Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Chippy_boy]

The longer it goes on, the more bitterness, anger and resentment will grow among the Ukrainian population. This, along with stories of bravery and strong leadership, will only fuel the resistance to, and the and rejection of, Russian control. It will make Russia controlling Ukraine near impossible. Whilst it is easy for a superpower to flatten a country, controlling it is a different matter.

No-one will 'win' this conflict. Not even Russia, regardless of the weapons they use. If anything is futile, it's Russia's efforts. In the long-term, Ukraine will be an independent country and Russia will be a pariah state.

Agree with all of that. That is why I said all is not lost just because fighting stops. When fighting stops, Putin has his "face saved". He can say that his mission is successful. And then we use the full force of the sanctions to shape the resulting deal in the best possible (i.e. achievable) way. I think the complete withdrawal of all Russian forces is an entirely realistic goal.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I disagree it being futile. Russia will be brought to its knees and democracy will prevail in Ukraine

But not militarily it won't. It's militarily futile.

EDIT Unless we deploy US and EU armed forces directly and again, I think there is ZERO chance of that.

 

[SWP's back]

Can’t the CIA give a couple of drones to Ukraine? We’ve all seen footage of CIA drones reduce vehicles in Iraq to dust with frightening accuracy. It’d wipe that whole thing out in seconds.

Wouldn’t have to be CIA drones, the armed forces have hundreds of the bastards.

 

[wolviedinho]

It might sound crazy but Ukraine need to start attacking Russia. The Russian public need to stop Putin. Bring the war to their homes and hopefully it will encourage change.

I can see Ukraine being broken up into small sections to appease this madman.

 

[Scottyboi]

It might sound like a crazy but Ukraine need to start attacking Russia. The Russian public need to stop Putin. Bring the war to their homes and hopefully it will encourage change.

I can see Ukraine being broken up into small section to appease this madman.

I think that's quite a bad idea and would make the Russians believe they have an enemy and then side with Putin even more.

 

[bluesteel]

Not meaning to single you out, but replying with a more general point...

I understand everyone wants to see the weedy kid standing up to the school bully and giving him a bloody nose. Of course we want to see Putin turning around and pulling out.

But realistically, this is just not going to happen. Admirable - hugely admirable and courageous though the Ukrainian resistance may be - I honestly think it's futile. The longer it goes on, the more lives are lost, injuries sustained, buildings destroyed.

I am afraid I think there can be only one outcome here (sadly). No matter how well intentioned, I think the west's efforts to prop up the Ukrainian defence are ultimately just making it worse.

I’ve said this from the start, it was inevitable before the Russians invaded. NATO should have caved into Russia in my opinion when she mobilised troops, in regards to NATO membership and prevented all this. Obviously they’ve not and said they won’t be bullied and if you do this we’ll ruin you financially, which has partially happened, but ultimately they still paying the Russians billions a day for gas. Ukraine and her citizens have been caught in the middle with nothing to gain, as far as I can see. Sure some people will say they’re fighting for their right to join a military alliance, but unfortunately, in this case, it was always going involve a military battle, and a battle they couldn’t win.

As far as I can tell, the Russians are currently demanding recognition of the two areas in the east and Crimea, a change of government and demilitarisation, I assume that means permanent Russian troops for “protection” from NATO.

I assume once this is over we’re going to see a demand for current NATO members to leave, hopefully the financial impact is going to dissuade them from that (and it’s why it’s so important to ramp up renewables now) or it’s going to be WW3.

 

[wolviedinho]

I think that's quite a bad idea and would make the Russians believe they have an enemy and then side with Putin even more.

At the min they are sitting watching this unfold in their name. Now is their chance to remove putin. A few bombs going off in at Petersburg’s would focus Russian minds.

 

[Bazzmand Show]

It might sound crazy but Ukraine need to start attacking Russia. The Russian public need to stop Putin. Bring the war to their homes and hopefully it will encourage change.

I can see Ukraine being broken up into small sections to appease this madman.

It sounds crazy and it is crazy, they will not do that.

 

[MCFC1993]

It might sound crazy but Ukraine need to start attacking Russia. The Russian public need to stop Putin. Bring the war to their homes and hopefully it will encourage change.

I can see Ukraine being broken up into small sections to appease this madman.

I think it benefits Ukraine to stay entirely defensive.

The strategy you talk about would have happened years ago but I think it suits Ukraine to say we just want our sovereignty, leave us alone.

 

[Scottyboi]

Me and a Ukrainian back in 2010 Kyiv away when Balotelli was allergic to grass.

He was drinking beer with a triple shot of vodka in it, can't remember much of it besides having a St Patrick's day hat on from 2003 on my head haha.

 

[wolviedinho]

I think it benefits Ukraine to stay entirely defensive.

The strategy you talk about would have happened years ago but I think it suits Ukraine to say we just want our sovereignty, leave us alone.

I admire this stance but realistically how long can Ukraine hold out? If it is street to street fighting maybe but Putin is coming with a huge army and unfortunately this war is only going 1 way.

 

[mosssideblue]

But not militarily it won't. It's militarily futile.

EDIT Unless we deploy US and EU armed forces directly and again, I think there is ZERO chance of that.

Not to the Ukrainians, they will believe they can beat the odds

For sure, Russia have a much greater military advantage to call upon, but it's not always the case that the bully wins.

