Russian invasion of Ukraine

Putin imo, has already lost. He has gone too far to simply withdraw now

He may gain a short term victory in taking Ukraine, but after that he is fucked.

Worldwide condemnation and continued restrictions to their existence will result in an uprising from within, against which he will either take his own life or face an international court charged with war crimes.

The rest of the world need a strategy to ensure the nullification of his nuclear capability before either happens

I don’t see an uprising from within, as said already most Russians support what is going on. They have a totally different story to us as someone posted this morning, so if anything driving them into the ground will make them more anti-West I would imagine.
 
I don’t see an uprising from within, as said already most Russians support what is going on. They have a totally different story to us as someone posted this morning, so if anything driving them into the ground will make them more anti-West I would imagine.
Yep, too many believe the propaganda unfortunately.
 
Unfortunately it’s the absolute state of our media. If politicians don’t say we’re doing the most blah blah blah then some journalist with the IQ of a brick will ask some stupid fucking question in an attempt to make themselves stand out from the crowd. You’ve only got to look at the repeated “no fly zone” questions to have a fraction of an idea what they have to deal with - a media that doesn’t listen or understand. It preempts them wasting time having to answer the same brain dead questions from journalists who heard another brain dead journalist ask the question before and, because they are a fucking idiot, thought it was a good question.
The state of the media doesn't make Johnson boast about being world beating or world leading every time he opens his mouth, even in the most inappropriate circumstances like when he was questioned by the Ukrainian journalist yesterday. He finds it impossible to switch out of bullshit mode.

One for the Johnson thread in the Politics forum though because it's irrelevant to the invasion.
 
I don’t see an uprising from within, as said already most Russians support what is going on. They have a totally different story to us as someone posted this morning, so if anything driving them into the ground will make them more anti-West I would imagine.
Given time, your average Russian, when they can no longer afford to live, will turn
 
I largely agree with this but we do need to hold out something he can grab hold of. But with the moderates not having a voice inside the Kremlin anymore I’m not sure anything that works for Ukraine will work for them. The loons have taken over the asylum

He is not going to be stopped with appeasement.

We let him take South Ossetia and Abkhazia and were glad he didn't take the whole of Georgia.

We let him take Crimea and were glad he didn't invade Ukraine.

Now he has and people want to give him half of Ukraine to stop.

Lukashenko's war map showed they're planning to invade Transnistria and take it off Moldova.


Eventually, as scary as it is, people are going to realise that caving in to the man every time he threatens nuclear war isn't working. He will be back in 5 years time, or maybe like in Georgia they will literally just move the border forwards 100m every few weeks.

The only way he's going to be stopped is by losing. Now I'm all for keeping NATO out of it militarily and giving him no credible reason for starting WW3, but unless Ukraine retains its sovereign borders then Putin will come back.
 
Yep, too many believe the propaganda unfortunately.
I'm not equating the two but there are plenty on our side believing our propaganda too. The Russian people don't support this, the army are turning back, the Ukrainians are winning etc, the Chinese will stop this etc.

The Russian people and army are behind their leader and he's marching in to take Ukraine and fuck the consequences. That's about it.
 
He is not going to be stopped with appeasement.

We let him take South Ossetia and Abkhazia and were glad he didn't take the whole of Georgia.

We let him take Crimea and were glad he didn't invade Ukraine.

Now he has and people want to give him half of Ukraine to stop.

Lukashenko's war map showed they're planning to invade Transnistria and take it off Moldova.


Eventually, as scary as it is, people are going to realise that caving in to the man every time he threatens nuclear war isn't working. He will be back in 5 years time, or maybe like in Georgia they will literally just move the border forwards 100m every few weeks.

The only way he's going to be stopped is by losing. Now I'm all for keeping NATO out of it militarily and giving him no credible reason for starting WW3, but unless Ukraine retains its sovereign borders then Putin will come back.
That's more or less it but when the time of reckoning comes he will be allies with China, N Korea, India etc and the world will be split in two. Hopefully this will lead to a new Cold War rather than World War Three but given the nature of mankind and historical precedent, I'm not confident.
 
He doesn't want "a way out". This narrative is bullshit. He's doing exactly what he wants int he way he wants to do it and in the full knowledge that nobody will stop him.
He will need one if things get so dire for the Russian economy and once the insurgency starts, once he occupies the country.
 
I'm not equating the two but there are plenty on our side believing our propaganda too. The Russian people don't support this, the army are turning back, the Ukrainians are winning etc, the Chinese will stop this etc.

The Russian people and army are behind their leader and he's marching in to take Ukraine and fuck the consequences. That's about it.
There has been a conflict going on in eastern Ukraine for 8 years. The majority of the population of the UK and elsewhere are probably unaware of this. The Russian people will be, and they will have been given Putin's slant on it.
Not quite sure how we can change their minds.
 
It's such a mess.

