Russian invasion of Ukraine

Dave Ewing's Back 'eader said:
Diplomacy might get yer a slice of the Ukraine, but it comes nowhere near what a Russian tank can get yer! And once yer've got it, who's gonna take it back?
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I think this will end up with a part of Ukraine annexed as 'Russian' like part of Ireland is 'British'. The west will then arm/protect the remainder.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
I think this will end up with a part of Ukraine annexed as 'Russian' like part of Ireland is 'British'. The west will then arm/protect the remainder.
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Yup not a chance the West will get involved apart from sanctions. NATO troops firing at Russian forces won’t happen as you’ve then got world war 3 on your hands. Think their last incursion into crimea lasted a month or so and key military figures in Ukraine defected to the other side.
 
The Future’s Blue! said:
And that’s a big part of this that many forget. This isn’t the Russian’s against Ukraine, this is all about Putin and his hold on the country. An independent, democratic and economically stable Ukraine poses a huge threat to Putin’s reign, which would show many of the Russian people what they might be missing.

For me, this is much more than the optics show. This has far greater reach with regard to the whole political and economic structures in Russia itself.
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Independent and democratic does not necessarily equate to economically stable.
Currently Ukraine has GDP per capita of approx 9,000 USD. Russia 26,000 USD.
 
feedmpenzaandhewillscore said:
Yup not a chance the West will get involved apart from sanctions. NATO troops firing at Russian forces won’t happen as you’ve then got world war 3 on your hands. Think their last incursion into crimea lasted a month or so and key military figures in Ukraine defected to the other side.
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You have a better handle on this than I do but what if Ukraine actually manages to defend their Country and overwhelm Russian troops? Does Putin launch a strategic Nuclear Strike on Kiev and we face WW3? Chernobyl is still an exclusion zone from an accident, Kiev would be catastrophic, what the fuck are the UN doing? It was created to ensure we never got into another major conflict like the one developing, all we are hearing and seeing is Russian aggression and the West using inflammatory language. It’s crazy, I hope all sides back off. When Putin became leader of Russia this scenario was predicted, he’s an ego maniac who’s lived a privileged life but has no empathy for the struggle’s of others. Hoping one of his Generals has the balls to terminate him.
 
hammocity said:
You have a better handle on this than I do but what if Ukraine actually manages to defend their Country and overwhelm Russian troops? Does Putin launch a strategic Nuclear Strike on Kiev and we face WW3? Chernobyl is still an exclusion zone from an accident, Kiev would be catastrophic, what the fuck are the UN doing? It was created to ensure we never got into another major conflict like the one developing, all we are hearing and seeing is Russian aggression and the West using inflammatory language. It’s crazy, I hope all sides back off. When Putin became leader of Russia this scenario was predicted, he’s an ego maniac who’s lived a privileged life but has no empathy for the struggle’s of others. Hoping one of his Generals has the balls to terminate him.
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An ego maniac who's lived a privileged life but has no empathy...
Could be talking about Boris.
While WW2 was a reaction to a despotic sociopath. The disaster of WW1 was mainly a fight between democratic monarchies.
So wars differ but there's always money and resources.
Putin doesn't care about the likely loss of life nor does Biden.
 
hammocity said:
You have a better handle on this than I do but what if Ukraine actually manages to defend their Country and overwhelm Russian troops? Does Putin launch a strategic Nuclear Strike on Kiev and we face WW3? Chernobyl is still an exclusion zone from an accident, Kiev would be catastrophic, what the fuck are the UN doing? It was created to ensure we never got into another major conflict like the one developing, all we are hearing and seeing is Russian aggression and the West using inflammatory language. It’s crazy, I hope all sides back off. When Putin became leader of Russia this scenario was predicted, he’s an ego maniac who’s lived a privileged life but has no empathy for the struggle’s of others. Hoping one of his Generals has the balls to terminate him.
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The worrying part of this if they moved on Kiev rather than land grabbing the Russian loyal areas. I don’t think the Ukrainian army has a chance up against half of the entire Russian army massed on its borders, do they stand and fight or defect to the other side. Not a chance anything nuclear happens here if it does Putin will be living out the rest of his life in a bunker eating tinned spam.
 