Ultimately, Ukraine will maintain its independence, and whilst they fight for their rights, they will get the full support from its Ally's

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

I don't see it like that.

The west's HUGE fuck up was weeks and months ago with wishy-washy talk about sanctions and not spelling out really, really, really clearly to Putin what the consequences for invasion would be and just how bad it would be for him personally. Then when he made his initial proclamation of the annexation of parts of Ukraine, we imposed really limp sanctions. This gave him a big green light to carry on.

Since then, we have to a much greater extent "thrown the book at him". Although we can still do more. But I am sure the west's response is FAR more coordinated and severe than he was bargaining on. The problem is, having gone into Ukraine - which we really should have prevented in the first place - he now has nowhere to go. He cannot back down. That's why we've really fucked up. I seriously wonder if he regrets where he is right now - I suspect he does.

And I don't see him attempting the same with e.g. Finland or Sweden. The situation is entirely different. He tried to justify the action against Ukraine on the basis that it's natural, cultural home is Russia. And even so, he's seen such and enormous domestic backlash. He cannot possibly make the same claims over Finland or Sweden etc. He'd be completely mad to even try it, and contrary to the lazy narrative, he is not mad.

Agree with all of that. We left it so late there is no off ramp for Putin to walk away, so he's at the stage where he doesn't care about kill ratios and such, only how much rubble he can leave in Ukraine.

He can't back down now because he's fucked either way.

 

[andyhinch]

Why would they though? By the sounds of things they don't agree with what's going on any more than the rest of the world.

It might sound crazy but Ukraine need to start attacking Russia. The Russian public need to stop Putin. Bring the war to their homes and hopefully it will encourage change.

I can see Ukraine being broken up into small sections to appease this madman.

You know when something sounds crazy, it’s usually because it is.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Not to the Ukrainians, they will believe they can beat the odds

For sure, Russia have a much greater military advantage to call upon, but it's not always the case that the bully wins.

Ultimately, Ukraine will maintain its independence, and whilst they fight for their rights, they will get the full support from its Ally's

So I pose the same question to you I posed to Scottyboi.

In the case of a positive outcome (for Ukraine and the west), how do you see this panning out?

 

[RandomJ]

My one worry with these sanctions is if this goes on too long they could have the opposite effect. I think they are hoping either the Russian people or one of Putin's benefactors has enough of their lives being ruined and takes action against him. But it could also have the effect of unifying them and making it a us vs them scenario and I'm not sure where things would go if it got to that.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

LBC saying that loads of ruskies are abandoning their vehicles in that convoy and fucking off

 

[mosssideblue]

It might sound crazy but Ukraine need to start attacking Russia. The Russian public need to stop Putin. Bring the war to their homes and hopefully it will encourage change.

I can see Ukraine being broken up into small sections to appease this madman.

Not sure that would be wise as the Russians would retaliate with nastier weapons, not giving any shit's for loss of civilian life. Also, the Ukraine's have finite military hardware and need that to stave off the advancement.

 

[MCFC1993]

I admire this stance but realistically how long can Ukraine hold out? If it is street to street fighting maybe but Putin is coming with a huge army and unfortunately this war is only going 1 way.

It depends how long the can delay Russia.

All these tanks and armoured vehicles Russia are coming with don't hold up well against drones and anti-tank launchers.

If the Ukraine can get air superiority with these jets that have been promised then I don't see Russia making tonnes of progress.

Economic sanctions will hurt Russia, their army will start running out of supplies.

 

[BobKowalski]

I don't see it like that.

The west's HUGE fuck up was weeks and months ago with wishy-washy talk about sanctions and not spelling out really, really, really clearly to Putin what the consequences for invasion would be and just how bad it would be for him personally. Then when he made his initial proclamation of the annexation of parts of Ukraine, we imposed really limp sanctions. This gave him a big green light to carry on.

Since then, we have to a much greater extent "thrown the book at him". Although we can still do more. But I am sure the west's response is FAR more coordinated and severe than he was bargaining on. The problem is, having gone into Ukraine - which we really should have prevented in the first place - he now has nowhere to go. He cannot back down. That's why we've really fucked up. I seriously wonder if he regrets where he is right now - I suspect he does.

And I don't see him attempting the same with e.g. Finland or Sweden. The situation is entirely different. He tried to justify the action against Ukraine on the basis that it's natural, cultural home is Russia. And even so, he's seen such and enormous domestic backlash. He cannot possibly make the same claims over Finland or Sweden etc. He'd be completely mad to even try it, and contrary to the lazy narrative, he is not mad.

The West was largely disbelieving Putin would actually invade (seems a lot of Russians didn’t think he would either) and that securing the two separatist regions was the actual objective.

Even if we had threatened this level of sanctions, I doubt if Putin would have believed the West would carry them out. The level of sanctions and unity is emotionally driven, triggered by an actual threat. Absent the reality of this threat no one would be even advocating these sanctions let alone implementing them.

I think Putin will begin to destroy Ukraine as punishment for refusing to be ‘liberated‘ and that will trigger further emotional responses - whether that extends to some military intervention, I really much doubt, but then I never thought Putin would be this reckless and I never thought the West would react so strongly, so what the fuck do I know.