Russian invasion of Ukraine

I see it as a very real threat.

Russia has more than enough man power to take Ukraine pretty swiftly to be honest and there will be little Western intervention.
They have enough manpower to take Ukraine, yes, but holding onto places like Kyiv with a large dissenting and unsettled population seems quite pointless. Russia tends to try and rule by Proxy by manipulating elections and funding puppet democracies (like in Belarus). Then again though, who knows? All this could be another power play by Russia to see how far they can push the west (EU/USA/UK) without intervention. They're constantly pushing the boundaries, so this might be the next escalation in that process.
 
They have enough manpower to take Ukraine, yes, but holding onto places like Kyiv with a large dissenting and unsettled population seems quite pointless. Russia tends to try and rule by Proxy by manipulating elections and funding puppet democracies (like in Belarus). Then again though, who knows? All this could be another power play by Russia to see how far they can push the west (EU/USA/UK) without intervention. They're constantly pushing the boundaries, so this might be the next escalation in that process.

Bite size chunk invasion. 8 years ago Chrimea, this year Donetsk and Luhansk, 40 years later there is no Ukraine.
 
Bite size chunk invasion. 8 years ago Chrimea, this year Donetsk and Luhansk, 40 years later there is no Ukraine.
Or Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Belarus. Bridging Kaliningrad back to Russia.

Probably Georgia too.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
They have enough manpower to take Ukraine, yes, but holding onto places like Kyiv with a large dissenting and unsettled population seems quite pointless. Russia tends to try and rule by Proxy by manipulating elections and funding puppet democracies (like in Belarus). Then again though, who knows? All this could be another power play by Russia to see how far they can push the west (EU/USA/UK) without intervention. They're constantly pushing the boundaries, so this might be the next escalation in that process.

I've just seen a lot of people downplaying the situation for months now and Putin has already gone further than a lot of people wanted to admit.

His speech the other day was more than concerning.
 
Russian empire, not USSR, he actually blamed the USSR for ukraine sense on national identity.

The baltic state and findland should probably be worried if we let him annex the ukraine but other ex soviet state are probably of no importance to him, even for a loon he knows his limits
The Russian Empire included Alaska and parts of Canada, at its greatest extent!
 
Yes. I did think that sounded a stupid thing to say for the defence secretary of a leading world power. The fact that it's our government should come as no surprise after what we've witnessed these last two years.

Nah, he's correct.
We absolutely could beat the Tsar nowadays. Even we can take on a corpse.
 
People find it incredibly difficult nowadays to rationalise events vs the impact on politics and their brand of politics. I can't stand this current government but I would support anything they can do (beyond war) to help Ukraine.

There are people though who cannot support that because they categorically cannot support anything that this government does. If the government created a universal cure for cancer then certain people would have a problem with it.

This is the response of the ex leader of the opposition, you really couldn't make it up. I'm not sure what his idea of diplomacy would be when foreign troops are actively invading a country. The idea that this is about NATO or US aggression is just completely ridiculous. The irony is that the best mediator in this conflict would be Russia's biggest and closest ally physically which is Turkey and Turkey is a NATO country....


It’s fucking boring mate, same goes for the boring fuckers on here constantly having a go at each other over their political views. I couldn’t give a fuck about politicians these days, they’re all the same as each other. No matter who is in charge, there will be some sort of scandal ongoing, it’s relentless.

Nows the time to be fully behind Ukraine, not having digs at NATO/EU/US/UK. The only bad guys in this saga is Putin and his blood thirsty army.
 
I don't see any real threat of Russia occupying Ukraine as a whole. The three regions they've either annexed or declared as independent states are the only areas with any semblance of a Pro-Russian agenda. Places like Kiev are pro-independence and it would be very difficult to manage that population of people. There might be a land war (probably ending with a pro-Moscow leader in Ukraine - which was the status quo a decade ago), but I see it as being incredibly unlikely that we'll see the entire country annexed or absorbed into Russia.