Who knows what's going on in the background, but from my perspective, none of the western leaders seem to be giving any thought to what is Putin's exit option, other than "Win the war at all costs and be seen (domestically) as a great liberator and nationalist hero" or "Go home with your tail between your legs, face domestic upheaval, revolt and your probably overthrow and likely death". And yet somehow we seem to think he will just decide to choose the latter??? Mind boggling stupidity on our part.

Unless we (the west and Ukraine) change course, then I think the fall of Ukraine to the Russians is absolutely inevitable (barring some shock assassination of Putin in the next week or so, which we must assume is a long shot (no pun intended)).
Putin will also be very mindful of what happened in Chechnya in 1999 which he effectively oversaw with Yeltsins departure, it was officially packaged by him to the Russian people as a 'counter terrorist operation' (sound familiar?) and the events of that war are well known to cast a dark shadow over him as this was also apparently going to be a swift victory as he told everyone which it wasn't.

The Chechens held out with insurgent attacks for about 8 years and even brought the battle to Russian cities with apartment bombings etc - It was a disaster of an operation on all fronts really but he at least had the excuse of being a rooky back then. Big difference then of course was he did not have to face global crippling sanctions for his atrocities on the Chechens but still took a hit with his domestic audience for the casualties his army was taking which was around 7,000 or so and I suspect he is already very close to that figure in Ukraine after 6 days.

I don't see Ukraine ever falling to the Russians in the conventional sense and even Putin will be aware of this as the supply of arms for future Ukrainian insurgents will be far greater and far more advanced than what the Chechens could ever dream of getting.
 
Putin imo, has already lost. He has gone too far to simply withdraw now

He may gain a short term victory in taking Ukraine, but after that he is fucked.

Worldwide condemnation and continued restrictions to their existence will result in an uprising from within, against which he will either take his own life or face an international court charged with war crimes.

The rest of the world need a strategy to ensure the nullification of his nuclear capability before either happens
Totally agree with that. I just find some opinions that if we can just hold out a bit longer Putin will just pack up and go home, staggeringly naive.

The only way he stops this is when there's something he can "sell" to his electorate.
 
He will need one if things get so dire for the Russian economy and once the insurgency starts, once he occupies the country.
The insurgency will be bloody and costly but he won't care. I guess that links with china and his gas supplies and further negotations with the west will save his economy too. I don't believe he's blundering into this with no end game. I think the end game is a New World Order.
 
I don’t see an uprising from within, as said already most Russians support what is going on. They have a totally different story to us as someone posted this morning, so if anything driving them into the ground will make them more anti-West I would imagine.

I'm not equating the two but there are plenty on our side believing our propaganda too. The Russian people don't support this, the army are turning back, the Ukrainians are winning etc, the Chinese will stop this etc.

The Russian people and army are behind their leader and he's marching in to take Ukraine and fuck the consequences. That's about it.

It's not propaganda that 2,000 people were arrested for protesting, the biggest since Navalny was arrested and 20,000 people were arrested and beaten.

It's not propaganda that Russia has taken down twitter and Facebook to stop people seeing what's going on.

It's not propaganda that they've closed down the only Russian TV station that aired negative opinions of the government.

It's not propaganda that dozens of high profile Russian celebrities have spoken out against the war.


Putin is not doing these things because he has universal support for his invasion. A crackdown on free press and media comes when things are getting unruly and you need to stop the damage.
 
It’s insecurity because we aren’t in the lead in anything any more.

The fall of Ukraine to the Russians has always been inevitable and is how this will play out, followed by a bloody and endless insurgency war.
Which, coupled with enormously crippling economic sanctions, will set Russia back decades. With the West apparently militarily impotent, he can delude himself into believing that Russia can be resurgent and that the world order is irrevocably changing, but after decades enjoying improved living standards and softer lifestyles, it’s hard to imagine how Russians will stomach a decade of self-inflicted hardship.
 
Putin is 69. He will be deteriorating physically and mentally. A future guerilla war / insurgency might last longer than him. Is this a case for optimism ....or not?
 
It's not propaganda that 2,000 people were arrested for protesting, the biggest since Navalny was arrested and 20,000 people were arrested and beaten.

It's not propaganda that Russia has taken down twitter and Facebook to stop people seeing what's going on.

It's not propaganda that they've closed down the only Russian TV station that aired negative opinions of the government.

It's not propaganda that dozens of high profile Russian celebrities have spoken out against the war.


Putin is not doing these things because he has universal support for his invasion. A crackdown on free press and media comes when things are getting unruly and you need to stop the damage.
All those things are true but as others have pointed out, he still has mass support and ultimate authority. Holding out hope that his own people will stop this is going to be futile in the short term. Every sanction imposed on the Russian people can be spun as an attack by the evil west. The average Russian on the street has spent their whole lives hating America and us. They are the ones who put him in power, not the educated. You've seen what has happened over here and in the states.

In the long term, well who knows?
 

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