hammocity said:
You have a better handle on this than I do but what if Ukraine actually manages to defend their Country and overwhelm Russian troops? Does Putin launch a strategic Nuclear Strike on Kiev and we face WW3? Chernobyl is still an exclusion zone from an accident, Kiev would be catastrophic, what the fuck are the UN doing? It was created to ensure we never got into another major conflict like the one developing, all we are hearing and seeing is Russian aggression and the West using inflammatory language. It’s crazy, I hope all sides back off. When Putin became leader of Russia this scenario was predicted, he’s an ego maniac who’s lived a privileged life but has no empathy for the struggle’s of others. Hoping one of his Generals has the balls to terminate him.
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There’s only one side that needs to back off. Where are the other side supposed to back off to?
 
feedmpenzaandhewillscore said:
The worrying part of this if they moved on Kiev rather than land grabbing the Russian loyal areas. I don’t think the Ukrainian army has a chance up against half of the entire Russian army massed on its borders, do they stand and fight or defect to the other side. Not a chance anything nuclear happens here if it does Putin will be living out the rest of his life in a bunker eating tinned spam.
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I’m no expert on this but my mate said Ukraine has an army of around 300k troops and 900k reserves who could inflict major damage in the Russian troops. On the BBC news it states Putin is reviewing his strategic Nuclear force on “Saturday”.
 
hammocity said:
I’m no expert on this but my mate said Ukraine has an army of around 300k troops and 900k reserves who could inflict major damage in the Russian troops. On the BBC news it states Putin is reviewing his strategic Nuclear force on “Saturday”.
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They have numbers but they are going up against more advanced equipment. A lot of Ukraine’s military pieces are inherited from the soviet era, one thing Putin does instead of spending on his people and their living standards. All their money goes on keeping up with the yanks, there are Russian equivalents of the F22, Ukraine has ancient Mig 29s.
 
hammocity said:
The sentence before I quoted Russian aggression and inflammatory language, back off from both of those.
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I’m not sure what inflammatory language you’re talking about. I would have thought it is sensible to let everyone know that the building up of 190,000 troops on the Ukraine border and the instigation of skirmishes in and around the separatist areas is happening if only to let the Russians know that they’re not fooling anyone with their claims of Ukrainian aggression. It’s clear that Russia are creating a pretext to invade Ukraine and if no one said anything the Russians would control the narrative. At least by exposing clear Russian intentions there is a chance, albeit slight, that the Russians will not invade if only to prove the west wrong.
 
Still don't think they're going to invade. I think Russia have a goal in mind i.e get Ukraine to sign a deal promising they won't join NATO.

They're just going through the process of escalation to force Ukraine's hand into signing the deal. 100,000 troops on the border wasn't enough so they're bringing more and more. Now they're starting to play silly buggers with the separatists to escalate the situation further.

Just wondering how many more tricks up their sleeve Russia have to escalate things further without shots being fired.

I guess the key thing is what happens when Russia have exhausted all their tricks. Will Russia back down and go home empty handed if they can't achieve their aims without actually using force?
 
west didsblue said:
I’m not sure what inflammatory language you’re talking about. I would have thought it is sensible to let everyone know that the building up of 190,000 troops on the Ukraine border and the instigation of skirmishes in and around the separatist areas is happening if only to let the Russians know that they’re not fooling anyone with their claims of Ukrainian aggression. It’s clear that Russia are creating a pretext to invade Ukraine and if no one said anything the Russians would control the narrative. At least by exposing clear Russian intentions there is a chance, albeit slight, that the Russians will not invade if only to prove the west wrong.
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Hopefully your last sentence is the situation that prevails in the end.
 
crooky said:
Still don't think they're going to invade. I think Russia have a goal in mind i.e get Ukraine to sign a deal promising they won't join NATO.

They're just going through the process of escalation to force Ukraine's hand into signing the deal. 100,000 troops on the border wasn't enough so they're bringing more and more. Now they're starting to play silly buggers with the separatists to escalate the situation further.

Just wondering how many more tricks up their sleeve Russia have to escalate things further without shots being fired.

I guess the key thing is what happens when Russia have exhausted all their tricks. Will Russia back down and go home empty handed if they can't achieve their aims without actually using force?
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I’d like to think you’re right but the reality is that there would be no prospect of Ukraine joining NATO anytime soon without this Russian aggression. The whole thing is about Putin wanting build a new Russian empire and he is using any bullshit he can think of to justify what it’s clear will happen. The latest ultimatum from Putin is that NATO reverts back to its 1997 position which means the Baltic states would no longer be members. That’s never going to happen so unless the non-military consequences of invading Ukraine are enough to stop him it will happen.
 
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