That's how Russia does it though, they fund people who are pro-Russia and make the places they want to take over unsuitable for any non-Russians.

Donetsk wasn't always like it is now but Russia through funding or force drove the Ukrainians out of there, so now it looks like the majority of Donetsk wants to be a part of Russia when the reality is; the Ukrainians that lived there were driven away.

You only have to look at the major football team Shakhtar Donetsk who haven't played in Donetsk for 6 years to know how long Russia has been making the place uninhabitable.
 
It’s fucking boring mate, same goes for the boring fuckers on here constantly having a go at each other over their political views. I couldn’t give a fuck about politicians these days, they’re all the same as each other. No matter who is in charge, there will be some sort of scandal ongoing, it’s relentless.
Fuck the TORIES and there shithouse mop head lying fat arsewipe of a leader:)
 
It’s fucking boring mate, same goes for the boring fuckers on here constantly having a go at each other over their political views. I couldn’t give a fuck about politicians these days, they’re all the same as each other. No matter who is in charge, there will be some sort of scandal ongoing, it’s relentless.

Nows the time to be fully behind Ukraine, not having digs at NATO/EU/US/UK. The only bad guys in this saga is Putin and his blood thirsty army.
Lazy generalisation.
No one is the same as the lying fraud acting as a Prime Minister without actually doing the job he should be doing, and bullshitting his way through it instead. That’s nothing to do with political views just about the clown who’s supposed to be running the country along with his supporting sycophants.

Agree with your second paragraph but that depends on having a government that’s fit for purpose.
 
They've driven away more or less everyone who's able-bodied, not yet in old age and with the capacity to flee, whether their sympathies lie with Russia or Ukraine. It used to be a thriving, vibrant city and to see it ruined in this way is very sad. There's more to say and not all of VVP's analysis regarding Donbas is incorrect, but the point is that you have to accept things as they are and not how you want.

Eastern Ukraine and even more so the middle part of the country has now become much less Russianised than it was in Soviet times, or even 30 years ago in the early days of independence (the west was never Russianised). Russia can regret that if it wants, and not everything that led to this path reflects well on Ukraine IMO, but you have to accept things as you are and not as you want them to be.

Russia trying to revisit the breakup of the Soviet Union now and add territories such as this is as ridiculous as if the UK and Northern Irish loyalists decided that they never should have let an additional three Ulster counties be part of the Irish Free State in the early 1920s so we'll claim back Donegal, Cavan, and Monaghan now. You have to let it go.

More generally, while VVP's speech the other day was pretty horrifying, the most disturbing thing I've seen in recent days was a new report on one of the state channels. They were banging on about how Ukraine wasn't really an independent state but a satellite of the USA. It was claimed that everyone in a significant state office was appointed by the Americans and Ukrainian democracy was a sham. The plan, Russian TV alleges, is to move American long-range missiles into Ukrainian territory and then launch attacks on Russia.

This is a despicably false analysis, but people in Russia are going to swallow it, unfortunately, as a pretext for regime change. (I used to think the Russian public especially gullible in this regard, but after observing the UK over the past few years I'm not quite so sure any longer.) It's very distressing.

Now, VVP's analysis that Ukraine has never been an independent state and shouldn't be one now is quite often voiced in Russia. Many people think that Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are very similar eastern Slavic peoples from the Orthodox tradition who are unified by the Russian language (large numbers of of those in the other two states who aren't first-language Russian speak it fluently), so they should be united in a single state.

But ask them whether they should invade the modern Ukrainian state, make themselves a pariah on the world stage and attract inevitable crippling economic sanctions, then of course they'll say no. It's really not remotely a big deal for them, though it evidently is for the President given his recent speech.

On the other hand, it's a different answer if you ask them whether Russia should intervene to protect, from Ukrainian persecution, fellow Russians unfortunate enough to land on the wrong side of the border. The same if you ask whether a pre-emptive strike is needed to replace a government allowing its territory to be cultivated as a launchpad for an attack on Russia.

