again...
 
Vic said:
So the USA agreed to install nuclear missiles in Turkey, Turkey paid for the missiles, then the USA wouldn't provide the nuclear warheads.

And did Kruschev know that these warhead-less missiles that could strike Russia were never an offensive threat?

I'm sure we're relieved that history means all that anxiety at the time was misplaced.

"Dummy weapons nearly led to Armageddon" doesn't exactly sound too reassuring.
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Context is important and the further we move from the original posts, the more we remove the context.
 
Vic said:
I hadn't realised you were quite so "my country right or wrong.
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I’m not, but the lack of evenhandedness towards America, esp the American military that helped keep global peace for 4 generations, is easy to negate.

I'll just pick on a couple of bits.

"As to the dictators to whom the US has cozied up, it is clear that absent coups, the US has had to deal with them."

I'm not sure i understood this, but would this include the dictators the US supported or installed in a coup?
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The point I was making was that for America it seems they’re “damned if you do, damned if you don’t!” when it comes to playing with dictators.

Aggressive dictators, which don’t want to play get spanked and the ones who represent no threat are cajoled, even coddled. Peace often isn’t pretty. Pick your poison!

And as for brutal war in the Pacific, does 20 million dead in Russia sound more brutal?
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Is that a serious question? I ask because it’s completely irrelevant to the issue!

And I certainly haven't welcomed the American threat in Europe, as it meant the USSR threatened Europe with nuclear weapons (well, western Europe, they were already in the East, but that was what they got for having 20 million dead before the USA joined in).
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You’re welcome!
SMH
 
Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, said the day "will go into history as the day western war propaganda failed. They have been disgraced and destroyed without a single shot being fired."

Yes, Russia, you won the propaganda war against the west! Well done! You are much stronk, very power! Now put your toys away.
 
robbieh said:
Just a quick point. It's often forgotten that the US had nukes in Turkey pointing at Moscow before the Soviets installed theirs in Cuba.
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It's funny how these sort of things are just completely irrelevant In todays world, the game today is very different to the one of 60 years ago.

Submarine launched nuclear weapons have a range in excess of 7,000 miles. Moscow is less than that distance from the mainland US and it isn't like this matters anyway because submarines can move and fire them from wherever it likes.

This is why the idea of Putin being threatened by NATO expansion or even NATO at all is just a completely stupid idea. He'd still be under that threat if he had a 5,000 mile trench between Russia and the next country.
 
metalblue said:
Interesting questions.

I think the US would firstly want to target the state owned banks. There are two benefits to this - firstly none have been subject to blocking sanctions (unlike the energy sector albeit with some notable exemptions such as Gazprom) and secondly the US can act unilaterally however it really only needs the UK to join them to make them really effective - I think the EU would join these as well given the limited impact either way however slight risk Germany might block but I suspect everyone has agreed to this already.

The next best option is probably sanctions against metals and mining - again they’ve only been subject to really targeted sanctions previously - and if the US and UK act together it could make them pretty effective - but here it would be much better if EU joined.

Germany can act unilaterally by mothballing nord stream 2 - the Germans have already signalled this will be a casualty of any war in Ukraine however haven’t specifically stated it. There is a medium term risk in this one; that if the Germans don’t mothball it, the EU stand by and do nothing, and the situation deteriorates following a full scale invasion then the US might end up imposing sanctions against Germany and potentially the EU. And I’ve no comprehension how that could play out but it won’t look good and Putin will probably laugh his nuts off having achieved a divided NATO.

We can expect Russian retaliation so if Russia responded by limiting gas and/or oil exports then I think the west would be more united in widening the scope of sanctions on energy exports, shipping, and insurance. The US can also act to limit trading in Russian debt.

So my money is on banks and NS2 being the first - they do the least damage to the west and aren’t all that contentious compared to other options; and then we increase other sanctions as time goes by. Now the west may not wait for a just go full on sanctions from day 1 as they have threatened a severe response. Nonetheless however these sanctions manifest themselves (and they take time to work) it’s going to hurt us as well.
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If they go, it’ll happen SWIFTly!!!
 
Tugay One Cup said:
Like an omnipotent Wayne Couzens.
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Insecure, flaccid little boys always run to their strong big brother to beat up the kid that’s bothering them.

You don’t get to make the phone call, bring your towel to dab his brow and then expect to command the fight…or dictate the outcome.

One man’s Wayne Couzens is another guy’s Captain America!
 
gaz76 said:
Sounds promising, wouldnt suprise me if it wasnt part of the plan though, false flag somewhere in Russia, quick about turn from the battalions and they make out that it wasnt in the original plans but it was handy the lads were nearby
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Exactly!

130,000 troops didn’t get there in a day, nor will they be gone in a day.

I’d be interested to discover if ALL 130,000 head home, and how soon they ALL get there.
 
Seems likely there will be an under the table deal that will allow both sides to declare victory much to the disappointment of Johnson who I believe wants a war so he can pretend to be Churchill and distract everyone from his endemic corruption and lies.
 
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