I find it extremely distressing. But that's how propaganda works, folks. They'll largely carry the domestic population with them even though that domestic population will be a big loser from the war - not on the level of the poor people in the actual war zone, obviously, but they'll suffer nonetheless. Anyway, on that depressing note, I'm logging off for the night.
I get your point @petrusha and value your insights into what is going on, but I think your Northern Ireland comparison is misplaced.

I know the point you are making, but it was Craig and the Unionists who themselves opted for the six counties to maintain a majority in what they called Ulster.
It isn’t of course Ulster and Ulster did not say no, as their famous slogan said for so long. A nine county Ulster would not have allowed separation from an all Ireland.
Carson himself was against the break up of the country.
He of course wanted the whole country to remain in the UK or at least the Commonwealth.
That in itself was still against the Democratic vote that had taken place.

However, like I said, I understand the point you are making and there are similarities but there are fundamental differences that wouldn’t have the rest of Britain looking to expand their territory then or now.
 
They've driven away more or less everyone who's able-bodied, not yet in old age and with the capacity to flee, whether their sympathies lie with Russia or Ukraine. It used to be a thriving, vibrant city and to see it ruined in this way is very sad. There's more to say and not all of VVP's analysis regarding Donbas is incorrect, but the point is that you have to accept things as they are and not how you want.

Eastern Ukraine and even more so the middle part of the country has now become much less Russianised than it was in Soviet times, or even 30 years ago in the early days of independence (the west was never Russianised). Russia can regret that if it wants, and not everything that led to this path reflects well on Ukraine IMO, but you have to accept things as you are and not as you want them to be.

Russia trying to revisit the breakup of the Soviet Union now and add territories such as this is as ridiculous as if the UK and Northern Irish loyalists decided that they never should have let an additional three Ulster counties be part of the Irish Free State in the early 1920s so we'll claim back Donegal, Cavan, and Monaghan now. You have to let it go.

More generally, while VVP's speech the other day was pretty horrifying, the most disturbing thing I've seen in recent days was a new report on one of the state channels. They were banging on about how Ukraine wasn't really an independent state but a satellite of the USA. It was claimed that everyone in a significant state office was appointed by the Americans and Ukrainian democracy was a sham. The plan, Russian TV alleges, is to move American long-range missiles into Ukrainian territory and then launch attacks on Russia.

This is a despicably false analysis, but people in Russia are going to swallow it, unfortunately, as a pretext for regime change. (I used to think the Russian public especially gullible in this regard, but after observing the UK over the past few years I'm not quite so sure any longer.) It's very distressing.

Now, VVP's analysis that Ukraine has never been an independent state and shouldn't be one now is quite often voiced in Russia. Many people think that Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are very similar eastern Slavic peoples from the Orthodox tradition who are unified by the Russian language (large numbers of of those in the other two states who aren't first-language Russian speak it fluently), so they should be united in a single state.

But ask them whether they should invade the modern Ukrainian state, make themselves a pariah on the world stage and attract inevitable crippling economic sanctions, then of course they'll say no. It's really not remotely a big deal for them, though it evidently is for the President given his recent speech.

On the other hand, it's a different answer if you ask them whether Russia should intervene to protect, from Ukrainian persecution, fellow Russians unfortunate enough to land on the wrong side of the border. The same if you ask whether a pre-emptive strike is needed to replace a government allowing its territory to be cultivated as a launchpad for an attack on Russia.

I find it extremely distressing. But that's how propaganda works, folks. They'll largely carry the domestic population with them even though that domestic population will be a big loser from the war - not on the level of the poor people in the actual war zone, obviously, but they'll suffer nonetheless. Anyway, on that depressing note, I'm logging off for the night.
Excellent post, mate. Nice to read something insightful and actually rooted in knowledge, rather than the endless shite posted by people who've played Risk a few times and are now clearly experts on the situation.
 

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top